NorthArlington101 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 I'm tired of things being either put in the Digital Snow thread or the Obs/Disco thread so I think its time for this. I genuinely think Western areas have a shot at a storm this weekend and that others have a chance to see first flakes. The GEFS has looked better in earlier runs (18z yesterday, woof), but this isn't an awful look. Decent amount of members give something trackable. Looked best yesterday at 18z, so maybe a sign. Yet a couple of other things have hopped on. 0z CMC was probably the first legit OP run in short-range this year. Heckuva western burbs run. The EURO and the EPS were also fairly interesting as well. EURO showed an appreciable increase in the strength of the low and hence the cold of the system. 850s in the western burbs hung around 0-1C with temps around 35F. Wouldn't take much for a pasting out there, IMO. This is yesterdays (12z) EURO Control, which definitely suggested following along. Below is today's (0z) EURO Control, which still is very interesting. The EURO OP also got on board and is an appreciable step up from 0z. Welcome to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 12z OPS (CMC/EURO) and ens (EPS not out yet though) all took a step backwards. Low is weaker and temps are warmer. EURO went from a 993mb low off the Delmarva to a 998mb low. GFS moved in the right direction with a more consolidated & stronger low, but would need to be closer to the coast. Something I've noticed looking at better runs and ensemble members is that slower is better for this chance. GEFS still has some good members (for October 22nd) but has definitely backed off from where it was yesterday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 See what you've done lad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: See what you've done lad? Classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 See what you've done lad?Thread = dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 That said, the number of interesting EPS members remains fairly constant if not slightly improved, so there is that. I’ll take e24 and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 We needed a long range thread at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Thread = dead Nah lol. Long way to go yet for the late week into next weekend period- and even into the following week. Looks active, with possibly 2 storms moving through the area. At this point the far western highlands (if significant precip gets there) would be the place for any threat of frozen. Probably a long shot for anything other than rain in the western burbs of DC/Baltimore. Certainly not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Nah lol. Long way to go yet for the late week into next weekend period- and even into the following week. Looks active, with possibly 2 storms moving through the area. At this point the far western highlands (if significant precip gets there) would be the place for any threat of frozen. Probably a long shot for anything other than rain in the western burbs of DC/Baltimore. Certainly not impossible. Best shot at anyone besides the mountains/extreme western burbs seeing frozen is probably with the follow up impulse that runs through from the west as the initial low runs up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Best shot at anyone besides the mountains/extreme western burbs seeing frozen is probably with the follow up impulse that runs through from the west as the initial low runs up the coast. Agreed! Would be mixed mangled flake at best (from what I gather) and all the sun angle latent heat issues galore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Best shot at anyone besides the mountains/extreme western burbs seeing frozen is probably with the follow up impulse that runs through from the west as the initial low runs up the coast. Possibly yeah. Convoluted at this point on the guidance. The initial low could end up a significant rainer for I-95 and east, and not too much N&W. The trailing energy looks interesting, but might end up developing into more of a threat for our friends to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 I will take my 18 and like it.....In all honesty it is nice to be back to talking about the winter for real. It has been COLD out here the past couple of mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 What a nice looking system on the gfs...if this were winter. It’ll be fun tracking regardless but anytime a sub 1000mb low tucked into VA Beach and stalling for 12+ hours shows up I can’t help but be a little upset this isn’t just 30 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: What a nice looking system on the gfs...if this were winter. It’ll be fun tracking regardless but anytime a sub 1000mb low tucked into VA Beach and stalling for 12+ hours shows up I can’t help but be a little upset this isn’t just 30 days later. Classic Miller A. Maybe a good sign of things to come if you are into the whole atmospheric memory thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Classic Miller A. Maybe a good sign of things to come if you are into the whole atmospheric memory thing? Yup. I couldn’t care less about tracking wet flakes in October or most of November. It’s not worth it. What is worth it is seeing a pattern of coastals running into chilly air, because while it may or may not portend a similar atmospheric setup for when it really counts, I’d much rather have this than hope that a stable, crap-looking pattern flips in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: Yup. I couldn’t care less about tracking wet flakes in October or most of November. It’s not worth it. What is worth it is seeing a pattern of coastals running into chilly air, because while it may or may not portend a similar atmospheric setup for when it really counts, I’d much rather have this than hope that a stable, crap-looking pattern flips in our favor. OK - I agree! Let's hope for repeats with colder highs to the north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Latest Euro weeklies (through Dec 7) is -1.5 to -2.0 as the 2m temp anomaly and slightly above average precip (precip looks to be Nino-like with negative departures along Gulf/SE/into Mid Atlantic). Give me this look throughout the rest of December and I'd be shocked if we got out of the month with 0" snowfall. ETA: This is for the 46 day mean btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 11 hours ago, nj2va said: Latest Euro weeklies (through Dec 7) is -1.5 to -2.0 as the 2m temp anomaly and slightly above average precip (precip looks to be Nino-like with negative departures along Gulf/SE/into Mid Atlantic). Give me this look throughout the rest of December and I'd be shocked if we got out of the month with 0" snowfall. ETA: This is for the 46 day mean btw. Looking at the 500 mb heights- one noticeable change from the previous run, especially beyond mid Nov, are generally lower heights in the NA. NPAC still looks quite favorable with lower heights near the Aleutians and EPO/PNA ridge. eta- neutral to slighty +AO, +NAO. Pacific driven. Looks changeable overall, with colder/milder periods, but no prolonged warmth. Pretty much what you would expect with no NA blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Just now, losetoa6 said: Just for fun + giggles. 90 minute loop I found from 10-29-11 showing the r/s line advancing east . People can claim that early snow in the general DC-Baltimore area doesn’t mean anything either way in terms of how winter will turn out, but I know I get jittery when it happens (or threatens to happen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 If we have another bad winter, I reserve the right to tar and pitchfork you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I swear we've got one more 80 degree day in us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I swear we've got one more 80 degree day in us Nope, not this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Can we pin this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: 2 coastals in 3 days lol...lots of left over vort energy this Gfs run to spawn another Coastal Late Monday evening... In winter, these can be fun if they help establish cold air behind the first system. The second wave! In this case.. just more rain - I do not think this would have supported a snow chance later in the year either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: In winter, these can be fun if they help establish cold air behind the first system. The second wave! In this case.. just more rain - I do not think this would have supported a snow chance later in the year either. Given the height pattern all of these would be snow threats December to March. It's just too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: 2 coastals in 3 days lol...lots of left over vort energy this Gfs run to spawn another Coastal Late Monday evening... Hey @BTRWx's Thanks Giving Think these will get us to that magic 3.5 inches of precip forthe month? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 ohhhh yeah, pinned LR thread. Winter is so close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Given the height pattern all of these would be snow threats December to March. It's just too early. Violently agree. Baroclinic boundary is more onshore this time of year as well which guides this storm inland vs a winter case where they typically stay offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 What a great set up for Saturday. Great track. 4 weeks later is probably all we would of needed for a snow threat. Let's hope atmospheric memory exists lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Its preseason. Lets start to get this right now so we get the desired result when it actually counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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