MarkO Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Do Nor'Easters want to develop and pass near to the benchmark based on physics? It seems as though the benchmark would be the top of the bell curve, or in other words do lows have a propensity to gravitate towards the benchmark? It seems that way to me and often get model shifts towards that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I think it has to do with Geography and topography. Also cities that have building seem to destroy systems therefore they cut underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 About half of the Euro ensembles give us pretty good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 49 minutes ago, MarkO said: Do Nor'Easters want to develop and pass near to the benchmark based on physics? It seems as though the benchmark would be the top of the bell curve, or in other words do lows have a propensity to gravitate towards the benchmark? It seems that way to me and often get model shifts towards that direction. No. I'm pretty sure the "BM" was used as a general lat/long where storms passing near or at that location most greatly affected SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Man what a beast She is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Odd to see the 12z EPS with more or less same intensity SLP as the Euro op and GFS op at 96 hr. Imo that’s a red flag the ops are too weak given the overall set up. AO and NAO quite favorable heading into the event for a highly anomalous storm system. I think we’ll see some trends back towards the solutions we saw a few days back. Expecting some sort of middle ground solution to verify—slower track along the east coast to allow better phase interaction with PV dropping in through the Plains. Also worth noting the HP over New Brunswick has been trending stronger for many runs now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Odd to see the 12z EPS with more or less same intensity SLP as the Euro op and GFS op at 96 hr. Imo that’s a red flag the ops are too weak given the overall set up. AO and NAO quite favorable heading into the event for a highly anomalous storm system. I think we’ll see some trends back towards the solutions we saw a few days back. Expecting some sort of middle ground solution to verify—slower track along the east coast to allow better phase interaction with PV dropping in through the Plains. Also worth noting the HP over New Brunswick has been trending stronger for many runs now... Keep any eye on that high pressing the cold south, Its probably not done trending colder at the surface, Lows are in the single digits over Northern Maine saturday morning so there is a cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Willing to travel/chase this weekend maybe grab a couple milfs from squat rack and bring em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Pope J P has returned from sabbatical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 There's a lot of wave interference with this in recent model runs... In fact, there's a discerned trend to really have the deeper whole-scale amplitude take place a day and half later beyond Sunday. These features are coming off the Pacific Basin at a low trajectory - i.e., not as much in the physical soundings. It's not entirely clear to me the models have a firm handle on what material they really want to use in conjunction with the L/W amplification. They could start backing off the lead - they could come back with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2018 Author Share Posted October 24, 2018 2 hours ago, jbenedet said: Odd to see the 12z EPS with more or less same intensity SLP as the Euro op and GFS op at 96 hr. Imo that’s a red flag the ops are too weak given the overall set up. AO and NAO quite favorable heading into the event for a highly anomalous storm system. I think we’ll see some trends back towards the solutions we saw a few days back. Expecting some sort of middle ground solution to verify—slower track along the east coast to allow better phase interaction with PV dropping in through the Plains. Also worth noting the HP over New Brunswick has been trending stronger for many runs now... Asptesantus, welcome back jb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pope J P has returned from sabbatical. Maybe I'll get threatened by a lawsuit or something again for calling someone The Pope. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 The rivah with 12'' over night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Well hopefully at the least we can get some wind damage around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Although it's still clown range for the 3-km NAM, the distinct possibility is there for an isothermal wind driven blue bomb here on Saturday morning before the warmth comes in and flips it to cold rain Saturday afternoon. Maybe I can test out the new snow blower??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaxSki Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 6 hours ago, wxmanmitch said: Although it's still clown range for the 3-km NAM, the distinct possibility is there for an isothermal wind driven blue bomb here on Saturday morning before the warmth comes in and flips it to cold rain Saturday afternoon. Maybe I can test out the new snow blower??? I hope so I’ll be just north of you Skiing at Mt Snow. Maybe we can stay mostly Snow until afternoon !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 minute ago, LaxSki said: I hope so I’ll be just north of you Skiing at Mt Snow. Maybe we can stay mostly Snow until afternoon !!! Hopefully the wind doesn't turn the bubbles into kites. 6 hours ago, wxmanmitch said: Although it's still clown range for the 3-km NAM, the distinct possibility is there for an isothermal wind driven blue bomb here on Saturday morning before the warmth comes in and flips it to cold rain Saturday afternoon. Maybe I can test out the new snow blower??? Can definitely see it starting as snow at that elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaxSki Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Hopefully the wind doesn't turn the bubbles into kites. Can definitely see it starting as snow at that elevation. 4 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Hopefully the wind doesn't turn the bubbles into kites. Can definitely see it starting as snow at that elevation. At the very least it will be an interesting weather day for the opening day of the Ski Season in October no less!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 I’m planning to sleep on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m planning to sleep on this. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Closing my one eye that I had on it. It is only going to make a fun dinner out into a soggy, cold mess. We were going to eat at a place in ORH that has these plastic geodesic domes set up on their patio to dine outside in cool wetaher. Instead we will dine inside with the plebes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: AWT Hopefully we can salvage Sunday as rain free out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 41 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m planning to sleep on this. You should know better Dendy(lol)....Ginxy warned you not to sleep on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 40-55 mph should be enough to knock some over with leaves on trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 40-55 mph should be enough to knock some over with leaves on trees Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 55 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m planning to sleep on this. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Coast Yup, not inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats Try 43.43,-71.62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Looking like Wildcat area is the place to ski this weekend. Should at least start as snow. Already looks like mid-winter up there: https://www.skiwildcat.com/web-cams/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Try 43.43,-71.62 My name is Thumpity pronounced Humpity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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