CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: GFS may have warm biases (...or not) but so to does "October" Anyway, ... large scale structural components do have some text-book aspects about them. Literally...the nearer term Maine exit cyclogenesis and backside CAA looks right out of the K.U. catalog derived check-list, because at that time, ...it could be providing subsequent E.C. cyclone with cold air arriving 36 hours. There are multiple isobars crossing the sub-540 dm thicknesses with this lead system - i.e., deep layer CAA. The problem is then two folds... How much? 2nd, the models appear as though they are moderating that cold too soon - however, by what standards? I'm not sure what the recovery rate on air masses of the -1 or -2 SD in the critical thickness levels ( < 700 mb ) really is in late October. As 2011 demonstrated, sometimes we need to get in tighter to the event before the models "see" the extend/magnitude of that particular component. For that matter ... I'd love to share an email with the moder(s) at NCEP ..whether the global-based numerical guidance 'factors' in climatology prior to release and consumption for the public. I am wondering if that cold complexion recovery speed might be caused because if there is an anomaly the models "might" be working a bit hard to normalize - I think the only thing that might factor in, is solar. Perhaps the late Feb sun could cause it to warm a little too quickly, but unlike MOS guidance, models should only spit out temps based off of equations etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think the only thing that might factor in, is solar. Perhaps the late Feb sun could cause it to warm a little too quickly, but unlike MOS guidance, models should only spit out temps based off of equations etc. Yeah, that could be it... And agreed - one would think that temps ...and thus, integrated thickness intervals, should be seen prior to adulteration by the artistry of the industry -heh. It just seems awful fast how quickly that's warming... But, the high is also not retreating in the best location... A bit eastward ballast - should impart a pretty hefty long shore fetch and forget it - I dunno... a few things need to happen for cold enthusiasts - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think the only thing that might factor in, is solar. Perhaps the late Feb sun could cause it to warm a little too quickly, but unlike MOS guidance, models should only spit out temps based off of equations etc. Mid-Feb angle by the weekend (nitpick alert), though the SSTs being 15° warmer than mid Feb will also be in play for any wind off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 6 minutes ago, tamarack said: Mid-Feb angle by the weekend (nitpick alert), though the SSTs being 15° warmer than mid Feb will also be in play for any wind off the water. Yes yes..well a week won't matter that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 In CT we trust might as well get used to it fellas LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Weenie-athon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Weenie-athon such fun better than doing the dew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: such fun better than doing the dew Lead the charge chief, lets go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 ACATT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 First low is setting up a 50/50 low, oh boy Euro is getting interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Looks icy here on the 12z Euro with mountain snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: First low is setting up a 50/50 low, oh boy Euro is getting interesting Look at the ridging ahead of the SLP. Nowhere to run to baby, no where to hide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Timing of s/w's needs a lot of work on models for any agreement. Seems like if you want frozen, hope the first low is a beast near the GFS position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 First things first. Maniacs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Snow is a great combination with fully foliated trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Single digit 2 m temps in Northern Maine on saturday ahead of the low arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Single digit 2 m temps in Northern Maine on saturday ahead of the low arrival. Its kickoff season. Those expectations of snow should be kept in check. My bet is Pete Dendritic land and you see accumulated snow by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: 'Tis the season. Coming from DC, it's refreshing to see weenies and buns running amok rather than despair and panic incinerating the board, though one never trails too far from the other. What is acatt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: What is acatt All Cold All The Time. That's a Kevin term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: All Cold All The Time. That's a Kevin term. Ok lol. Yea well not this time, first SW could be a big deal for the moose. I rather they just keep piling it up up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: All cold all the time? Where are you now. One minute you are in DC. Then NC. Change your screen name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 Just keep this in the back of your mind. Around Sunday ... Nor`Easter. Better model forecast agreement. High pressure NE ahead of a surface low drawn back, stacking beneath the mid-upper level low. Cyclonic conveyor belt motions, trowaling over isallobaric, undercutting colder air, watching wet-bulbs. Potential banding signatures with deformation zones. Still uncertainty, model spread with both strength and timing. However anomalous ensemble signals emerging. While some indication of NW high terrain wet snow with leafed trees the bigger concern is 11 ft Boston high tides with a 3-4 standard deviation E onshore flow. If low bombs, the greater the concern. Patience for now, evaluate later forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 26 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Snow is a great combination with fully foliated trees. 90% leaf drop here, not an issue unless these events ramp up into feet rather than inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: ACATT What does that mean edit...all cold all the time. got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 All cold all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Listen Weather Bro's, there's a better chance of one of us hitting mega millions than this thing snowing more than a sloppy wet inch. At least for anyone south of Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Its kickoff season. Those expectations of snow should be kept in check. My bet is Pete Dendritic land and you see accumulated snow by the weekend. Mid-week has a shot too with NW flow and some cyclonic moisture. I think we'll see more flakes flying. Been a lot of days with flakes flying lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 1 hour ago, tamarack said: 90% leaf drop here, not an issue unless these events ramp up into feet rather than inches. 90% foliated here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 Don't sleep on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.