40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Bomb Euro looks pretty tame to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro looks pretty tame to me. Alot of snow for interior new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Euro brings a nice thump ORH west and north. Even crashes the snowline just about to the coast at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro brings a nice thump ORH west and north. Even crashes the snowline just about to the coast at the end meh, coast gets maybe some flakes but looks good western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 What a bunch of weenies. It' above 0C at 850 into ern NY state. That's not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 It crashes as it develops, but that is a Catskills and Dacks event. Not SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 It's cold at 925, so maybe sleet. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Let’s get soaken wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It crashes as it develops, but that is a Catskills and Dacks event. Not SNE. We'll post plenty of pics for you guys and gals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, cny rider said: We'll post plenty of pics for you guys and gals. You should do it now before everything is east this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Too bad there's no real cold air up here for this potential bomb. Elbow of Cape 975mb on 12z gifs perfect track for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 ... I've read some post in here re the October statistics as bearing some correlation with ensuing DJF ... or maybe NDJFM ... whatever. I'll just add this quick opine fwiw - My experience is that there is a 'tendency' for storm frequency/active weather pattern establishment during the cool transition season. In fact, I might be inclined to say pattern tendency ... However, that does not say much about temperature anomaly distribution ( an equally important distinction). But, perhaps most importantly, "tendency" is far from "certainty." In dealing with any public domain, one needs to be careful though... Because even in making that caveat emptor, suppose an active October then happens to not precede an unusually stormy active winter. Any such audacious Meteorologist will then be summarily bent over a ceremonial reputation ram-rod. The qualifiers are missed ... I dunno, in lieu of what filtering wanted to hear: October .... storm ... = DJF, Kleenex and lotion. I just don't have as much of a problem in seeing a stormy year parlay off of an active autumn. I'll leave it at that. As far as this thing ... the problem I am seeing with the GFS operational runs (and I'm not sure upon using the free products, if the Euro is doing the same thing..,) is that there is a leading convective feed-back issue near the latitudes of the Va Capes... The spatial separation (as in distance...) between that early spin up, and the main trough amplitude is shrinking on average across successive runs ... as that gap closes, the model "might" be opting to wait for better forcing to detonate a coastal low. But, if you look at the vorticity products, you really can see small shrapnel seem to spontaneously spawn in the flow there and sort of closes off from the inside out over 18 or so hours once that initiates ... This then feeds back (I believe) on an erroneous early low that even bombs quite a bit... i suspect as we get closer that will continue to correct smoother and any more meaningful coastal cyclogen waits for the main trough amplitude. So...that's long -winded (pun intended...) for describing a look more guided by convective feedback. A storm will likely evolve in the period in question but those details are highly suspect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 Amazing signals now, should be fun and our first winter type pattern test of the new GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Amazing signals now, should be fun and our first winter type pattern test of the new GFS The timing is not that far off from giving first coatings to many, the sourced cold air to the north is just a wee bit stale by the time the Low gets latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Interior snows on the latest 0zs runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 There’s zero cold air. It’s a Rainer for all with a damaging wind threat for all as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s zero cold air. It’s a Rainer for all with a damaging wind threat for all as well This is false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This is false The truth shall set you free . Sure the mtns in NY state and VT could see snow, but most of NE it’s too warm . JB seeing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The truth shall set you free . Sure the mtns in NY state and VT could see snow, but most of NE it’s too warm . JB seeing it Looks like the interior areas of northern New England will see snow. Check out the latest Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 October snow means crappy winter... let's hope for rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 38 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This is false Check out the 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Ineedweenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 30 minutes ago, Whineminster said: October snow means crappy winter... let's hope for rain Not really There have been good winters with snow in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 55 minutes ago, Whineminster said: October snow means crappy winter... let's hope for rain Depends on where. Accumulating an inch in Boston in October correlates to a poor winter but if Boston gets a smaller amount that correlation doesn’t apply. And it’s only Boston. Worcester has no such correlation. But beware-sample size renders these correlations relatively useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Depends on where. Accumulating an inch in Boston in October correlates to a poor winter but if Boston gets a smaller amount that correlation doesn’t apply. And it’s only Boston. Worcester has no such correlation. But beware-sample size renders these correlations relatively useless. PTSD over 1 storm is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: The truth shall set you free . Sure the mtns in NY state and VT could see snow, but most of NE it’s too warm . JB seeing it Rainer for all, except for some, sounds reasonable at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Koochie coochie Coo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 47 minutes ago, weathafella said: Depends on where. Accumulating an inch in Boston in October correlates to a poor winter but if Boston gets a smaller amount that correlation doesn’t apply. And it’s only Boston. Worcester has no such correlation. But beware-sample size renders these correlations relatively useless. Amen brother. Good post about sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 6Z GFS How you doin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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