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Annual end of Oct blockbuster

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Modfan said:

I agree, wont see those totals but I wouldnt be surprised to see a dusting or light glaze in the Worcester Hills/Bershires and NW CT; maybe even slight coating in Union.

Yeah possible. I need to look first. Some of those clown maps are also spitting out soundings with a sneaky warm layer....so clowns they are.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I took a look at a 3KM sounding near Gene up in NH. Initially there will be deep layer lift so legit snow may happen to start. There is some warm air near 850-800, but it's not a very warm or deep layer. So it may very well be SNPL for a time there before it finally warms up above 800mb. This storm actually dries out the DGZ very quickly, so any real snows may be limited. Looks like it could be a peltfest for awhile, esp further NE you go. 

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A few mangled flakes does not excite me.       Enjoy it up north though.   I would rather this event didn't happen at all.  Give me clear and dry for several weekends please

couldn't agree more. i would be ok if this was a midweek event. having it destroy almost an entire weekend makes me sad. too many leaves to clean up, which you certainly don't want to do in the rain.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted 
Precipitation...
With moderately high PWATS and some banding possible as the
warm/cold front develop offshore, expect some periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall. This will be highest mainly across
SE MA and RI, closest to the approaching front. However, with E
flow, Worcester Hills and Berkshires are likely to see higher
rainfall amounts. Current rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with a
few 2-4 inch amounts are possible, with these higher totals
focused across the SE and during the late morning and afternoon.
Will also need to monitor the risk for late day convection,
associated with the warm frontal passage (mainly across SE
MA/RI) as this is where highest rainfall rates could be
observed. Overall, typical urban and poor drainage flooding will
be the most likely impact from the rainfall, but it will
increase the wind threat due to ground softening.

Note, early AM temps will be very close, if not below freezing
at precip onset mainly in the higher terrain of
Franklin/Hampshire and N Worcester COs. A mix of SN/PL are
possible during the early morning hours with some very localized
icy conditions possible.
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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I took a look at a 3KM sounding near Gene up in NH. Initially there will be deep layer lift so legit snow may happen to start. There is some warm air near 850-800, but it's not a very warm or deep layer. So it may very well be SNPL for a time there before it finally warms up above 800mb. This storm actually dries out the DGZ very quickly, so any real snows may be limited. Looks like it could be a peltfest for awhile, esp further NE you go. 

My concern is that the initial strong forcing, and heavy midday QPF, is mostly snow. Then that warmer/drier air punches into the mid level and we -PLFZDZDZ after that.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the input guys.   I have learned living up here that CAD almost always overperforms.  I see it happen over and over and over.  Good radiational cooling the first part of the night to cool near the surface.  No early morning sun to warm it up.  Snow comes in.  I guess the key would be the initial intensity before any changeover.  A dusting or a few  quick inches?.  Then do I warm and rot at 32F with ZR/IP or go to 34F cold rain?  Will be fun to watch it unfold. Could be a very slippery, slushy morning.  Joe Public has no idea as forecasts/TV up here seem to be focused more on Manchester/Concord which will certainly be liquid after any quick start of frozen.

Our trees are still 75% or more in leaf.  ( See webcam pic I just took) My birches could take a hit with a couple of inches of glop or some ZR.  I have been trying to figure out why my area is lagging behind others with leaf drop.  My new theory is in the fall Newfound Lake keeps me a bit warmer.  Lake is just to the west by 1 mile so prevailing winds could raise my averages just enough to make a difference??.  I don't know.

Our 1000 person town doesn't have the sander/plow on our trucks.  Our town road agent is an old time geyser tough type of guy. His name is Buck, that tells you everything you have to know.   I have stopped by in situations like this to give the highway dept  (3 guys) a heads up.  Buck  just nodes at me dismissively and tells me they follow accuweather.

Anyhow a fun morning weatherwise for the few of us AMWX posters up here.

 

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