HoarfrostHubb Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 How low was the last Oct 27(I think that date is right) low? edit. Oct 29 and looks like it got to 972? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Euro is a hell of a storm. Gfs isn’t nearly as robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 How’s the tides Ginxy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Actually fairly high. Near 11’ in the harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Me thinks Euro Gone Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Is the Euro coming out at 06z and 18z yet?? I remember that being talked about a lil while back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Good lord Euro lol. Lets revisit this idea in 6 weeks, please and thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 3:37 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see October 2005 in that list...even I had a couple of inches in that. Expand 15"+ on the public lands just west of Greenville. Many acres of (previously nice) young hardwood stands got torn apart by that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 So what date is the euro exactly showing for this? And it’s really showing hurricane force winds to the surface at the NE coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Nevermind. Looks to be a Sunday deal or Sunday night into Monday which would be the 28th-29th interestingly enough. The GFS has a sheared inland mess in its 06z run but the FV3-GFS has a significant storm closer to the coast than the Euro albeit 35mb weaker than the said Euro. Hopefully they hold and others come on board as this would be the first fun week of tracking in the nor’easter season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Start boarding up now James! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Big coastals in autumn are always a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 4:21 PM, weathafella said: Big coastals in autumn are always a good sign. Expand I won't lie, but that to me is like saying October snow is a bad thing. Is there actually any evidence of this or is it just more of a "it can't be a bad thing to see storms this time of year"? It seems like even crappy winters have autumn storms... like 2011, or 2006 there were huge October storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 4:21 PM, weathafella said: Big coastals in autumn are always a good sign. Expand Just saying watch this one. Last Oct started like this 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 4:38 PM, WxWatcher007 said: GFS blows something up this run, it's just well offshore. Not sure if big fall coastals or October snows are bad for winter, but not boring is good. Expand It wasn't that far off from the Euro solution. A ton of energy on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 4:31 PM, powderfreak said: I won't lie, but that to me is like saying October snow is a bad thing. Is there actually any evidence of this or is it just more of a "it can't be a bad thing to see storms this time of year"? It seems like even crappy winters have autumn storms... like 2011, or 2006 there were huge October storms. Expand Lots of correlation data between the number and low pressure of Autumns storms and the following 3 to 4 months of weather. Deep deep wet storms seem to be on the rise. With this insane coastal SST gradient set up, the increasing snow cover buildup in Eastern Canada looks like another crazy wild 5 months ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Gfs is all over the place after Day 5, really represents the chaotic nature of the upcoming pattern. First -NAO pattern since last spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 4:43 PM, Ginx snewx said: Lots of correlation data between the number and low pressure of Autumns storms and the following 3 to 4 months of weather. Deep deep wet storms seem to be on the rise. With this insane coastal SST gradient set up, the increasing snow cover buildup in Eastern Canada looks like another crazy wild 5 months ahead Expand Yup. The October snow thing is kind of tongue in cheek but it makes sense if you think about the rubber band snapping on some level. But our pattern flipped in mid October. 2002 analogue for 2002-03 winter to me works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 4:21 PM, weathafella said: Big coastals in autumn are always a good sign. Expand Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 4:47 PM, weathafella said: Yup. The October snow thing is kind of tongue in cheek but it makes sense if you think about the rubber band snapping on some level. But our pattern flipped in mid October. 2002 analogue for 2002-03 winter to me works. Expand Euro seasonal reminds me of 2002-2003...was telling Will and scooter that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 4:57 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro seasonal reminds me of 2002-2003...was telling Will and scooter that. Expand Been my analog since July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 5:04 PM, Ginx snewx said: Been my analog since July Expand My only issue with that analog is ENSO was a good bit stronger...I think this season will be more N stream and won't be as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 This is wassup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 5:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: My only issue with that analog is ENSO was a good bit stronger...I think this season will be more N stream and won't be as cold. Expand I will answer in the winter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 4:43 PM, Ginx snewx said: Lots of correlation data between the number and low pressure of Autumns storms and the following 3 to 4 months of weather. Deep deep wet storms seem to be on the rise. With this insane coastal SST gradient set up, the increasing snow cover buildup in Eastern Canada looks like another crazy wild 5 months ahead Expand I'd be curious to see some of that correlation data, just from a pure skeptical standpoint. I just feel like I can come up with big autumn storms in both crappy and great winters. Maybe I'm looking at it wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 4:39 PM, Ginx snewx said: Just saying watch this one. Last Oct started like this 10 days out. Expand Good Lord, lots of 2 pennant+ barbs on the east side of the storm. How often do you see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 5:50 PM, powderfreak said: I'd be curious to see some of that correlation data, just from a pure skeptical standpoint. I just feel like I can come up with big autumn storms in both crappy and great winters. Maybe I'm looking at it wrong though. Expand Go research its out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 6:00 PM, Go Kart Mozart said: Good Lord, lots of 2 pennant+ barbs on the east side of the storm. How often do you see that? Expand And it's gone on the 12z Euro Very fickle situation All about timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 5:50 PM, powderfreak said: I'd be curious to see some of that correlation data, just from a pure skeptical standpoint. I just feel like I can come up with big autumn storms in both crappy and great winters. Maybe I'm looking at it wrong though. Expand I’d like to see it too. On 10/20/2018 at 6:43 PM, Ginx snewx said: Go research its out there. Expand Do you have the time to do it for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 6:48 PM, Snow88 said: And it's gone on the 12z Euro Very fickle situation All about timing Expand Surely will happen run to run. Watch EPS until day 5 or 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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