Burghblizz Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: In the wake of the most recent rainfall (0.33"), year-to-date precipitation in Pittsburgh stands at 57.08". That ranks as the second highest annual figure on record. The record is 57.41", which was established in 2004. One more system is likely to impact Pittsburgh before 2018 concludes. At present, a moderate rainfall appears likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the recent guidance, the implied probabilities are as follows: No precipitation: 3% Measurable precipitation: 97% 0.25" or more: 88% 0.50" or more: 69% 0.75" or more: 42% 1.00" or more: 18% New annual record (0.34" or more): 82% Therefore, at least at this point in time, it appears very likely that Pittsburgh will set a new annual precipitation record. Great info....wish some of that would have translated into a big snowfall year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 EPS 46 day starts to hint at a cooler pattern after the first week of January. Also worth noting that the models are also hinting at some blocking to the north. Could keep some cold air locked in for a decent stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Sneaky system tonight, may be able to pick up a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Sneaky system tonight, may be able to pick up a dusting There's been a few tiny flakes in the air this afternoon. The local AFD does mention some activity mostly near I-80, but I'm sure we'll get a flurry or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Not much to discuss Winterwx wise.. I expected by this time a decent pattern change would be in the works. Mjo lagging in the warm phases at a fairly high amplitude seems to be driving the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 GFS looking interesting by around Thursday....the ever elusive Piedmont runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 FV3 has something to though not as good as GFS. Models have been pretty jumpy but that 3rd-4th window has been popping up a few runs now though not all affect us. Either way it would be nice to have even some snow falling even if it doesn't amount to much. I give it about the same odds as the Steelers making the playoffs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Applying the sensitivity analysis to today's guidance through 18z (excluding the FV3), the implied probability of Pittsburgh's receiving 0.34" or more precipitation to set a new annual precipitation mark has increased to 88%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 We can't even do warm days right, with the real warmth arriving after sunset. Gusty winds though to blow in the new year. I'll be driving back to NC tomorrow where snow chances are even more bleak, but no complaints given the foot we received a few weeks back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 At 4:35 pm, daily rainfall at Pittsburgh reached 0.34". That brings total precipitation for 2018 to 57.42". As a result, 2018 has surpassed 2004 when 57.41" precipitation was recorded to become Pittsburgh's wettest year on record. Earlier today, 2018 surpassed 2011 when 68.02" precipitation fell at Louisville, KY, to become that City's wettest year on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: At 4:35 pm, daily rainfall at Pittsburgh reached 0.34". That brings total precipitation for 2018 to 57.42". As a result, 2018 has surpassed 2004 when 57.41" precipitation was recorded to become Pittsburgh's wettest year on record. Earlier today, 2018 surpassed 2011 when 68.02" precipitation fell at Louisville, KY, to become that City's wettest year on record. Year of the rainstorm. Started back in January with heavy rain, and kept going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: At 4:35 pm, daily rainfall at Pittsburgh reached 0.34". That brings total precipitation for 2018 to 57.42". As a result, 2018 has surpassed 2004 when 57.41" precipitation was recorded to become Pittsburgh's wettest year on record. Earlier today, 2018 surpassed 2011 when 68.02" precipitation fell at Louisville, KY, to become that City's wettest year on record. We look poised to add to it through midnight too. Hopefully in the new year we can combine some QPF laden storms with cold air. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: We look poised to add to it through midnight too. Hopefully in the new year we can combine some QPF laden storms with cold air. Snow would be nice. Hopefully, things will evolve so that there will be a lot of snowfall in 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 As of 8:15 pm, Pittsburgh had picked up 0.69" rain. That further increases 2018's record annual precipitation to 57.77". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just wanted to share with you guys. Super cool data coming in from my new WeatherFlow system. Installed it this week and am pumped to use it this winter. Here is the rainfall from tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 000 SXUS71 KPBZ 010813 RERPIT RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 315 AM EDT TUE JAN 01 2019 ...WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD AT PITTSBURGH... PITTSBURGH RECEIVED 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY. THIS RAINFALL BRINGS THE TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR 2018 TO 57.83 INCHES, WHICH IS A NEW RECORD FOR ANNUAL PRECIPITATION. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 57.41 INCHES WAS SET IN 2004. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 8-14 Day temperature outlook doesn't look promising for below normal cold and it's getting into the time frame where we should get our best chance. GFS shows a cold plunge at the end of its run, but it's far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: At 4:35 pm, daily rainfall at Pittsburgh reached 0.34". That brings total precipitation for 2018 to 57.42". As a result, 2018 has surpassed 2004 when 57.41" precipitation was recorded to become Pittsburgh's wettest year on record. Earlier today, 2018 surpassed 2011 when 68.02" precipitation fell at Louisville, KY, to become that City's wettest year on record. My backyard has been mushy and wet most of the year. My CoCoRAHS observations total for 2018 was 58.37". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/1/2019 at 12:07 PM, TeaysValleyWV said: 8-14 Day temperature outlook doesn't look promising for below normal cold and it's getting into the time frame where we should get our best chance. GFS shows a cold plunge at the end of its run, but it's far out. Long range is looking pretty pathetic still at this point. When things looked hostile in mid Dec I wasn't thrilled, but figured we were due for a 2-3 week warmup and figured once we got through the Holiday's we would have a pretty good handle on seeing a better pattern emerge. Well here we are and it still looks bad, maybe some hints that things turn around but we have at least 10-14 more days of wasted January potential barring some fluke setup. If that is how it plays out it's going to take a fairly epic 2nd half of winter to salvage what many (myself included) thought was going to be a good season. I'll keep an open mind for now as it is only Jan 3rd, but seeing the good looks keep getting pushed out is a red flag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Yikes you know it's bad whenever JB who usually hypes up cold as much as possible is getting worried. Honestly one big blizzard would wipe away a horrible winter but right now its hard enough to get snowflakes in the air. It's just funny because everytime in the long range i does look promising. Then everytime we get closer it just gets progressively worse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 The long-range volatility all season is what has me concerned. Been that way for a while now. If the MJO loops back around into Phase 6 again after passing through 7 briefly, that's just a kick in the pants. Maybe it doesn't even make Phase 8. 96-97 analog probably a pretty good one to follow. Seems people expected a more influential Nino (which we haven't had), but the pacific, among other things, is keeping the cold air away from much of the CONUS. We aren't torching as there isn't much of a SE ridge, still above average. Feels like we're simmering. Going through all of December and January without snow would be pretty bad. February 2010 would have to re-appear to make up for it. March snow isn't as appealing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Agree with all the above comments..there was a lot of chatter in early/mid December from the "cold" folks, JB one of them, that the cold was coming around the end of the year. Well here we are and nothing appears to be on the horizon. What's not good is they have gone a little quiet. GFS keeps teasing us 2 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Yikes you know it's bad whenever JB who usually hypes up cold as much as possible is getting worried. Honestly one big blizzard would wipe away a horrible winter but right now its hard enough to get snowflakes in the air. It's just funny because everytime in the long range i does look promising. Then everytime we get closer it just gets progressively worse. Listened to JBs video this morning. eeeekkk. I’ve never heard him sound so defeated. Like a dog with his tail between his legs. Interesting at the very end he mentions all of the things that he expected to happen are happening but the weather just isn’t cooperating. Outside of JB, the CPC has a colder than average outlook in the 3-4 week range. Long term Euro looks like it turns average but nothing to indicate cold yet. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Possible light at the end of the tunnel for atleast maybe salvaging the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Looks like the MJO sees phase 8 and runs for cover. Wants to stay warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Euro just showed a monster storm for east long island and New England. This is looking good as far as the models finally catching on to a pattern change. I can imagine the gfs will start to catch on soon and we will start having atleast white storms to track. WAKE UP ITS COMING!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Looks like we may have some flakes in the air on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Euro just showed a monster storm for east long island and New England. This is looking good as far as the models finally catching on to a pattern change. I can imagine the gfs will start to catch on soon and we will start having atleast white storms to track. WAKE UP ITS COMING!!!!! Teleconnections looking better too. Still, a lot of warmth to work through, but I do think there is a change coming somewhere around mid-late January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 CMC keeps showing a weird inland runner. It's over a week out though. The signal is there for atleast a storm in that time period. We may finally have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 hours ago, Rd9108 said: CMC keeps showing a weird inland runner. It's over a week out though. The signal is there for atleast a storm in that time period. We may finally have something to track. Yeah, similar to Nov 1950 where warmer 850 mb temps get drawn overtop the colder 850 core. Hopefully it's still there next Fri/Sat. On TT in the Lower Dynamics section, the 850 temp adv & FGEN tab shows this nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now