MikeB_01 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 UKie. 2-4”. It’s what we do . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Bethel Park looks on the fringe of 4”.....better than a dusting?Models keep trending further away and weaker. That's why I said by the time it gets here, it'll probably be very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 131 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2019 PAZ021-023-029-031-073-075-WVZ004-012-021-509-030245- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0006.190303T1500Z-190304T0600Z/ Allegheny-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Marshall- Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of Pittsburgh Metro Area, Indiana, Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Uniontown, Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont, and Morgantown 131 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches expected. * WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh && $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 KPIT issuing WSW for a 4-6 event. 6 is the absolute max i can see from this fast mover. Everything to me is looking like a 2-4 though. Do you think someone at the NWS is drunk? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: KPIT issuing WSW for a 4-6 event. 6 is the absolute max i can see from this fast mover. Everything to me is looking like a 2-4 though. Do you think someone at the NWS is drunk? I thought it was an old notification that hadn’t been cleared from my phone. Then I saw it was real. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 That warning is bizarre given it requires 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours. I don't expect to hit either of those marks. A watch might have made sense, then downgraded to WWA when it became clear we weren't hitting warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Possibly PBZ is seeing that slight inverted trough feature on some of the guidance, and anticipating some WAA enhancement. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Possibly PBZ is seeing that slight inverted trough feature on some of the guidance, and anticipating some WAA enhancement. Just a thought. Yes and their discussion also mentions the saturated DGZ. If they are right and this storm produces 6", it will be a major learning event for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 NW shift so slightly.....let’s do it one more time.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Possibly PBZ is seeing that slight inverted trough feature on some of the guidance, and anticipating some WAA enhancement. Just a thought. I've seen this on the coast and they tend to be modeled somewhat by the meso models. I don't see a single model (mesos included) getting anywhere near 6" for Pittsburgh metro unless I'm missing something. The closest is the Euro with 4" (and it maybe paints a small strip of 6" in eastern Washington county). Warning (in this case) means 6" in 12 hours is imminent. I don't know that that's the wording I would use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Classic when CWA offices don't communicate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 42 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Possibly PBZ is seeing that slight inverted trough feature on some of the guidance, and anticipating some WAA enhancement. Just a thought. Agree...that feature many times over performs in this scenario Still bizzaire to go straight warning without a 6” average expected in the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 So they issue a WSW for this, but for the event where we got 4 inches in 4 hours last week, and it all came at the worst possible time they didn’t? They also didn’t issue the WWA Thursday night till it started snowing. Aybe theu know something we don’t? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stjbeautifulday Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I think they are trying to cover their butts after all these bad calls. It’s coming during the day and people will be out and about. Weather.com says 1-3 inches for Moon still. I’m so confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I think they are trying to cover their butts after all these bad calls. It’s coming during the day and people will be out and about. Weather.com says 1-3 inches for Moon still. I’m so confused. Pretty sure weather.com just goes straight GFS data. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 Any update on the Euro fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, stjbeautifulday said: I think they are trying to cover their butts after all these bad calls. It’s coming during the day and people will be out and about. Weather.com says 1-3 inches for Moon still. I’m so confused. I don’t think they have made a lot of bad calls this year. The Jan slop storm was almost impossible to make a good call. Would have had to go against all other forecasts. These last couple smaller storms just happened to verify on the high end (which is great for us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The long range HRRR gives us like 1-2 inches. I have no clue what PIT is looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Burghblizz said: I don’t think they have made a lot of bad calls this year. The Jan slop storm was almost impossible to make a good call. Would have had to go against all other forecasts. These last couple smaller storms just happened to verify on the high end (which is great for us) The January storm...every model the night before but the euro showed us getting close to nothing. Even that morning as it was raining we were still under a WSW for 5-8 inches. We all saw that coming a couple days out. The quick hit we got Thursday night, the day before we had a 30% chance of snow. Thursday morning they showed less than an inch.We didn’t get a WWA until it started to snow. They also busted pretty low on last weeks quick hit...I think they were 1-3 then had to up to 3-6 as the stprm progressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, KPITSnow said: The January storm...every model the night before but the euro showed us getting close to nothing. Even that morning as it was raining we were still under a WSW for 5-8 inches. We all saw that coming a couple days out. The quick hit we got Thursday night, the day before we had a 30% chance of snow. Thursday morning they showed less than an inch.We didn’t get a WWA until it started to snow. They also busted pretty low on last weeks quick hit...I think they were 1-3 then had to up to 3-6 as the stprm progressed. Maybe....but splitting hairs. Point I was trying to make before is that I don’t think they are going intentionally bullish to make up for bad calls. If anything, forecasts usually get slightly more conservative as a PR move. i agree with you that they are definitely thinking it outperforms guidance at this point. But it’s what they think will happen. I’d probably go with 2-4” City and points NW, and 3-5” southern and eastern suburbs. 4-6” the border counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 NAM is UGLY. It only snows for 6 hours. We might get 1-3 inches. Yikes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 26 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: NAM is UGLY. It only snows for 6 hours. We might get 1-3 inches. Yikes. Not terribly awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Not terribly awfulLooks pretty much like my forecast from last night. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Pittsburgh NWS twitter explains their reasoning behind the warning: Quote Some locations have been included in a winter storm warning instead of an advisory due to metro area/interstate impacts. (https://twitter.com/NWSPittsburgh/status/1101932802080157696) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 So quiet in here.....no one following better recent trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: So quiet in here.....no one following better recent trends? Nothing earth shatteringly different. I think your area is best positioned in this area to push the 6” mark. A lot of the rest of the area still needs a push north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: So quiet in here.....no one following better recent trends? It is really tough for me to get excited about a 2-3 inch storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Nothing earth shatteringly different. I think your area is best positioned in this area to push the 6” mark. A lot of the rest of the area still needs a push north. Latest trend went north tho....I’m hoping we can all get at least 3-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Latest trend went north tho....I’m hoping we can all get at least 3-4” Which model? Everything I’m seeing shows maybe 3 inches max, maybe 4 in souther AGC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now