ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 18zNam is with the Euro....I could go for a NAM”ing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 hour ago, southpark said: I also think the earlier runs of the EURO from the past few days had last night's storm in the totals so we are now deducting those out since the event has passed. Yeah I think you're right. Mistake on my part, thinking those maps only showed a single event synopsis. Storm is definitely less amped, though. Truthfully, this was never going to be a "big one" because of the progressive flow. If there weren't so many waves scrambling close together, I do think this weekend could have been a major event (maybe not for us - depends on other factors - but for someone). 13 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Weaker, faster or all of the above would do. I think we should be out of the woods on a to far NW track at this point. NWS call for 4-6 if verified would be "acceptable". We should never punt any event that could give 5+ in this area. Personally I'd like to see WSW with 5-8, which is doable, but with the speed and it being an open wave we can only expect so much. Watching the surface panels is excruciating.. I keep waiting for it to turn the corner but just keeps sliding ENE. I do agree, beggars can't be choosers and all, but we've still managed a fair amount of snow this year. For me, the little to modest events have simply lost their appeal. Is 2010 still the last double-digit snowfall for Pittsburgh metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, jwilson said: Yeah I think you're right. Mistake on my part, thinking those maps only showed a single event synopsis. Storm is definitely less amped, though. Truthfully, this was never going to be a "big one" because of the progressive flow. If there weren't so many waves scrambling close together, I do think this weekend could have been a major event (maybe not for us - depends on other factors - but for someone). I do agree, beggars can't be choosers and all, but we've still managed a fair amount of snow this year. For me, the little to modest events have simply lost their appeal. Is 2010 still the last double-digit snowfall for Pittsburgh metro? Technically March 21 2018 was double digit. But the snowpack was already starting to melt before the last flakes had even fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 hour ago, jwilson said: Yeah I think you're right. Mistake on my part, thinking those maps only showed a single event synopsis. Storm is definitely less amped, though. Truthfully, this was never going to be a "big one" because of the progressive flow. If there weren't so many waves scrambling close together, I do think this weekend could have been a major event (maybe not for us - depends on other factors - but for someone). I do agree, beggars can't be choosers and all, but we've still managed a fair amount of snow this year. For me, the little to modest events have simply lost their appeal. Is 2010 still the last double-digit snowfall for Pittsburgh metro? This is true, technically per official climate data we are only 0.3 below normal for snowfall for the date. If we manage another 4-6 this weekend we will be within a stone's through of normal despite the overall lousy feel this season has had. Nickel and Dime is how we roll. I am with you, everyday further into March the bigger the snowfall needs to be to get my attention. That said if we get a brief period of heavy snow that only amounts to one inch but falls in a 30 minute period I'll enjoy it nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Saw the 18z Euro went SE again.. Not a good sign. 18z has been a good indicator for 00z for most storms I've paid attention to this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Saw the 18z Euro went SE again.. Not a good sign. 18z has been a good indicator for 00z for most storms I've paid attention to this season. Need to stop any further movement tonight, if we’re to salvage anything decent from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Need to stop any further movement tonight, if we’re to salvage anything decent from this storm. NAM might be about 2-4 inches. Would just rather get nothing at this point honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Let’s hope we get nam’d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Let’s hope we get nam’d Looks great for you! Not so much up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18z Euro snow map, shaved another 1-2 inches off the northern edge.. Then we have 00z Nam.. Another I70 crush job while the city fringes. If this is the outcome it had to be the 5th or 6th similar setup at least in the last couple seasons. Maddening track for the city and folks North of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: 9 times out of 10 these things keep adjusting North the last 24-36 hours, since we need it this time though you can count on it NOT happening lol Where was this adjustment for the January storm. Unbelievable this Saturday storm just appears out of know where to screw us. Oh well, at least the Pens blew another lead in the last 3 minutes and lost in overtime again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Trying to do a little analysis as we go here... Over the last several runs with the NAM, the ULL is shifting just slightly south and east. Undoubtedly the reason for the snow totals going that way as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 1-3.....2-4 we know the story. It always ends the same for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Isn’t amazing, after years of watching the GFS giving us 100 inches of snow and being wrong while the euro locks in on the correct solution, that this year the GFS has been dead on here and the euro has shown multiple big hits but been completely wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 First call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Still looks like possible 4-5 “....I guess we could take that but from 2 days ago it kind of sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Another step back on 6z Euro. If my yard gets cut anymore I may bleed to death lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Another step back on 6z Euro. If my yard gets cut anymore I may bleed to death lol.By the time this "storm" actually gets here, it'll end up being a coating to an inch. Lol No thanks. I'd rather see spring at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: 10 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Another step back on 6z Euro. If my yard gets cut anymore I may bleed to death lol. By the time this "storm" actually gets here, it'll end up being a coating to an inch. Lol No thanks. I'd rather see spring at this point. Bethel Park looks on the fringe of 4”.....better than a dusting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 NAM is pretty meh for everyone in PA. 2-4, 3-5 out further east. GFS looks like the winner on this one. The Euro was totally out to lunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 NAM is pretty meh for everyone in PA. 2-4, 3-5 out further east. GFS looks like the winner on this one. The Euro was totally out to lunch.Can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Euro being out to lunch is the new norm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: Can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Euro being out to lunch is the new norm . Only when it shows a good storm for us, next time when it's the other way around it will nail it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Bethel Park looks on the fringe of 4”.....better than a dusting? Depends what you want from a storm this time of year. My yard is probably in the 2-3 range on the 6z Euro but 12z GFS is like 1. I'd also be skeptical of light snow doing much accumulating in mid afternoon this time of year with the type of cold we will have around. Maybe the short range models will look better but for now this doesn't instill much hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 I don’t want to be the first to say it but here it goes. I am looking forward to some warm air, sun and thunderstorms. It won’t be long until we are back here in 8 months again to take our annual medicine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I’ll be in Greensburg tommorow, so still thinking a fair chance to squeeze out 4-5” there. South and eastern suburbs figure to do better than city and points NW Need that little tick stronger and north that usually effs us when we don’t need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Hoping for that NW shift today once that energy from last night it fully off the grid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Euro being out to lunch is the new norm. 56 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Only when it shows a good storm for us, next time when it's the other way around it will nail it. Lol This has been one of the worst winters for modeling, I believe, at least in the long-term. It probably isn't as bad as I think, but I would like to see verification scores relative to other years. Constant short-term adjustments, disagreements, etc. I do agree the Euro has not been strong in a year when verification scores say the GFS has been abysmal. Twice now it has caved to the GFS, though. Seems the models couldn't handle the pattern overall of this winter. I'm sure this will make for an interesting case study for those in the field. It was so bad the FV3 has been put back to sleep. The Sunday storm is losing much of its impact over the entire northeast. Given how the January system went, it wouldn't surprise me if the Sunday storm went even further southeast or drier than is being modeled. Well, I guess we learn to not get suckered in when there are all these little balls of energy trying to vie for the limited amount in the atmosphere. The paradigm of "choosing the model that looks worse for us" certainly hasn't been shifted by this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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