RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 35 minutes ago, Mailman said: That's a pretty nice look, even some wiggle room without the drastic cutoffs 20 miles one way or another. It's been a long time since a storm has really targeted the SWPA corner as a whole like that. Hopefully we don't see any big swings or incremental degradation. Should become pretty clear once tomorrows event is out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Little more wiggle room than has been typical this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, Burghblizz said: Little more wiggle room than has been typical this winter... I need a wiggle south about 25 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 18Z NAM looking a little juicier for this first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: 18Z NAM looking a little juicier for this first wave Yeah maybe 2-4 with isolated 5 inch reports could be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 NWS still going with 1 inch. Either they will update their forecast with 2-3 expected or they will live or die with their amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I'm going to try to start producing snow maps to help keep track of my thinking before a system. Here is tonight. I think I took a middle ground between NWS and HRRR. Let me know what you guys think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: I'm going to try to start producing snow maps to help keep track of my thinking before a system. Here is tonight. I think I took a middle ground between NWS and HRRR. Let me know what you guys think. I am fairly perplexed by the NWS forecast for overnight. I’d say 1-3 inches across AGC north to south, and 2-4 with possibly 5 down to the WV border. There should absolutely be advisories points south of AGC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 HRRR is showing 5 inches just south of AGH. That's pretty impressive for how fast the precip is rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 HRRR is showing 5 inches just south of AGH. That's pretty impressive for how fast the precip is rolling through. Something to watch. With the snow starting by 11 and out of here by 4, that would be really impressive to get 5 out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 that might be part of NWS apprehension....small window to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 32 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: that might be part of NWS apprehension....small window to get it done. NWS pitt just changed to 1-3 inches for most of allegheny county. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 JV being JV for tonight. He is however at least admitting that accumulating snow is possible Sunday. His board earlier today said “snow shower” (singular) Sunday. https://mobile.twitter.com/Verz/status/1101209662463070209?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 We got NAM'd with the 18Z suite for tonight. Started showing 6" lollipops in Washington and Southern Allegheny county, including the high-res (it is closer to 4" with Ferrier corrections). The half-foot is probably too wet, but there might be a couple places that snag 4" or just over. Some of the soundings are showing really strong Omega in the DGZ and that's how it can happen. As for the weekend, the NAM is not impressive. Much less organized than other models. The other change at 18Z I noticed was the GFS wanting to crank that first low once it gets in the Atlantic on Saturday. That could rob some energy from the Sunday system and/or push it south. Not a favorable change, in my estimations. 0Z runs tonight will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 43 minutes ago, north pgh said: NWS pitt just changed to 1-3 inches for most of allegheny county. Good call. Yeah I agree with that, 1-3, maybe someone snags 4. This is about the ceiling for this event I'd say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Very first few flakes fallin barely.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Hi rez NAM still whacks the metro with almost 5 inches of snow. I dont see that happening but I wouldn't be surprised to see some 3-4 inch amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 45 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Hi rez NAM still whacks the metro with almost 5 inches of snow. I dont see that happening but I wouldn't be surprised to see some 3-4 inch amounts. HRRR also shows a narrow band of 4in totals. These storms that just keep improving until game time are usually the ones that are more likely to over perform. Maybe we get lucky and pull off back to back moderate snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The early stuff on radar isn’t making it to the grounds. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The early stuff on radar isn’t making it to the grounds. .lots of dry air to fight first. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 lots of dry air to fight first. .And just as I say this, it fought through the dry air. I have some light snow falling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 And just as I say this, it fought through the dry air. I have some light snow falling now.Coming down pretty good now actually. I bet we can squeeze 2 or 3 inches out of this one in our area tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 This escalated pretty quickly. Seeing moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 It is ripping right now. Snow plus with probably a quarter mile or less visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 GFS with a pretty significant jump south for Sunday. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 GFS for sunday... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 And just like that the screw trend has began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1055 PM EST Thu Feb 28 2019 PAZ021-073-011200- /O.EXA.KPBZ.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190301T1400Z/ Allegheny-Westmoreland- Including the cities of Pittsburgh Metro Area, Murrysville, Greensburg, and New Kensington 1055 PM EST Thu Feb 28 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to three inches. * WHERE...Allegheny and Westmoreland Counties. * WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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