✨Pittsburgh PA ❄ Winter 2018-2019

[north pgh]

Hey it's snowing.....

Not a lot but Flurries will do.

[MikeB_01]

1 hour ago, PghPirates27 said:

looks like 40's/mid 30's next 10 days (other than thanksgiving cold). The long range i'm looking at has 40's/50's and higher lows throughout december...

Not sure I would buy that model. Especially if it is the CFS ---> been performing terribly.  Long range Euro is showing a much cooler pattern. The MJO also favoring colder phases. I don't think we are looking super frigid just yet, but I think there is a decent signal for some near or below average temps into december

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

Even normal temps for December help to lighten the Christmas spirit-I’m fine with some flakes in the air-vs a few years ago when I was outside in shorts by a campfire on Christmas Eve! Winter hasn’t officially arrived but it sure will feel like it on Thanksgiving! 

[jwilson]

Here's a shot from the snow the other day:

 

Everything had a nice coat on it.  Really set the mood for the season.  Made me wish we got snow more often in November and around Christmas.

[MikeB_01]

very thin band of snow along our cold front to make its way through the region later this afternoon... Cold air comes in after. Temps probably drop into the teens tonight. 

[Mailman]

Guess we'll see some white stuff in the air over the next couple of days.  Not expected to amount to much, unfortunately.  

[north pgh]

I have a good 1/2 inch on the grassy areas now.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Looks like a band has setup across northern Allegheny county, anyone have any reports? Don't expect it's much but maybe someone end up with 2in

[north pgh]

3 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Looks like a band has setup across northern Allegheny county, anyone have any reports? Don't expect it's much but maybe someone end up with 2in

I have a solid inch or inch and a half on the ground.   

[jwilson]

I made the mistake of looking at some long-term forecasts.  Does not look great right now.

I'm hoping - as it tends to do with the cold snaps - that the ensembles' warmth is overdone.  GFS and Euro both.  That dreaded warm December I fear appears like it may be a reality, fueled by a raging +EPO.  Maybe it's a transient shift instead of a long-term pattern setting up, but we've seen single, strong indices dictate winter before.

If you want to get really crazy, there's a storm signal around Christmas that might be interesting.  Yes, that is what I choose to believe.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Well if I could order up a duplicate of yesterday and today's weather for Christmas Eve \ Christmas day I would do so in a heart beat. Cold, overcast, ground whitened, with perpetual light snow and flurries, but not enough to inhibit traveling over the river and through the woods.

It's been awhile it seems since we had a real cold stretch in November, I forgot the staying power of snow if you get cold temperatures this time of year.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

13 hours ago, jwilson said:

I made the mistake of looking at some long-term forecasts.  Does not look great right now.

I'm hoping - as it tends to do with the cold snaps - that the ensembles' warmth is overdone.  GFS and Euro both.  That dreaded warm December I fear appears like it may be a reality, fueled by a raging +EPO.  Maybe it's a transient shift instead of a long-term pattern setting up, but we've seen single, strong indices dictate winter before.

If you want to get really crazy, there's a storm signal around Christmas that might be interesting.  Yes, that is what I choose to believe.

Aside from Saturday and Sunday I think until at least the middle part of the month we will average near to below average for temperatures with a couple shots at something to track. After that tropical forcing looks to support some interlude of AK trough pumping the conus with PAC modified air, there are a few things that could happen to mute this but it could also translate to a torch period. I'd lean towards this being a transient feature though at this point.

The weeklies seem to just perpetuate / roll forward whatever pattern that was advertised at day 14 from the Euro run they are based off of, if you are in a stable pattern this works out well, but if the pattern evolves a few days later they often miss the change. Even if we manage to waste the last 2 weeks of Dec (I'd hate to have 50s and rain around the Holidays) Nino winters are back loaded and I would expect better chances for Winter weather in Jan and Feb. Although saying you expect winter weather in January is like saying you expect it to get light out after sunrise, not really a stretch lol.

[Mailman]

FV3 came in hot for next weekend.  We're only 9 days out, of course.

[jwilson]

1 hour ago, Mailman said:

FV3 came in hot for next weekend.  We're only 9 days out, of course.

Right in the sweet spot, then! (Kidding, of course)

Beautiful banana high, juicy southern steam.

Signal remains.  Euro and GFS not quite on board yet, suppressed solutions, but if there's such a thing as weather porn, that FV3 run is it.  I'm sure we'll see plenty of spread upcoming.

 

On 11/28/2018 at 9:12 AM, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Aside from Saturday and Sunday I think until at least the middle part of the month we will average near to below average for temperatures with a couple shots at something to track. After that tropical forcing looks to support some interlude of AK trough pumping the conus with PAC modified air, there are a few things that could happen to mute this but it could also translate to a torch period. I'd lean towards this being a transient feature though at this point.

The weeklies seem to just perpetuate / roll forward whatever pattern that was advertised at day 14 from the Euro run they are based off of, if you are in a stable pattern this works out well, but if the pattern evolves a few days later they often miss the change. Even if we manage to waste the last 2 weeks of Dec (I'd hate to have 50s and rain around the Holidays) Nino winters are back loaded and I would expect better chances for Winter weather in Jan and Feb. Although saying you expect winter weather in January is like saying you expect it to get light out after sunrise, not really a stretch lol.

Indeed, even a couple days later, the PV flow looks improved, pinching off instead of getting trapped over AK.  It may not dump cold over us, and I'm sure there will some sort of warmth and relaxation of the pattern, but for now it appears we may not get locked into anything over a longer term.  Lots of moving pieces to keep the weather shuffling.  I was worried we'd be starting at 70 on Christmas, which I guess is never out of the question.  At least through the 10th or so we should have a ride of some kind.

[meatwad]

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
617 PM EST Thu Nov 29 2018

OHZ039>041-049-050-058-059-PAZ013-014-020>023-029-031-073>076-
WVZ001>004-300300-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0027.181129T2317Z-181130T0300Z/
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson-Guernsey-Belmont-
Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-
Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-Fayette Ridges-
Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-
Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton,
Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Cadiz, Steubenville,
Cambridge, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville, New Castle,
Ellwood City, Butler, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca,
Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City, Indiana,
Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg,
New Kensington, Ligonier, Donegal, Uniontown, Champion, Ohiopyle,
Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling, and Moundsville
617 PM EST Thu Nov 29 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Ice accumulations of a light glaze are
  expected. Some light snow may also mix in with the freezing
  rain.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest, west central and western
  Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and northern
  panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in very slippery
  conditions on sidewalks, roads and bridges, including during
  the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving. Please report snow or ice by
calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook
page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh

&&

 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Got a solid glaze on sidewalk and deck. Dog packed the snow down on the deck so with the glaze it’s a death trap lol Glad I don’t have to go out tonight.

[MikeB_01]

Thunderstorms in December. I forget how much I love thunderstorms


.

[Rd9108]

Yay another storm to track!!!! It has heartbreak written all over it. 

[jwilson]

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Yay another storm to track!!!! It has heartbreak written all over it. 

A blizzard for Atlanta in early December.  Could you imagine that?

[jwilson]

I know it's still relatively early, but the models have largely been consistent with a southern solution for a few days now.  Looks like the battle line is getting drawn across the Mason-Dixon in terms of northern progression of the snow.  I find it incredibly strange to get such strong confluence this early in December, but at least for right now, that's what we're looking at.

Going back in time, Richmond's biggest December snowfall is 17.2", and that occurred in 1908.  They've had four other events over ten inches (1917, 1935, 1958, and 1966).  The storms in 1908, 1935, and 1966 were late December.  The 10.4" in 1917 fell between the 12th and 14th.  A storm approaching and exceeding 2' of snow between December 8th-10th would essentially be unprecedented.  However, given the passage of time, perhaps they are due.

Now, a north trend or wobble is somewhat predictable, even expected, with the models, especially later in the game.  As we move forward this week, the question will be whether we can get enough northward movement prior to the onset to sneak into the crosshairs.  Places like D.C. might be in better position to benefit.  I am worried we're too far north to be in the game.

The GEFS (ensembles) haven't shifted noticeably north over the last few days.  They've kept the heaviest axis of snow in Eastern WVA/Western VA.  The Euro ensembles appear to be in similar agreement.  Looking at individual members, none of them get Pittsburgh appreciably in the game.  There are a couple close calls, but the best ones are all fringe jobs, at most.

There is still time for change.  I am concerned, though, because outside of that early FV3 run, there haven't been any northern solutions (maybe the CMC is an exception; I'm ignoring it until it has support).  They went further south for a time, but again, no intimation that the confluence will weaken enough to target PA.  There are quite a few interactions at play.  Keep a look out, but for now, I wouldn't really expect anything (big surprise, right?).

[Rd9108]

 

Oooooo Canada

[RitualOfTheTrout]

This is more like it... Really uncanny how many storms have actually verified to something similar to this. Wouldn't take much to get more meaningful qpf into our area.

[jwilson]

55 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

This is more like it... Really uncanny how many storms have actually verified to something similar to this. Wouldn't take much to get more meaningful qpf into our area.

Yeah, unfortunately, the FV3 (and to a lesser extent the GFS) is the only thing we have on our side right now.  It has been fairly consistent while also shifting north noticeably over the last few runs.  At least enough to get Allegheny County into the mix (certainly not directly, but snow instead of dry).  Meanwhile, the Euro and Ukie are squash city with the high sitting over State College.

[Rd9108]

I'm tracking this one of course but I just find it hard to believe we see suppression too this extent in December. At this point I'd rather NC get hammered if we get another fringe job. Still plenty of time in model land for big changes. This is definitely not over yet. 

[jwilson]

7 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

I'm tracking this one of course but I just find it hard to believe we see suppression too this extent in December. At this point I'd rather NC get hammered if we get another fringe job. Still plenty of time in model land for big changes. This is definitely not over yet. 

I should probably stop watching this so often - though I love the chase and all - but the one good thing we had on our side just went way south (18Z FV3).  There's a piece over the midwest which is acting as kicker along with a diving shortwave in the Ontario/NE area that acts as a suppressant.  If that New England s/w can move faster (out of the way) or the piece in the midwest phases with the energy over the south and pulls it back, as I would understand it, those are the two ways we can get an event more north.

The latter option could result in a rather large system, perhaps historical proportions, while the former is something still decent but less notable.  Of course, it remains to be seen how far north and west we can get with the primary system.

[MikeB_01]

21 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

I'm tracking this one of course but I just find it hard to believe we see suppression too this extent in December. At this point I'd rather NC get hammered if we get another fringe job. Still plenty of time in model land for big changes. This is definitely not over yet. 

I'm with you on this one. Really hard to see this kind of suppression holding on. I think there is a few hundred-mile jog to the north in store for us. 

[MikeB_01]

In the mean time, really beautiful out today. Nice sized flakes falling all morning

[blackngoldrules]

I'm with you on this one. Really hard to see this kind of suppression holding on. I think there is a few hundred-mile jog to the north in store for us. 

I'd love for that to happen but just don't see it this close to the event. This will be another miss for us most likely. Nothing we're not used to around here. Virginia and North Carolina are probably going to get nailed. I think they've seen more big storms than we have in recent years.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[MikeB_01]

27 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said:

I'd love for that to happen but just don't see it this close to the event. This will be another miss for us most likely. Nothing we're not used to around here. Virginia and North Carolina are probably going to get nailed. I think they've seen more big storms than we have in recent years.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

MAybe a few hundred miles is a little overdone. Maybe I should just say that I think there is room for it to come north. EPS percentage chance of 3 in eeks up a few ticks every run. 

[Rd9108]

I believe this one is over for us. Hopefully we get some good chances down the road.