✨Pittsburgh PA ❄ Winter 2018-2019

[blackngoldrules]

I'm looking for the Euro to go further south tonight.

It ticked back north a bit with the 18z so I doubt it. I've seen stranger things happen though.

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[KPITSnow]

That gfs run might be one of the most brutal runs I’ve seen. Entire state almost gets warning level snow except the sw corner.

[Rd9108]

12 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

That gfs run might be one of the most brutal runs I’ve seen. Entire state almost gets warning level snow except the sw corner.

Its who we are. We just suck for good snows. Although some 5-8 hit would be nice from time to time. I tried to act positive even when the euro came south but this has a screw job written all over it. YOU WIN AGAIN WTOD! Rant over. I havent been around for the 0z models but from a quick glance most look bad. 

[dj3]

15 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Its who we are. We just suck for good snows. Although some 5-8 hit would be nice from time to time. I tried to act positive even when the euro came south but this has a screw job written all over it. YOU WIN AGAIN WTOD! Rant over. I havent been around for the 0z models but from a quick glance most look bad. 

Wouldn’t give up yet. Nothing has really changed the gfs has always sucked 

[Rd9108]

3 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Wouldn’t give up yet. Nothing has really changed the gfs has always sucked 

Wait the NAM isnt that bad either huh. 

[MikeB_01]

19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Its who we are. We just suck for good snows. Although some 5-8 hit would be nice from time to time. I tried to act positive even when the euro came south but this has a screw job written all over it. YOU WIN AGAIN WTOD! Rant over. I havent been around for the 0z models but from a quick glance most look bad. 

1 minute ago, dj3 said:

Wouldn’t give up yet. Nothing has really changed the gfs has always sucked 

From what I am hearing, the UKie is good and the thing we keep forgetting is that the Euro, KING EURO, is for once on our side. I won't give up until tomorrow night. If the 00z Euro is the end of a bad night, then we can call it.

 

 

[CoraopolisWx]

FWIW the 00Z Canadian has the 850 low a bit further south, and closes off a contour at 12Z to give us some decent snow Sun morning

[MikeB_01]

How do we get from one frame to the other??? What happen in between these two frames is huge

[KPITSnow]

1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

How do we get from one frame to the other??? What happen in between these two frames is huge

That’s a pretty good look though. 

[MikeB_01]

It ticked back north a bit with the 18z so I doubt it. I've seen stranger things happen though.

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The precip came north a little, but the L went SE.

Looking at this and using the 6z/18z as an indicator, I expect the Euro to hold strong tonight. No big changes. Tomorrow the storm gets sampled and we start to see what this beast will actually do.


.

[north pgh]

[Mailman]

0z Euro has all snow in Allegheny County (just barely lol). Not as fortunate down here.

[KPITSnow]

3 minutes ago, Mailman said:

0z Euro has all snow in Allegheny County (just barely lol). Not as fortunate down here.

It is infuriating to look at a Low position in central WV, yet it still trying to flip to rain/slop here.

 

It seems like it should be an almost ideal track for us, but it seems like we have to keep the low 200 miles from us or we changeover.

[Mailman]

[BigBen89]

Yes, not looking good for us south of the Burgh. We always seem to get screwed with the WAA. We need this thing to go another 75 miles SOUTH.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

5 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

It is infuriating to look at a Low position in central WV, yet it still trying to flip to rain/slop here.

 

It seems like it should be an almost ideal track for us, but it seems like we have to keep the low 200 miles from us or we changeover.

I think part of the problem is the area of low pressure is an elongated mess, this helps in one way by keeping it from over amplifying and pumping the ridge in the east which would let it cut way west, but hurts because we basically have a circulation stretching from Alabama to West Virginia. For all intents an purposes, we may as well have a weak but consolidated area of low pressure in WV and it would do the same thing. Both the Euro and GFS do this, but the Euro seems to be slightly more consolidated and further South with the lowest pressures, so rather than a a screaming flow out of the South at 850 like the GFS has, Euro is much less so we stay frozen longer. The other thing that hurts is we don't have a strong high in a really good location to help funnel in cold dry air to offset the warming. There is one, but its sliding east as the storm approaches.

 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

5 hours ago, Mailman said:

UKMET looks pretty similar:

[BigO60]

When do they start issuing watches/warnings?

[RitualOfTheTrout]

7 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

Feb ‘07 had a storm that was like 7” and a pile of sleet. It was a pain, but not horrible in terms of witnessing a decent “event”.

Obviously though, there were thoughts of what could have been. If I recall correctly, it was well forecasted so not like forecasted totals got ripped in half. 

VD 2007, I remember that storm well, we had a solid front end thump then a lot of sleet, ZR overnight then back to moderate snow the next day. We had a beast of a high locked in a good spot too. I wasn't living in NK at the time, but further NE in Apollo area so maybe that skewed my experience, but I recall even Greensburg was in bad shape.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

4 minutes ago, BigO60 said:

When do they start issuing watches/warnings?

Maybe this afternoon after 12z runs are digested? I would expect some form of watch issued today.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Pretty good analysis from NWS discussion too:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Precipitation will continue into the overnight hours, with most
of it ending before dawn on Friday.

Colder air behind this front will not arrive until Friday
afternoon and this cold air advection will find the trip
southward rather difficult as the flow aloft remains zonal.
Could see a few lingering snow showers over the north and
ridges, with the colder air and west-northwest flow.

Saturday is where the focus will be, as a major winter storm
will develop over the over the south-central US and move
rapidly northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic. Model are still
struggling with a consensus on the track of the storm and where
the rain/ice/snow line will setup. Operational models have come
into better agreement with a faster track, which means snow
starting a bit earlier on Saturday.

The whole key to impact will be where the transition line
develops. With an amazingly tight cloud level temperature
gradient, 20 to 40 miles will mean the difference between minor
accumulations to warning level accumulations. Models are also
surprisingly similar on snow amounts, but the placement of the
snow/ice/rain line remains elusive. Will continue with the idea
of using a blend of models to determine where that line will
setup.

The main driving factor in the path of the low will be the
evolution of the upper level trough developing the system. How
far south the trough digs Saturday, and the resulting height
rises to the east of the trough axis, will be key to
determining not only the low track, but also placement of the
cold and warm airmasses. One thing that models are not showing
on Saturday is a phasing between the southern and northern
stream energies. The phasing was also very important on how far
north the surface low could proceed, as it would deepen the
trough and provide more of a strong southerly flow in the upper
levels. This lack of phasing is leading me to believe that the
low may track a bit further south then say the GFS, which in
turn would push the rain/ice/snow line further south. This
additional atmospheric wrinkle only increases the need for a
model blend this far out.

Its not an exaggeration to state that a difference of 40 or 50
miles will be the difference between 1 to 2 inches of snow and 8
to 12 inches of snow.

Depending on how far north the warm air aloft pushes, we could
have a big problem with ice as well.

[BigBen89]

1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Pretty good analysis from NWS discussion too:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Precipitation will continue into the overnight hours, with most
of it ending before dawn on Friday.

Colder air behind this front will not arrive until Friday
afternoon and this cold air advection will find the trip
southward rather difficult as the flow aloft remains zonal.
Could see a few lingering snow showers over the north and
ridges, with the colder air and west-northwest flow.

Saturday is where the focus will be, as a major winter storm
will develop over the over the south-central US and move
rapidly northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic. Model are still
struggling with a consensus on the track of the storm and where
the rain/ice/snow line will setup. Operational models have come
into better agreement with a faster track, which means snow
starting a bit earlier on Saturday.

The whole key to impact will be where the transition line
develops. With an amazingly tight cloud level temperature
gradient, 20 to 40 miles will mean the difference between minor
accumulations to warning level accumulations. Models are also
surprisingly similar on snow amounts, but the placement of the
snow/ice/rain line remains elusive. Will continue with the idea
of using a blend of models to determine where that line will
setup.

The main driving factor in the path of the low will be the
evolution of the upper level trough developing the system. How
far south the trough digs Saturday, and the resulting height
rises to the east of the trough axis, will be key to
determining not only the low track, but also placement of the
cold and warm airmasses. One thing that models are not showing
on Saturday is a phasing between the southern and northern
stream energies. The phasing was also very important on how far
north the surface low could proceed, as it would deepen the
trough and provide more of a strong southerly flow in the upper
levels. This lack of phasing is leading me to believe that the
low may track a bit further south then say the GFS, which in
turn would push the rain/ice/snow line further south. This
additional atmospheric wrinkle only increases the need for a
model blend this far out.

Its not an exaggeration to state that a difference of 40 or 50
miles will be the difference between 1 to 2 inches of snow and 8
to 12 inches of snow.

Depending on how far north the warm air aloft pushes, we could
have a big problem with ice as well.

Lets hope the line sets up along the Mason/Dixon line, or south...

[Scott Philips]

Consensus overnight was most models stayed pat or creeped south. The foot of snow storm is coming. I think the city gets a foot and it climbs an inch for every 15 miles you get north and west of the city.

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[jwilson]

Well, the good news is the Euro and Ukie both stayed south and worked a transfer to the coast (again).  The Euro gives us almost zero breathing room.  I would think, with the tight gradient that close, those of us south of the city probably get some mixing.  If not rain, then sleet.  The Ukie looked a lot like the 12Z Euro from yesterday and is much more comfortable.

The bad news is the NA models are adamant about a stronger phase and cutting the low up into Pennsylvania.  The GFS is consistent, at least, and only gave us something notable back on Sunday.  Since then, it loves the interior New England special.  The NAM is a bit closer to workable, but still brings up too much WAA.

The ICON has moved south, though the evolution is a tad odd, with multiple lows on the boundary.  Despite the move, it again begins phasing too soon and pushes a southerly flow north.

I can't think of any examples off the top of my head, but I'd be curious if anyone has recollection of a storm where the propagation of the warm tongue stopped between Morgantown and Pittsburgh.  Perhaps say as far north as Washington.

[CranberryWX]

8 minutes ago, jwilson said:

 

I can't think of any examples off the top of my head, but I'd be curious if anyone has recollection of a storm where the propagation of the warm tongue stopped between Morgantown and Pittsburgh.  Perhaps say as far north as Washington.

I can remember several times in the 70's having school cancelled and going out in the morning to shovel 8" of snow with rain falling.  This was in central Armstrong county.  A couple of back-to-back 12" plus storms the same week in January 1978 were all snow where I was and the north hills area.  That would be something to look at to see how far south the snow line was and how those storms developed.

[lwg8tr0514]

Boy this thread is quiet, if all the models sh*t the bed I am sure there would be lots of folks here bellyaching.  We have a 8+" storm on the way and nada here.  Come on folks, take yes for an answer and let's talk about what's coming.  I like where we are at not in the bullseye... 72 hours out. Models seem to be coalescing on a solution where most of our precip is of the frozen variety.  I think Washington County north gets over a foot.

[BigBen89]

9 minutes ago, lwg8tr0514 said:

Boy this thread is quiet, if all the models sh*t the bed I am sure there would be lots of folks here bellyaching.  We have a 8+" storm on the way and nada here.  Come on folks, take yes for an answer and let's talk about what's coming.  I like where we are at not in the bullseye... 72 hours out. Models seem to be coalescing on a solution where most of our precip is of the frozen variety.  I think Washington County north gets over a foot.

On pins and needles just along the PA Pike in West Mo Co, so not so positive my friend.

[dj3]

11 minutes ago, lwg8tr0514 said:

Boy this thread is quiet, if all the models sh*t the bed I am sure there would be lots of folks here bellyaching.  We have a 8+" storm on the way and nada here.  Come on folks, take yes for an answer and let's talk about what's coming.  I like where we are at not in the bullseye... 72 hours out. Models seem to be coalescing on a solution where most of our precip is of the frozen variety.  I think Washington County north gets over a foot.

Cut off is a little close for comfort right now and the gfs still shows basically nada so I think most are just being cautious. It will probably be a nowcast event which I will gladly take. I’d rather be in the game than not. I sure hope you are right though. 

[blackngoldrules]

On pins and needles just along the PA Pike in West Mo Co, so not so positive my friend.

That's funny. I think most people in this thread have him on ignore so that's probably why he thinks it's so quiet. The guy has been nothing but a troublemaker over the years and not worth the time.

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[lwg8tr0514]

2 minutes ago, BigBen89 said:

On pins and needles just along the PA Pike in West Mo Co, so not so positive my friend.

I have not read anything in the Central Pa thread about this AM's models to make me bag it and say it's a 38 degree rainstorm.  The GFS model seems to be the only one who wants to be the turd in the punchbowl and say its slop south of I-80, that seems to be an outlier.  Now the local mets are calling for 4-8", I just looked at my local weather app.