Mailman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just peeped the Euro.. not a far drive if you want to see 2 feet of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Snow map didn't really budge from 0z. It's actually funny, if you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro is brutal. Over 65 miles, you go from 2 inches to 24. Unfortunately, it's been somewhat consistent now. I'd feel a lot better if it was flopping between solutions. If we could ever get the blocking and this juiced southern stream to connect, we'd be fine, but we'll probably lose the moisture as soon as the blocking kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Golly... We are soooooooo close to something here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 6:39 PM, Mailman said: Snow map didn't really budge from 0z. It's actually funny, if you think about it.Yep. All you can do is laugh at this point. This has happened to us so often over the years that I stopped getting worked up about it a long time ago. It is what it is.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 No words. I predicted a Youngstown special and I may unfortunately have guessed right. Energy isn't sampled yet so this could change for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'd be done for the year if this verified. I just once want to track a big storm that actually nails us. Is that too much to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 6:54 PM, blackngoldrules said: Yep. All you can do is laugh at this point. This has happened to us so often over the years that I stopped getting worked up about it a long time ago. It is what it is. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Expand I don't know how many times a storm hit and my parents that live in southern Armstrong get 6+ and I have slush 10 miles south. Growing up I never realized how good it was living there. Typically I don't get to worked up anymore either, but when we are missing 24 inches by 50 miles it's like salt in the wound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 7:01 PM, Rd9108 said: I'd be done for the year if this verified. I just once want to track a big storm that actually nails us. Is that too much to ask. Expand I would be willing to bet the cutoff doesn’t show up like that. But yes what a gut punch that would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 6:39 PM, Mailman said: Snow map didn't really budge from 0z. It's actually funny, if you think about it. Expand It is very close to 00z, it did make an ever so slight improvement on totals to the SE, now gets almost 12+ into northern Allegheny, not sure how accurate that is though as these snow algorithms are pretty poor handling changeover situations. I know it's just noise but man is it close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 7:01 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: I don't know how many times a storm hit and my parents that live in southern Armstrong get 6+ and I have slush 10 miles south. Growing up I never realized how good it was living there. Typically I don't get to worked up anymore either, but when we are missing 24 inches by 50 miles it's like salt in the wound. Expand That’s interesting. I grew up a few miles south of the Armstrong border and never remembered doing that much better in these situations. It always seemed if the changeover was making it into the city it was inevitable we would change shortly after. I probably never had a consistent location to compare to like you did so that could be skewing my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 7:06 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: It is very close to 00z, it did make an ever so slight improvement on totals to the SE, now gets almost 12+ into northern Allegheny, not sure how accurate that is though as these snow algorithms are pretty poor handling changeover situations. I know it's just noise but man is it close. Expand I thought the stripe of max snow looked a little south from 00z as well. We’d still likely underperform on totals if that was the final outcome but that is close enough to keep things interesting for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 7:06 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: It is very close to 00z, it did make an ever so slight improvement on totals to the SE, now gets almost 12+ into northern Allegheny, not sure how accurate that is though as these snow algorithms are pretty poor handling changeover situations. I know it's just noise but man is it close. Expand On 1/15/2019 at 7:20 PM, dj3 said: I thought the stripe of max snow looked a little south from 00z as well. We’d still likely underperform on totals if that was the final outcome but that is close enough to keep things interesting for now. Expand Euro hasn't locked in yet, but it's getting very "uncomfortable". I know I'm sounding like the MA folks, but we can't afford another jog back to the NW tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 7:27 PM, CoraopolisWx said: Euro hasn't locked in yet, but it's getting very "uncomfortable". I know I'm sounding like the MA folks, but we can't afford another jog back to the NW tonight. Expand Yes I am thinking similar. The storm is 4 days out and you wonder if it is totally locked in because there should be some movement. A little South and we get into the Pinks and get in on our fair share of snow. I just don't see it coming back. I wish it would but if anything a northwest jog would take the pink areas north of I-80. And historically how many times is I-80 the battle zone? It seems like when our area gets in on the big snows the greater area is south and east of us. Very rarely do we get in the southern edge of a big storm. It would be a nice change but I am pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 EPS snowfall looks north compared to what the op just had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Goes more along the lines with north pgh’s last post. I-80 north looks safest. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 7:06 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: It is very close to 00z, it did make an ever so slight improvement on totals to the SE, now gets almost 12+ into northern Allegheny, not sure how accurate that is though as these snow algorithms are pretty poor handling changeover situations. I know it's just noise but man is it close. Expand The problem is, the changeover is always underdone as to how far north it goes. I have seen plenty of systems where up till a day out we were supposed to be snow here, and even the day we were supposed to be the mix like...and the sleet/zr line made it all the way up to I-80. I was at SRU during the Valentine’s Day storm I thing in the mid 00’s and even Pittsburgh was supposed to be all snow but we mixed all the way up to there. If that is what is showing now, I feel really pessimistic about a big snow event. I always push the mix line about 50 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Let's get some good news out there at least. 18Z NAM looking better for Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 PIT updated AFD long term says "it appears this low may track farther south allowing less warmer air to get pulled into the region and keeping more precipitation as snow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 8:31 PM, TeaysValleyWV said: PIT updated AFD long term says "it appears this low may track farther south allowing less warmer air to get pulled into the region and keeping more precipitation as snow". Expand sounds like they are as confused as we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro was actually better at 500 but didnt show at surface was but less ridging in the west will allow this to be flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 7:27 PM, CoraopolisWx said: Euro hasn't locked in yet, but it's getting very "uncomfortable". I know I'm sounding like the MA folks, but we can't afford another jog back to the NW tonight. Expand Yeah, it's usually pretty deadly accurate by day 3. That said, not sure a 50-75 mile track error is extreme at that range, problem is it could be 50-75 further NW. There was a storm a few year ago that was consistently pegged to hammer the whole state of PA, then the last 2 days a piece of energy started showing up on guidance rotating around the PV that shoved the whole storm into the Mid Atlantic. Can't remember the year, but remember it was around the time everyone in the media started talking about the "Polar Vortex" as if it was something new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 8:31 PM, TeaysValleyWV said: PIT updated AFD long term says "it appears this low may track farther south allowing less warmer air to get pulled into the region and keeping more precipitation as snow". Expand I saw this too. Maybe we have a weenie writing the AFD and they meant instead of "it appears" they meant "we are hoping" ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Been here since 2009 and I caution any newbies lurking ignore most of the posters with 1000+ posts here, they are wrong 75% of the time, the schtick is to mope and complain they are not getting 30" of snow, how G*d is screwing them or some other nonsense. We ran off the real Met(s) a while ago. We are 4 days out and most people whose job it is to know, have no idea what is going to happen. I point back to 2009 and up to 12 hours about 1/2 of the posters were poo-pooing that 30" monster we got(shall I call some you out?). Have you snowblower test run and gassed up and get your salt by tomorrow. We are in for a storm of 8+ inches. How much above 8" who knows. Ignore all the model hugging mouth diarrhea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 7:50 PM, dj3 said: EPS snowfall looks north compared to what the op just had. Expand Yep, EPS mean is NW, doesn't look like its a case of a couple extreme NW tracks skewing mean either, they all look pretty similar, there are some SE but could mean we see the OP tick NW at 00z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 8:59 PM, lwg8tr0514 said: Been here since 2009 and I caution any newbies lurking ignore most of the posters with 1000+ posts here, they are wrong 75% of the time, the schtick is to mope and complain they are not getting 30" of snow, how G*d is screwing them or some other nonsense. We ran off the real Met(s) a while ago. We are 4 days out and most people whose job it is to know, have no idea what is going to happen. I point back to 2009 and up to 12 hours about 1/2 of the posters were poo-pooing that 30" monster we got(shall I call some you out?). Have you snowblower test run and gassed up and get your salt by tomorrow. We are in for a storm of 8+ inches. How much above 8" who knows. Ignore all the model hugging mouth diarrhea. Expand Is this a Pittsburghrants troll account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 8:59 PM, lwg8tr0514 said: Been here since 2009 and I caution any newbies lurking ignore most of the posters with 1000+ posts here, they are wrong 75% of the time, the schtick is to mope and complain they are not getting 30" of snow, how G*d is screwing them or some other nonsense. We ran off the real Met(s) a while ago. We are 4 days out and most people whose job it is to know, have no idea what is going to happen. I point back to 2009 and up to 12 hours about 1/2 of the posters were poo-pooing that 30" monster we got(shall I call some you out?). Have you snowblower test run and gassed up and get your salt by tomorrow. We are in for a storm of 8+ inches. How much above 8" who knows. Ignore all the model hugging mouth diarrhea. Good thing I don’t have 1,000 posts yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Quite the front end thump on the icon. Definitely looks a bit south and precip colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 9:15 PM, KPITSnow said: Is this a Pittsburghrants troll account?Yeah, I think it is. I didn't catch that post because I think I put him on ignore a long time ago. He only shows up when there's a potential storm he can cause trouble over.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Gfs still takes the low over our heads and up into ny state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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