Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, dj3 said: The icon now brings the low basically right up to western Pa. The solutions that were spitting out big snow totals had more of a w/e trajectory underneath our latitude. Good thing it's the ICON. A model no one really takes seriously for forecasts. Gfs time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, MikeB_01 said: I think as i look at it now, its what we were talking about last night. The icon doesn't have the mix on tropical tidbits. I think the map that i posted early, even though it looks tasty, is probably a lot of ice Gotcha. Missed that earlier. That would make a lot more sense if some of that was sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Through hr 84, GFS is digging deeper with the energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Gfs looks horrible already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Even with the energy deeper, Damn PV is lagging behind even more. = Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Still days out but I just dont see this not giving us the WTOD I just dont. Of course I'm gonna track but I'll be happy with atleast a period of heavier snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ugly.... runs it right over top of us. Then we drop from 45-50 degrees to 15 in 6 hours. Enjoy your frozen shut car doors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Lows don't run up the spine of the Apps. This doesn't look right to my untrained eye. There is no transfer of energy to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, TeaysValleyWV said: Lows don't run up the spine of the Apps. This doesn't look right to my untrained eye. There is no transfer of energy to the coast. agreed. GFS is trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Yep. We're destined for slop once again followed by bitter cold. I say no thanks to both of those things, but that's how it's looking. Shocker. LolSent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ukie apparently is good so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: agreed. GFS is trash I agree but Canadian has about a 12 hour period of rain as well. There is still 4 days to go but our normal mix rain to rain back to 1-2 inches of fluffy backside snow and cold is on the menu ready to be served as our annual Winter special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: I agree but Canadian has about a 12 hour period of rain as well. There is still 4 days to go but our normal mix rain to rain back to 1-2 inches of fluffy backside snow and cold is on the menu ready to be served as our annual Winter special. Nope I'll build a HARRP machine and force this thing south before that happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 "Uncomfortable wobbles" for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On a positive side, the Thursday night system appears to be all snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: On a positive side, the Thursday night system appears to be all snow right now. You just read my mind. Maybe 2 inches overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 looks like an eastern position to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 You wanted south and east... I give you the UKie. I love the UKie, but this is so different from all other guidance. I hope that it is on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Honestly I'd rather it that. Let's see what the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 25 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: You wanted south and east... I give you the UKie. I love the UKie, but this is so different from all other guidance. I hope that it is on to something Definitely SE, but also is it slower? GFS at 120 already has the storm on the NY/PA border at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Honestly I'd rather it that. Let's see what the euro shows. I agree, baring some crazy dynamic storm I'd rather get fringed to the North and take 2-4 of fluffy snow followed by bitter cold than 2 inches of rain followed by a dusting and bitter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Definitely SE, but also is it slower? GFS at 120 already has the storm on the NY/PA border at that time. yes it is significantly slower. I think that is why we get the s and e trend. Cause the energy is slower, it never fully phases with the PV and keeps it moving more w to e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 That is probably best case scenario at this point, almost a perfect track that stays completely underneath us. I wish it wasn’t by itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Warm tongue signature is all over those ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 anywhere from 2-18 in. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: yes it is significantly slower. I think that is why we get the s and e trend. Cause the energy is slower, it never fully phases with the PV and keeps it moving more w to e Interesting. Well, sometimes the UKMET is a preview of the Euro or at least a hint at the direction it may move. The Euro "can" be a bit over amped in the medium range (day 4-6) so it's possible we could see it come back SE if its over doing the phase. Meanwhile the GFS is within the envelope so I'm not to worried about it yet. Looks like the CMC jumps the energy, not seeing other guidance do that really but would make sense to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Thoughts from PBZ: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights: - Still watching for potential winter storm Saturday - Coldest air of the winter Sunday - Monday - Keep checking forecast if you have plans Saturday Latest GEFS and EPS still offer up two camps of solutions for the track of low pressure. The latest trend is for more rain to mix in across southwest PA than previous runs as warm air on the windward side of the mountains gets pulled up /warm wedge/. However, we can't stick in a fork in a areawide accumulation because several GEFS members still point to several inches of the white stuff. One thing is certain, it will rain, snow, or a wintry mix thus allowing pops to be categorical. The earliest headlines /winter storm watch/ for the area won't be issued until Thursday, so still plenty of time for numerical guidance to get a better handle on the track of low pressure and if a coastal system develops. Ptype will change to all snow Saturday night as much colder air arrives. A light to moderate snow accumulation is possible Saturday night into Sunday. H8 temps plummet into the -20C range Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will likely fall all day Sunday while wind chill values fall below zero area wide Sunday night. If the forecast holds wind chill headlines look to be a good bet in the mountains and north of I-80. Thankfully clouds will be around Sunday night into Monday, otherwise the mercury would really bottom out. As of now, widespread single digits are forecast with sub zero values north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Still a brutally close call on the euro but I’m glad it’s not any worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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