MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Loving the positivity. It is still very early in this thing. Easy to get caught up in the model swings. Keep the faith everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The Germans are at it again. Check out that thump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 However, the more looking into this run on the ICON some weird things are happening. It shows a transition to rain at some point for us. The 2m temps are below 20°. Something fishy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 hour 96 on the GFS, the ridge in the west is better, the PV in the east is better. Hold on to your butts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 And that changed very quickly when the L decided to go right over AGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Has the look of another slopstorm. Seems like once these storms trend poorly for us they don't come back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Honestly, even though the GFS still looked bad, i think it made some improvements in the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 It's going to be a long week. Thinking about bringing out the detour sign to push this thing south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS has 35 and rain for another storm at the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 UKie looks east. Good enough for me. One day closer tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Well 00z guidance was actually pretty consistent... 2 camps from what I can tell, ICON and UKMET would probably be pretty solid hits. I am wary of the ICON as I remember hearing it doesn't handle ZR / IP on tropical tidbits, its either rain or snow. But you can see the general idea, snow to rain to snow while I-80 north gets pummeled, if the Euro map actually verifies that would be pretty depressing. One thing I have learned though is despite the fact the models look pretty consistent is that I have seen them all be consistently wrong. It's not that large of change to shift us into the better stuff and it's still well within the track error at the time lead. I'll try to leave my optimism hat on until Wednesday 12z, if it still looks bad then I think we all know all this movie ends lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Im pretty sure i would keel over on the spot if this map verified. Not a bad run. Here we go with the same situation we are always in. Need it job 50 miles to the SE and we will be alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 just to put some persepctive on this situation. It will be wed/thursday before we start to see what this thing will do. These runs are not bad and will hopefully shift in a good direction for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'm worried now. We have some ensemble members that now show a WTOD. Not good. I'm trying to stay positive but how can I when we always get screwed. Rant over let's see what 12z has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'm worried now. We have some ensemble members that now show a WTOD. Not good. I'm trying to stay positive but how can I when we always get screwed. Rant over let's see what 12z has to say. I'm pretty much already accepting that the WTOD is going to get us once again. Showing all the signs of that. If I get pleasantly surprised, then great. Not holding my breath since, like you said, this has happened so often to us.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: just to put some persepctive on this situation. It will be wed/thursday before we start to see what this thing will do. These runs are not bad and will hopefully shift in a good direction for us.. I agree, it won't be until at the earliest 12z tomorrow but likely not until Thursday that we can start to say anything one way or another. At least we have a threat to track, vs where we stood 2 weeks ago wondering if Winter would ever truly make an appearance this season. Odds favor if this one fails though there will probably be another to watch on it's heels. if you are purely results driven in this hobby, then its the wrong hobby or you live in the wrong place lol. Part of the fun is analyzing the runs etc. I'd be lying if I said I don't have some concern we miss this by 50-75 miles NW, then miss the next by the same margin to the SE, but that's how we roll in Pittsburgh for big storms lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, blackngoldrules said: I'm pretty much already accepting that the WTOD is going to get us once again. Showing all the signs of that. If I get pleasantly surprised, then great. Not holding my breath since, like you said, this has happened so often to us. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk It's a given for this area. It's just the way storms track through here and the topography. Rarely do we get the perfect scenario depicted on the early model runs. I feel it has to be a pretty wrapped up low to keep the low level warmth at bay, and a really good supply of cold air in place before the low approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 As far as I see it right now, we need one or two things to save this one from going north like the Euro and GFS intimates. Either the low remains less amplified and more strung-out, and perhaps delays amplification until it gets East of us (seems unlikely given the overwhelming model "consensus" this early), or we get a northern stream pulse, some kind of PV lobe to help suppress the low to our south. We don't have much in the way of blocking which is a serious problem, but we do have an advertised banana high, which may be too far north, and a potential 50/50 low to slow progression, which is the evolution of the Thursday/Friday shortwave. Oftentimes with these bigger storms, you'll see a table-setter event that basically portends where the snow will fall. As it looks like the pseudo clipper will push too far north to prevent a changeover, I worry the storm behind it will follow the same path. That second low would look better in Tennessee or even further south. If it tracks right over Kentucky, we're in trouble. I'd rather have one of the GFS or Euro on my side right now. I have much less confidence in the iCON and Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The spread on the 06z GEFS is unbelievable. Solutions of a monster snowstorm in Michigan or new England depending on the member. What does this mean? ---- These models know nothing right now. Thursday = huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The NAM for the clipper is 2-3. We may end up getting more from that than the actual storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Mount Holly's (NJ) current thoughts: The timing of the northern and southern systems will be key regarding the end results here in the East, as some guidance phases them and therefore the surface low tracks over or just west of our area. The track of the surface low will depend on where the baroclinic zone is placed and tightens, as arctic air will be pouring in on the backside of this storm. All of this will play havoc with not only the precipitation types but also amounts and therefore impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Let’s hope the euro is over amping things for now. Even a little adjustment back in the right direction would be huge for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just love the look of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Just love the look of this Icon hasnt very budged much. Very interesting how it's not had any crazy off runs. Like cmc jumped 500 miles in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Not as good as it looks. Still not bad but we need a southeast shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Just love the look of this Das ist gut! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The icon now brings the low basically right up to western Pa. The solutions that were spitting out big snow totals had more of a w/e trajectory underneath our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, dj3 said: The icon now brings the low basically right up to western Pa. The solutions that were spitting out big snow totals had more of a w/e trajectory underneath our latitude. I think as i look at it now, its what we were talking about last night. The icon doesn't have the mix on tropical tidbits. I think the map that i posted early, even though it looks tasty, is probably a lot of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 28 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Just love the look of this I wonder why the storm vista map is showing so much snow? The look on tropical tidbits has Allegheny county in rain for most of the frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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