Burghblizz Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:30 PM, Rd9108 said: Slopfest but alot of time and the UK improved so we are still in the game. Expand GFS looks to be generally snow, just more modest totals. Might be a scenario where just west of the city does better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:49 PM, Burghblizz said: GFS looks to be generally snow, just more modest totals. Might be a scenario where just west of the city does better Expand I’m fine with a 4-6” event even-I won’t complain if i end up with that imby....starting out as rain though would be horrendous and sloppy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Love the track from this run. Might be flying a German flag if the ICON keeps this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:54 PM, ChalkHillSnowNut said: I’m fine with a 4-6” event even-I won’t complain if i end up with that imby....starting out as rain though would be horrendous and sloppy.... Expand Which looking at the gfs it wasnt temps just more so less precip. Gonna be a long week of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:47 PM, MikeB_01 said: Not sure where the slop is coming from. I am looking at the soundings and while they say "freezing rain", the entire parcel of air is below freezing? Any ideas? Expand Interesting. Not sure why that would be. I'm mainly curious to keep an eye on 2 things, 1. Models keep the same general idea of the storm. 2. Keep an eye on track and see if we start seeing more going NW vs SE etc. We've been bit by the PV multiple times in the past over flexing and pushing stuff SE, hopefully for once it can help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 4:57 PM, Rd9108 said: Which looking at the gfs it wasnt temps just more so less precip. Gonna be a long week of tracking. Expand That's what I thought too. GFS seems to keep the system more disorganized which helps keep it SE of us. If it amps sooner we will need more confluence to keep it a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Much better from the UKie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 5:00 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: That's what I thought too. GFS seems to keep the system more disorganized which helps keep it SE of us. If it amps sooner we will need more confluence to keep it a snow event. Expand Noticed that too. The energy at the 500 mb level was really strung out from ohio through texas. When we were getting those massive totals, the energy was concentrated and bulldozing right into western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 With the parade of storms in the models, I hope this ends like another January 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro is a mixed bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I don't think this even tells the whole story... Probably a good bit of zr / sleet / rain mixed in... but: I know it's way to early to be analyzing soundings but would like to see how much of each p-type there is for fun. And total qpf:(I'd bet the under but still fun to look at) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pghwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 6:52 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: I don't think this even tells the whole story... Probably a good bit of zr / sleet / rain mixed in... but: I know it's way to early to be analyzing soundings but would like to see how much of each p-type there is for fun. And total qpf:(I'd bet the under but still fun to look at) Expand Lock it in. Hey all I have a quick question. I used to always chat with everyone on the accuweather forums...anyone here from there? I'm going to miss it this year I think with all these storms in the pipeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:10 PM, pghwx said: Lock it in. Hey all I have a quick question. I used to always chat with everyone on the accuweather forums...anyone here from there? I'm going to miss it this year I think with all these storms in the pipeline. Expand Welcome! I was never on the Accuweather forum, but i do believe some of the others on here spent some time on there. We have a pretty nice core group of people who post on this forum. Hope you'll join us for some tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:10 PM, pghwx said: Lock it in. Hey all I have a quick question. I used to always chat with everyone on the accuweather forums...anyone here from there? I'm going to miss it this year I think with all these storms in the pipeline. Expand I used to chat on those forums in conjunction with this site (which used to be easternuswx, as well). Been a while since I've been there, though. As for this weekend, I'm not buying any single OP solution just yet. All the finer details will have to get worked out as we get closer to the event. The most important note right now is that there is a signal for something big, and a pretty alarming signal at that - showing up on quite literally all the models a week out? Pretty incredible and honestly, rare. Being in the bullseye this early would be difficult to deal with, though. Don't want to get too invested in this system given the rather unusual path it could possibly take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On Weather.us the Euro snow precip totals bullseye went north yesterday, but has come back south the last two runs. The Euro has had us around 1.3" of precip as snow consistently so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Only problem I see with today's runs is the EPS went a little north. We can't let that mean keep going NW or we will feel the wrath of the WTOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 8:35 PM, Rd9108 said: Only problem I see with today's runs is the EPS went a little north. We can't let that mean keep going NW or we will feel the wrath of the WTOD. Expand If I were a betting man, I'd bet on this scenario. It's just happened to us so many times with Allegheny County usually being the dividing zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS looking like Euro, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pghwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 It's going to be back and forth for a few days. The last few GFS runs have trended a bit north...it's so early though. Wednesday and Thursday I think we'll have a pretty good idea of how it's going to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 10:16 PM, north pgh said: Expand Where have we seen this before? Usually about 4 or 5 times a winter. I hate to joke and I know this is still 5 days out but this still gives us a solid 5 or 6 inches with slop in between. 1. If the storm moves north we are even more screwed. 2. If it stays where it is you will see the same old local forecasts of a foot or more north of RT422 and I-80 and 4-6 in central Alleg county with mixing and 2-4 as you go further south. 3. If the Storm moves 50 miles south then we get our monster 8-12 that we have been waiting for. We need 3 but my odds if I were a betting man are 50% #1, 30% #2, and 20% #3. We are sooooooooo overdue on that 8-12 storm so I want and demand #3. Bring it!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 10:24 PM, north pgh said: Where have we seen this before? Usually about 4 or 5 times a winter. I hate to joke and I know this is still 5 days out but this still gives us a solid 5 or 6 inches with slop in between. 1. If the storm moves north we are even more screwed. 2. If it stays where it is you will see the same old local forecasts of a foot or more north of RT422 and I-80 and 4-6 in central Alleg county with mixing and 2-4 as you go further south. 3. If the Storm moves 50 miles south then we get our monster 8-12 that we have been waiting for. We need 3 but my odds if I were a betting man are 50% #1, 30% #2, and 20% #3. We are sooooooooo overdue on that 8-12 storm so I want and demand #3. Bring it!!!!!!!!! Expand Actually, we got an 8-12 incher in March haha. That said. I put the chances at: 1:60 2.35 3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This is the normal windshield wiper effect as Bernie likes to call it. As much as I want to be in the bullseye for 5 straight days we know it's not possible. This miles away from being a major storm and we are still days out. Let's see what the ensembles say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 FV3 did come a little south from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The good news is the seasonal trend has been to shift things south closer to the deadlines. Of course, with the pattern change, undoubtedly that trend will get flipped for the opposite when it no longer could favor us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The trend has gone way north in the last 24 hours. That’s not a good sign imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 2:24 AM, dj3 said: The trend has gone way north in the last 24 hours. That’s not a good sign imo. Expand Still alot of time. If we look at the 00z NAM the clipper is super juiced which boads well for a bigger cold push. Let's see what the gfs does before I go to bed and I can just be happy or disappointed tomorrow morning unless we get a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 2:24 AM, dj3 said: The trend has gone way north in the last 24 hours. That’s not a good sign imo. Expand That's really not unusual in this time frame. Large jumps in precise locations are relatively normal 4-7 days out. If it still looks like that come Thursday or Friday, then we can be concerned. Aside from that, the long range is showing some REALLY cold air dropping into the CONUS (as low as -22F locally). That will probably moderate in the mid-range, but we could see some bitter temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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