Rd9108 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Seems like this storm is ramping up on the models which makes the Sunday storm trend flatter which means its congrats WV and DC again. Still can change but not the trends you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 31 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Seems like this storm is ramping up on the models which makes the Sunday storm trend flatter which means its congrats WV and DC again. Still can change but not the trends you want to see. It’s the Saturday storm bombing out near cape cod that is making Sunday flatter on the 0z models. Pretty discouraging trends so far but I guess one of the risks with a fast flow and too many shortwaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 NAM is still a nice hit for Sunday. Just the GFS that’s looking flat. Still a couple days out. While we are worried about that, it is snowing! not surprisingly, advisory expanded to Allegheny county and south. Back end coming quick but it’s going to be a real interesting couple hours if you are awake. Definitely have some model agreement of a quick thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 22 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: NAM is still a nice hit for Sunday. Just the GFS that’s looking flat. Still a couple days out. While we are worried about that, it is snowing! not surprisingly, advisory expanded to Allegheny county and south. Back end coming quick but it’s going to be a real interesting couple hours if you are awake. Definitely have some model agreement of a quick thump. Naw the para, the gefs, the UK all came southeast and flatter. Still could trend north last minute but it's a thread the needle for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Pretty heavy snow right now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Euro went a little southeast, as well, with the heaviest snow for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Mailman said: Euro went a little southeast, as well, with the heaviest snow for Sunday. Could be beginning signs of the end of a bigger hit for us. As others have stated to many short waves in this fast flow will result in poor modeling until much closer in time. Need to get Saturday storm better resolved first, I’m still not sold we see a SE trend continue but certainly it’s possible. Until then I’ll keep looking out my window tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Recorded just over 3" here in Oakmont. I was really pleasantly surprised by this one!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 So after missing the last big storm 50-100 miles to the north, it is looking more and more like this one will be 50-100 miles south. The euro still shows a good hit but it is slowly caving to the other models. Maybe the euro will be right and stay where it is at, but I have little confidence after the January storm where it showed a foot the day before and it rained all day instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 12 hours ago, jwilson said: The other change at 18Z I noticed was the GFS wanting to crank that first low once it gets in the Atlantic on Saturday. That could rob some energy from the Sunday system and/or push it south. Not a favorable change, in my estimations. 0Z runs tonight will be telling. As predicted, the GFS has gone in a poor direction based on its own interpretations. We still have the Euro on our side, but right now it is alone in terms of a stronger and further NW solution, by far. The NAM is halfway in-between the two and considerably faster than the GFS. I tend to side with the NAM here, for now. It's a split and it nailed the far faster movement with the shortwave we had this morning. Obviously, lots of ways this can still swing. Range of possibilities from 1" to 12" .. how's that for a forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3.5” officially recorded bringing the season total to just over 32” Looks like this was recorded primarily between 10 and 2. So not that dissimilar to last week....but much much lower impact coming in the middle of the night. Also it looks like it fell on to a much warmer ground, and so road cleanup was easier. Hasnt turned out to be completely horrible this winter...a 6”+ snowfall Sunday would really help the overall feeling of this season. The NWS “experimental” probabilistic forecast puts this at about a 40-50% chance for most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Wave 2 looks pretty strong. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 NAM doesnt look like its budging with a euro like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 45 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: 3.5” officially recorded bringing the season total to just over 32” Looks like this was recorded primarily between 10 and 2. So not that dissimilar to last week....but much much lower impact coming in the middle of the night. Also it looks like it fell on to a much warmer ground, and so road cleanup was easier. Hasnt turned out to be completely horrible this winter...a 6”+ snowfall Sunday would really help the overall feeling of this season. The NWS “experimental” probabilistic forecast puts this at about a 40-50% chance for most locations. This has NOT been a god winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Rd9108 said: No it's definitely south Way south. I’d honestly call it awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Way south. I’d honestly call it awful. I imagine the euro will come south today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Rd9108 said: I imagine the euro will come south today. 2-4 inches...which is our speciality here. I’d honestly rather get nothing at this point. I have things to do Sunday, and this won’t be enough snow to cancel plans but enough to make it a pain in my butt to get around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 WPC still has us in the game. Probably will get an updated forecast after the 12Z Euro finishes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: WPC still has us in the game. Probably will get an updated forecast after the 12Z Euro finishes up. Even if the euro holds serve I have no faith in it to be correct after the January debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Let's not forget that even the gfs was too far south for the January storm. That mix line was almost up in New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Yep this is looking like a classic i95 storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Mailman said: It is either going to reclaim the title of king...or be extremely wrong again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 58 minutes ago, Mailman said: Still looks decent but that map is the Kuchera ratios, last couple we saw were 10:1, looking at that same algorithm it is clear we are getting less QPF, but track looks similar. My guess is it's less amped which could open the door for more SE adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Euro still considerably less impressive than it was (cutting totals in half or more). Honestly, at this time I'm over the nuisance snows. I'm big game hunting. If we can't get a big one, then I don't really care if the GFS verifies and we get flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Still looks decent but that map is the Kuchera ratios, last couple we saw were 10:1, looking at that same algorithm it is clear we are getting less QPF, but track looks similar. My guess is it's less amped which could open the door for more SE adjustment. Unfortunately that is a risk. We’ll have to hope the Saturday wave can be a bit weaker, then we’re right back in the warning level amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just watched a video by BR. He’s going 4-8 for Pittsburgh. Doesn’t believe the GFS based on what he’s seeing on the H5. Leaning towards the Euro. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 26 minutes ago, jwilson said: Euro still considerably less impressive than it was (cutting totals in half or more). Honestly, at this time I'm over the nuisance snows. I'm big game hunting. If we can't get a big one, then I don't really care if the GFS verifies and we get flurries. I also think the earlier runs of the EURO from the past few days had last night's storm in the totals so we are now deducting those out since the event has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said: Unfortunately that is a risk. We’ll have to hope the Saturday wave can be a bit weaker, then we’re right back in the warning level amounts. Weaker, faster or all of the above would do. I think we should be out of the woods on a to far NW track at this point. NWS call for 4-6 if verified would be "acceptable". We should never punt any event that could give 5+ in this area. Personally I'd like to see WSW with 5-8, which is doable, but with the speed and it being an open wave we can only expect so much. Watching the surface panels is excruciating.. I keep waiting for it to turn the corner but just keeps sliding ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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