ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 What about Friday morning?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Euro nudged south a bit. Hopefully the trend continues. Meet in the middle with GFS and we are looking decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Euro nudged south a bit. Hopefully the trend continues. Going to need a couple more nudges.. but Euro is the northern envelope of other guidance, so even a 70/30 split would probably be a solid hit. It is almost sickening to keep seeing this type of track though! One of these years we have to get stuck in a setup that constantly bulls-eyes SWPA right? Right!? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said: Going to need a couple more nudges.. but Euro is the northern envelope of other guidance, so even a 70/30 split would probably be a solid hit. It is almost sickening to keep seeing this type of track though! One of these years we have to get stuck in a setup that constantly bulls-eyes SWPA right? Right!? lol Naw we know that's what will happen. It will keep trending south. We will get really excited, I'll start posting every model picture that Jack pots us. Then 48 hours out we will start getting a north trend and some models will give us hope but the GFS will show that exact outcome above. We will say the gfs is off its rocker, but in the end it will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 NAVGEM looks like the Euro, which IMO is a bad sign. It has a progressive bias, so it is unusual to see an amped signal there. Normally I wouldn't care, and back in January the Euro lost to the GFS, but I'm hesitant to bet against it twice. It largely depends on how amped the Friday storm gets north of us. My non-scientific analysis: pick whichever result looks worse for us and bet on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Need the ICON to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Gfs a little further south. Not a bad look at this range but let's see what it does once we within 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Para gfs is a big hit for our area. Things are definitely interesting for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 The NAM gives us a little powder bomb early morning Friday (2-3"). No other models are on board, though. FV3 is nothing. GFS and ICON are a dusting. CMC tries to get southern Allegheny an inch. High-res NAM is drier (looks like a ridge special). Appears it will depend how moisture deprived the system is with a high sitting nearby. At least we have some wiggle room for the Sunday storm to come north (unless you're the Euro, of course). Better that than it being a cutter, but of course given the preceding low, we could easily miss the sweet spot thanks to suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 hours ago, jwilson said: The NAM gives us a little powder bomb early morning Friday (2-3"). No other models are on board, though. FV3 is nothing. GFS and ICON are a dusting. CMC tries to get southern Allegheny an inch. High-res NAM is drier (looks like a ridge special). Appears it will depend how moisture deprived the system is with a high sitting nearby. At least we have some wiggle room for the Sunday storm to come north (unless you're the Euro, of course). Better that than it being a cutter, but of course given the preceding low, we could easily miss the sweet spot thanks to suppression. Earlier WPC discussions are not accounting for the NAM. Pretty much just marking it as an outlier at this point. Of course they are. The one that gives us quick 2-3 is the disregarded outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Pretty interesting changes on the 00z GFS thru hour 90. Wouldnt be surprised if it looks more like the euro by the time this run is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Pretty interesting changes on the 00z GFS thru hour 90. Wouldnt be surprised if it looks more like the euro by the time this run is done Well the surface map didn't change much, but the pieces in play at the H5 certainly did. Notice the change of the ULL to the north. There is a pretty significant shift back to the west. Or at the very least, a less impressive eastern piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 big difference from this time last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Up listening to the radio so I finally got to look at the 0z models. Euro looks great for a foot of snow but it's still a few days out and we could still see some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 7 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Earlier WPC discussions are not accounting for the NAM. Pretty much just marking it as an outlier at this point. Of course they are. The one that gives us quick 2-3 is the disregarded outlier. 15 hours ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: What about Friday morning?? Just cycling through all the latest model runs, they all give us somewhere between 1-3 for Friday now (NAM close to 4) so I guess it warrants a bit more attention. Yesterday I pretty much had it written off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Up listening to the radio so I finally got to look at the 0z models. Euro looks great for a foot of snow but it's still a few days out and we could still see some changes. Euro looks the best right now, just about a perfect track. Other guidance is a bit further SE. Really only thing limiting this is how fast its moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Euro looks the best right now, just about a perfect track. Other guidance is a bit further SE. Really only thing limiting this is how fast its moving through. Would love to see the H5 on this run. Anyone have access to it?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/pennsylvania/wind-500mb/20190303-2100z.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/pennsylvania/wind-500mb/20190303-2100z.htmlI always forget these guys are free euro. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 11 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Earlier WPC discussions are not accounting for the NAM. Pretty much just marking it as an outlier at this point. Of course they are. The one that gives us quick 2-3 is the disregarded outlier. Funnily enough, all the overnight models pretty much caved to it. NAM leading the way. Looks like a fair 1-3" event overnight. Could make tomorrow morning's commute a mess. Still not in comfortable range for Sunday. The NAM at distance - so take it with a grain of salt, of course - looks a good bit different than the others (GFS bounced a bit south from 0Z at 6Z). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 NAM taken literally tonight is similar to last week in that it’s 3-4” in only a few hours. Although it looks to be more in the overnight hours. Don’t think this system is as dynamic, but it could be interesting for a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Burghblizz said: NAM taken literally tonight is similar to last week in that it’s 3-4” in only a few hours. Although it looks to be more in the overnight hours. Don’t think this system is as dynamic, but it could be interesting for a couple inches. Yeah it looks solid on the NAM. Only thing to be careful of is tonight gets to strong, it may help shove the boundary for Sunday system further South keeping us out of the heavier snow. Probably nothing to worry about just yet, but I will be keeping an eye on that today during 12z to see if the track shifts SE again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Hmmm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Hmmm. Now that is intriguing. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I’ve been asking about tomorrow for a few days as the central thread was posting about it-I hope it doesn’t get too warm for Sunday’s system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 HRRR showing a reverse tongue, with some heavier totals shooting up through the Mon Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Let the south PA get theirs tonight and then the metro and surrounding areas get hit Monday. I'm just worried if this is too amped it pushing the baroclinic boundary south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Euro looking good for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: I’ve been asking about tomorrow for a few days as the central thread was posting about it-I hope it doesn’t get too warm for Sunday’s system Yeah this threat has been getting better and better over the last 24 hours or so really. It sort of evaporated for awhile so I lost interest and shifted to Sunday / Monday. Given how things look now I'd think your location and elevation would do well with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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