north pgh Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 To my untrained eyes NAM looks pretty good. We get a nice 3-6 thump (probably overdone with more sleet mixing) turning into freezing rain/mix and never change to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3k high rez has like 3-5 inches of course I'd air on the side of lower especially when it comes to CAD. Regardless maybe our biggest snowfall of the season coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I'm not finding much reason to be impressed. Given history, I'm sure 1-3" is a safe bet. The 850s are screaming from the south, so the flip is always imminent with the position of the retreating high. We aren't in a strong CAD location. Might it be our last snow until March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 The changeover to rain is inevitable. Not a matter of if, but when. Probably a couple inches of snow at the most followed by a sloppy afternoon. We've been through this way too many times to think it'll stay all snow or even frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 52 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: The changeover to rain is inevitable. Not a matter of if, but when. Probably a couple inches of snow at the most followed by a sloppy afternoon. We've been through this way too many times to think it'll stay all snow or even frozen. Only thing I like is that the models seem to be showing a decent slug of moisture before we lose the column. I mean high end is probably 4 if everything works out perfectly for a small area. I wouldn't mind seeing some heavy sleet if it were in the cards. Just sick of rain.. Which we will get some of. If there was some blocking to hold the high further west things would be much more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 hour ago, jwilson said: I'm not finding much reason to be impressed. Given history, I'm sure 1-3" is a safe bet. The 850s are screaming from the south, so the flip is always imminent with the position of the retreating high. We aren't in a strong CAD location. Might it be our last snow until March? Nah.. I'm sure there will be some snow showers on the heels of the next cutter or 2 before March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 From MAG. I'll be back for the NAM most likely pushing south as is the norm for us The warm air will probably win out there as per usual but I think they have a decent shot at a few inches up front at least. Most of the model suite seems pretty supportive of that idea with the GFS being least so and the 18z NAM giving Pit a 6"+ event. To me this looks like a better setup for Pittsburgh metro than last week's storm. We don't have a strong defined low pressure to the lakes (there is still a low going west) and we have what should be a pretty sizeable wave of Gulf Moisture attacking the high pressure. This should deliver frozen up front in Pittsburgh and perhaps a pretty big portion of SW PA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Wicked RZ signal from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Wicked RZ signal from the NAM. NAM really has the surface temp holding below freezing until late in the day. That would be In the late afternoon still, after 6-7” of snow. It has been really consistent with a hard morning thump on Wednesday. It’s trending a tick faster which might help. Probably more likely to see about half that and over to plain rain in the afternoon. But Wouldn’t be shocked to see a couple hours of heavy snow early Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 GFS is not impressed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: GFS is not impressed . Yes but the Canadian is looking better. 3-4 now up from 1-2 at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 GFS is not impressed .And GFS has been the best model lately. Feels weird to say that but it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 NWS forecast holds steady. Actually increased the amount of Frz Rain expected WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulation up to two tenths of an inch expected. * WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM to noon EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 hours ago, Burghblizz said: NAM really has the surface temp holding below freezing until late in the day. That would be In the late afternoon still, after 6-7” of snow. It has been really consistent with a hard morning thump on Wednesday. It’s trending a tick faster which might help. Probably more likely to see about half that and over to plain rain in the afternoon. But Wouldn’t be shocked to see a couple hours of heavy snow early Wed I think the NAM is out to lunch on that. I'd be surprised if most of us weren't hovering around 32-34 degrees by 11am - 12pm with plain rain, some sleet and the occasional mangled flake. Even if we managed to stay at like 30-31 for a few hours longer, the rain will be coming down pretty good and it will be afternoon in mid Feb. Not a recipe for significant icing. I agree on the heavy snow, NAM still seems to want to put a decent band over us and with temps warming maybe a period of moderate to heavy snow. That is what has most of my interest in this event, if we can eek out a period of intense snowfall that should be fun to watch if you don't happen to be stuck out on the roads. Definitely going to be another morning to get up early and hit the road by 4:45am for work to avoid the commute chaos that is likely to ensue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Looking at the models and data, it looks like a solid 3" Smiley on KDKA isn't buying any of it, says less than 1"...starts as rain, quick burst of snow, then ice back to rain. Although I guess that is consistent with the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The NAM is slowly drifting further and further north...where have we seen this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: The NAM is slowly drifting further and further north...where have we seen this before. It's the NAM and hasnt been very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Rd9108 said: It's the NAM and hasnt been very good. Yeah, but the gfs has been locked in and has been pretty good and showing us getting next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I think the NWS has a good handle on this one. 2-3 for AGC. If business is booming early on, then we might get 4. If its a bust, we are somewhere around 1. Also a chance for some freezing rain. Regardless, impacts for tomorrow morning's commute will be high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: I think the NWS has a good handle on this one. 2-3 for AGC. If business is booming early on, then we might get 4. If its a bust, we are somewhere around 1. Also a chance for some freezing rain. Regardless, impacts for tomorrow morning's commute will be high. Agreed. Right now the gfs is the warmest and is worst case. Curious to see if the euro holds serve. I'd be happy to somehow get 4 but I think 2-3 is the right call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 HRRR (12z - 36hr) showing a really go thump at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Agreed. Right now the gfs is the warmest and is worst case. Curious to see if the euro holds serve. I'd be happy to somehow get 4 but I think 2-3 is the right call. Seems the 12z GFS has moved toward the other guidance somewhat, in that it's not insisting on a shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Any thoughts on upgrading this to a warning? I know that it doesn’t meet criteria per se, but 1-3 inches and two tenths of an inch of ice has to be pretty close when combining the two. Also, the timing is really bad and will make this highly impactful....id think 3 inches of snow and then freezing rain on top could warrant a warning especially since we are likely to get pretty heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Any thoughts on upgrading this to a warning? I know that it doesn’t meet criteria per se, but 1-3 inches and two tenths of an inch of ice has to be pretty close when combining the two. Also, the timing is really bad and will make this highly impactful....id think 3 inches of snow and then freezing rain on top could warrant a warning especially since we are likely to get pretty heavy precip. Probably not until tomorrow morning, when the actual impact is being felt. However if the rates are heavy enough, the nws might upgrade anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12z euro map is posted in the cpa thread and we get a really good hit. If we could get more than 4 inches I’d be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: 12z euro map is posted in the cpa thread and we get a really good hit. If we could get more than 4 inches I’d be thrilled. Normally I would be thrilled too but I think I remember the last storm the Euro and Nam had us getting some good snows and the GFS didn't and the GFS won out. If GFS is correct we get a quick inch and then slop sleet a couple hours to heavy rain. If the NAM, Canadian and Euro win out we get anywhere from 3-6 and a slower changeover in the afternoon. Hoping against the GFS. Fingers crossed. If we do get the 3-6 it will come in a short period of time with Heavy snow for a couple hours with good rates. Something we rarely ever see anymore in Western Pa. I would like to see it at least before the warm and rain returns later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, north pgh said: Normally I would be thrilled too but I think I remember the last storm the Euro and Nam had us getting some good snows and the GFS didn't and the GFS won out. If GFS is correct we get a quick inch and then slop sleet a couple hours to heavy rain. If the NAM, Canadian and Euro win out we get anywhere from 3-6 and a slower changeover in the afternoon. Hoping against the GFS. Fingers crossed. If we do get the 3-6 it will come in a short period of time with Heavy snow for a couple hours with good rates. Something we rarely ever see anymore in Western Pa. I would like to see it at least before the warm and rain returns later in the week. Yep. I’m just as skeptical. I think at this point forbthe last storm the euro was giving us a foot and then it rained all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Yep. I’m just as skeptical. I think at this point forbthe last storm the euro was giving us a foot and then it rained all day. Euro ..........used to be........King. It needs to be re-crowned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Point and click upped my totals as did the hourly forecast. 2-4 inches of snow now. I’m going bullish here and say we get 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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