north pgh Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 solid inches here. Still coming down. On pace for 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Heavier burst again, but that backend looks to be racing through Ohio. Maybe 1-2 more hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just about 3" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 2.75 here. Just shoveled my driveway. Just some light drizzle now. Looks like some mix in the morning and a lot of rain tomorrow night. Rinse and repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The next threat will be south just watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 34 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: The next threat will be south just watch. Wouldn't surprise me, but at this point starting this weekend we at least have a chance with multiple storms on the map if the models are right and we don't take 2 steps backwards. Overall each run has made some decent changes that will hopefully shift the storm track SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I wasn’t crying too much over this one...took my initial 3” and enjoyed a nice Sunday afternoon and evening. Probably would rather that then have gotten 5” that got encased in ice, then washed away anyway. Weekend looking interesting, albeit not looking like a large storm at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 14 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: I wasn’t crying too much over this one...took my initial 3” and enjoyed a nice Sunday afternoon and evening. Probably would rather that then have gotten 5” that got encased in ice, then washed away anyway. Weekend looking interesting, albeit not looking like a large storm at this point It never looked to crush us so it was easier to deal with it. Looks like the models are starting to catch onto the mjo going into 8-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: I wasn’t crying too much over this one...took my initial 3” and enjoyed a nice Sunday afternoon and evening. Probably would rather that then have gotten 5” that got encased in ice, then washed away anyway. Weekend looking interesting, albeit not looking like a large storm at this point Heh.. not that it will happen this way but just cycled through the 12z GFS surface maps and after Friday it's just storm after storm through 384 and they all give us some type of snow. Would be great if we could get a solid 3-4 weeks of winter where we at least have a chance then rocket right into Spring in mid March with slightly above normal temperatures and below normal precip to dry things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Good news is we have a lot of threats to track for the time being and what looks to be improving pacific / tropical trends. Models are locking onto multiple events of southern rather than western origination. Near-team: we have what looks to be one or two more cutters to deal with before changes. Friday is the certain one before a southern slider drives by on Saturday. GFS tries to connect some of this energy to the stuff crashing into the pacific NW as it crosses the country. The Sunday system is the other possible cutter, but is more intriguing for us locally. The evolution is unusual, and I would think the position of the low would mean rain or mixing for those of us susceptible to that WAA. At least until the low gets east of us. GFS seems to hint at redevelopment off the coast, but it's a quick mover. Long-term: the main event I am looking at is focused on next Wednesday. The GFS has had a pretty strong signal for something significant for five runs in a row now. There have been minor changes over those runs, but it a classic Miller A look, and despite the time from onset, the model's consistency is what has me intrigued. I won't get too mired in the details yet. It has slowly shifted north the last three runs, even getting us into mixing territory as it dropped the confluence. The antecedent storm seems to pump heights ahead of this one, which helps it dig and explode. Keep an eye out. In fantasy land, there are a couple more southern solutions after that primary one, but that's too far out to focus on other than - at least it isn't showing cutters. I think what's driving these changes for the GFS is the expectation of a strong-amplitude MJO Phase 8. Obviously, that expectation is a difficult one to rely on, and if the evolution is any different, we may not maintain the current favorable looks. The remaining teleconnections show possible improvement, as well, including a crashing AO and a possible blocking element from the NAO regions. Still not an ideal western ridge, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Gusty line of heavy rain with the cold front moving through. Not much else to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 Strong winds are here. House is shaking. Thank god we didn't get any ice. We should see our 1 inch or less of blowing snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Well winter is coming back. We will be tracking starting this weekend. There's at least that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 is there a reason the PIT forecast office doesn’t snow squall warnings? This would be the time to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Pretty intense squall in Robinson in the last 15 minutes. Probably a quick inch or close to it in that time. This has be hungry for a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 White Aht dahntahn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stjbeautifulday Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 White out in Robinson. Roads covered real fast. Wish I’d realized it was going to happen, might not have ventured this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 26 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: is there a reason the PIT forecast office doesn’t snow squall warnings? This would be the time to do it. The last warning I remember was Feb ‘93...but we got warning criteria snows with it as well.....~8” if I recall. A rare but glorious site from just a lake effect band. ive seen other offices lately put up warnings for just the event of a squall, but haven’t seen Pit do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Not sure of the last warning, but I do recall Hazard Weather Outlooks or Special Weather Statements being issued for such things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Ugh.. Through day 10 GEFS look pretty lousy. We had a couple good runs where it squashed the SE ridge, but more and more -PNA in the last few runs. Pretty much the opposite of what you would expect for MJO 8-1 in a Nino.. I've been reading and following some of Jason's posts and he has some evidence that with a weak PV in a Nino MJO 8-1 is actually bad for cold in the East and given the GEFS and EPS as of late they are SE ridge happy for sure. In any event if this is right expect more of the same, rain followed by some back end snow. I'll be watching this hoping to see a change. We have a shot this weekend into early next week so hopefully we can score something then or this look just doesn't manifest as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Not sure of the last warning, but I do recall Hazard Weather Outlooks or Special Weather Statements being issued for such things. PIT was one of like 8 offices to pioneer the new “snow squall warning” for use as an official alert. To my knowledge, they haven’t used it. CTP has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 7 hours ago, Burghblizz said: PIT was one of like 8 offices to pioneer the new “snow squall warning” for use as an official alert. To my knowledge, they haven’t used it. CTP has. Yeah, I saw it I think a couple weeks ago? Everyone east of us got the snow squall warning. today was a whiteout with 35mph winds. I’m not sure when else it would be used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 48 hours later and I'm a lot less optimistic about the next week. The -PNA is killing us, and the MJO appears to be dying in Phase 8 as it did last time. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if it looped around the COD and re-emerged into the warm phases again. Maybe that's unlikely to happen given other conditions, but this winter has been a real test of patience. We're back to tracking cutter solutions in the mid-range. Maybe March has a freak out of sorts, which is still possible, though unlikely. The only way I could see us salvaging something is with a -NAO block. The problem is we haven't been able to establish one, or anything close to it this year. The big +AO is just another negative factor. Not quite ready to cancel the rest of winter, but I'm pretty darn close. "I want to get off Mr. Bones' Wild Ride." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Have we even had an advisory level event yet this season? We that unexpected snowfall the other night our biggest of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 This doesnt look good now. The thing that sucks is that instead of outright torching we may just ride the border of being too warm to snow and just get cold rain. Not to mention the south east ridge is showing up now and usually that doesnt bode well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 52 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Have we even had an advisory level event yet this season? We that unexpected snowfall the other night our biggest of the year? We technically had an advisory for the storm that missed to the north back in January. Of course the advisory was cancelled, so you probably can't count that because it didn't verify. Officially, I'm finding the biggest snowfall at the NWS location is 3.4" on January 20th. Locally, we've had a number of 2" storms this year, but 3" is probably the absolute max. Annoying I can't measure at my place so I don't have specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 According to what I’m seeing doesn’t look good through the end of February. Maybe March will bring the big one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: According to what I’m seeing doesn’t look good through the end of February. Maybe March will bring the big one.... Yeah, maybe we can score an Ash Wednesday 1962 type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, jwilson said: We technically had an advisory for the storm that missed to the north back in January. Of course the advisory was cancelled, so you probably can't count that because it didn't verify. Officially, I'm finding the biggest snowfall at the NWS location is 3.4" on January 20th. Locally, we've had a number of 2" storms this year, but 3" is probably the absolute max. Annoying I can't measure at my place so I don't have specifics. Im looking through some of my CoCoRaHS measurements. Biggest snowfalls I have recorded was the recent one Feb 11 (2.5") and Jan 13 (2.5") My first day of participating was Jan 13, so my measurements don't go back any further than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Im looking through some of my CoCoRaHS measurements. Biggest snowfalls I have recorded was the recent one Feb 11 (2.5") and Jan 13 (2.5") My first day of participating was Jan 13, so my measurements don't go back any further than that. Thank you! I thought that storm back in November was our biggest of the season, but I guess it wasn't as big as I thought (most area measurements for it I see are <2"). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now