jwilson Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Well, we're entering the February doldrums. Remember when it used to be a cold and snowy month? Pepperidge Farm remembers. Anyway, finding something to talk about here... I discussed a week ago how we may be punting at least the first half of this month. I think that's still correct, with a low-snow pattern likely to consume two to three weeks of this month, but the progged warm period may not extend beyond this week. We're dealing with extremely hostile teleconnections, including an AO that looks to spike severely positive for a brief period. A lot may depend on the extent of the MJO's laps around the warm sectors. It does look like - eventually - we'll get favorable forcing out there in the tropics. Perhaps a brief seasonal look of NINO qualities? The MJO may finally head into Phase 8 and beyond. If you believe the GFS, it will take perhaps a week or so longer to get there, while the Euro has a quicker evolution. At this point, waiting a week longer for anything is a dangerous proposition. March has arguably become our new February of late, so it isn't all bad just yet, but I'd say we need things to happen sooner rather than later. The other positive we may get by mid-month is some actual blocking. That's a big if in this winter, though. The one positive for now is we aren't full-blown torching like the last couple years. After this week, we'll probably ride the boundary for a while. Basically, seasonal temps, as we've seen most of the year. All the breaks from seasonal norms this year have been brief. I think the current five days would be the longest such period of the winter. As for snow chances: Friday possible with a changeover situation as we had last week, but like last week, I probably wouldn't expect much. Next week is the transition period, so again, probably not much in the way of snow. There's some slight potential a week from today. The look is convoluted on long-range models, and the process definitely favors a cutter/warm solution, but we could have a cold high to the north that forces the primary south of us. Warm tongue concerns, sure. We might sneak in an overrunning event after that one, say on either side of Valentine's Day. I do hope we can get into something workable before February is over, otherwise I'm tempted to say Phil's forecast may be relatively accurate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/4/2019 at 10:01 AM, jwilson said: Well, we're entering the February doldrums. Remember when it used to be a cold and snowy month? Pepperidge Farm remembers. Anyway, finding something to talk about here... I discussed a week ago how we may be punting at least the first half of this month. I think that's still correct, with a low-snow pattern likely to consume two to three weeks of this month, but the progged warm period may not extend beyond this week. We're dealing with extremely hostile teleconnections, including an AO that looks to spike severely positive for a brief period. A lot may depend on the extent of the MJO's laps around the warm sectors. It does look like - eventually - we'll get favorable forcing out there in the tropics. Perhaps a brief seasonal look of NINO qualities? The MJO may finally head into Phase 8 and beyond. If you believe the GFS, it will take perhaps a week or so longer to get there, while the Euro has a quicker evolution. At this point, waiting a week longer for anything is a dangerous proposition. March has arguably become our new February of late, so it isn't all bad just yet, but I'd say we need things to happen sooner rather than later. The other positive we may get by mid-month is some actual blocking. That's a big if in this winter, though. The one positive for now is we aren't full-blown torching like the last couple years. After this week, we'll probably ride the boundary for a while. Basically, seasonal temps, as we've seen most of the year. All the breaks from seasonal norms this year have been brief. I think the current five days would be the longest such period of the winter. As for snow chances: Friday possible with a changeover situation as we had last week, but like last week, I probably wouldn't expect much. Next week is the transition period, so again, probably not much in the way of snow. There's some slight potential a week from today. The look is convoluted on long-range models, and the process definitely favors a cutter/warm solution, but we could have a cold high to the north that forces the primary south of us. Warm tongue concerns, sure. We might sneak in an overrunning event after that one, say on either side of Valentine's Day. I do hope we can get into something workable before February is over, otherwise I'm tempted to say Phil's forecast may be relatively accurate. Things look to be heading towards more favorable for snow chances after this torch shutout week. Tropical forcing still looks on track to support a colder outlook. Looks like we head into a gradient storm track setup next week with the usual caveats, a strong wound up storm probably cuts and we rain, while east CADs into a decent event but a perfectly timed weaker wave could dump some WAA snows, or if timed perfectly with confluence a bigger storm could be forced underneath. Case in point, the FV3 (never thought a model would out do the Canadian in showing digital snow for us but its slowly taking that role) gives us this from a nearly perfect Miller B transfer. Nothing else really shows this but given the week of warmth even some digital snow is nice to look at: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 17 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Things look to be heading towards more favorable for snow chances after this torch shutout week. Tropical forcing still looks on track to support a colder outlook. Looks like we head into a gradient storm track setup next week with the usual caveats, a strong wound up storm probably cuts and we rain, while east CADs into a decent event but a perfectly timed weaker wave could dump some WAA snows, or if timed perfectly with confluence a bigger storm could be forced underneath. Case in point, the FV3 (never thought a model wouldout do the Canadian in showing digital snow for us but its slowly taking that role) gives us this from a nearly perfect Miller B transfer. Nothing else really shows this but given the week of warmth even some digital snow is nice to look at 2 Digital snow lol I just really wish that it wasnt the FV3. I haven't seen the verification numbers on this model, but i have a hard time thinking that this is the model that will replace the current GFS. Never seems to perform well. Maybe the blind squirrel will find the nut with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 4 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Things look to be heading towards more favorable for snow chances after this torch shutout week. Tropical forcing still looks on track to support a colder outlook. Looks like we head into a gradient storm track setup next week with the usual caveats, a strong wound up storm probably cuts and we rain, while east CADs into a decent event but a perfectly timed weaker wave could dump some WAA snows, or if timed perfectly with confluence a bigger storm could be forced underneath. Case in point, the FV3 (never thought a model would out do the Canadian in showing digital snow for us but its slowly taking that role) gives us this from a nearly perfect Miller B transfer. Nothing else really shows this but given the week of warmth even some digital snow is nice to look at: *snip* Funny enough, the 18Z FV3 keeps a similar look, though it is less wound up early and shifts the heaviest snow south into the mountains and Virginia. The Canadian looks like the GFS, which shows the familiar cutter look. The 12Z Euro is a bit of a compromise, but looks too warm initially so it would probably be a lot of rain, as well. The fact that they are all showing an explosive system makes this something to keep an eye on, but I'd be more inclined to buy the cutter solution right now. I don't see blocking yet or much of a western ridge to set the trough in the East where we'd want it. It isn't much, but the 2-4" we could grab on Monday may be our best bet. The FV3 has given us a ton of digital snow this year a week out from systems. I don't know what it is with this model, but it seems to be verifying even worse than the GFS (which is doing quite poorly overall this winter). I assume the difficulty forecasting this winter is the main reason for its poor recognition. Hopefully in the future, with more steady patterns, it isn't a total fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 The Para owes me a lot of snow this year. Still a few days out and in this winter who knows what will happen with that storm. Bernie has a good video on it and it wouldn't take much to atleast give us a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: The Para owes me a lot of snow this year. Still a few days out and in this winter who knows what will happen with that storm. Bernie has a good video on it and it wouldn't take much to atleast give us a shot. All I need is one 12 plus storm and I will be satisfied. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 8 hours ago, north pgh said: All I need is one 12 plus storm and I will be satisfied. We have multiple chances coming up with an active storm track so we at least get to roll the dice several times. I really don't have much confidence one way or another at this point. Models have been worse than usual this year, and unless we get some stable blocking that trend would likely continue. With so many storms on the map, it will be hard to look past one with any accuracy. I could easily see us getting a nice thump then 24 hours later a massive rainstorm which is not the most enjoyable setup for me personally, but I guess beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 Hoping for some thunder this evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, north pgh said: Hoping for some thunder this evening YES! Just saw the forecast discussion. Keeping the threat of a few rumbles in there. Would be a nice treat to hear a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Looks like some possible front end snow with the cutter but we never do well in those situations. That warm tongue will charge north and make sure we switch to rain as soon as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Perhaps we should move to Seattle for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Don't look now, but the 6Z GFS gives us a pasty white bomb for next Friday into Saturday. Closed low over the Delmarva and slowly treads off the coast of New Jersey. Starts right where we want it really, just south of Pensacola in the GOM. A true Miller A feast. Setting up PD3? That is one of the best weekends. Now how long until it completely dismantles that solution? I give it until 12Z, haha. The first event coming through (Monday) is looking weaker on the GFS. Maybe a 1-2" flop storm. All the energy is held back in the West until it consolidates and bowls through as a cutter. Pretty much what we expected, but it could help setup that following system. I'm sure the current look will flip-flop but at least it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 8, 2019 Author Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, jwilson said: Don't look now, but the 6Z GFS gives us a pasty white bomb for next Friday into Saturday. Closed low over the Delmarva and slowly treads off the coast of New Jersey. Starts right where we want it really, just south of Pensacola in the GOM. A true Miller A feast. Setting up PD3? That is one of the best weekends. Now how long until it completely dismantles that solution? I give it until 12Z, haha. The first event coming through (Monday) is looking weaker on the GFS. Maybe a 1-2" flop storm. All the energy is held back in the West until it consolidates and bowls through as a cutter. Pretty much what we expected, but it could help setup that following system. I'm sure the current look will flip-flop but at least it's something to watch. This may happen as I am supposed to travel next weekend. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 8, 2019 Author Share Posted February 8, 2019 GFS gives us 1 inch of snow and mostly rain thru mid next week. Canadian gives us 8 inches of snow. GFS has been better this year so I have to side with it. However I would take a compromise of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just like that it's a cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Just like that it's a cutter. As expected. I don't know about you guys, but I am totally fatigued watching these cutters over and over. And for whatever reason the GFS models these things almost perfectly. Anything else and it just shrugs its shoulders. I'd be curious to know if places in the midwest are setting snowfall records this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 monday morning commute might be a little dicey. Not necessarily because of the snow, but I think there may be a little freezing drizzle hanging around. NAM soundings seem to indicate it at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Maybe a surprise 1-3 with the first wave of the storm before the warm air invades. Who knows maybe we can eek out 4 and get a nice little event before it all melts and floods everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Hires models looking a little better for tonight 12 z HRRR and 3k NAM coming in with 3+ for the first wave slider. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: Hires models looking a little better for tonight 12 z HRRR and 3k NAM coming in with 3+ for the first wave slider. Would be nice to pull a 3+ event out of this. The fact it gets washed away 12 hours later reduces my interest though, unless we get enough there is a frozen glacier on the ground afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Would be nice to pull a 3+ event out of this. The fact it gets washed away 12 hours later reduces my interest though, unless we get enough there is a frozen glacier on the ground afterwards. True... I don’t think we get that 3+ anyway. 3k nam looks too impressive. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Enjoy it while it lasts. :) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 Short term models showing 3-4 inches. Nice surprise tonight. Nice to see it snowing while daylight and we can actually see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, north pgh said: Short term models showing 3-4 inches. Nice surprise tonight. Nice to see it snowing while daylight and we can actually see it. Very rare for me. I get to see it snow while it's still daylight and I don't have to drive around it for a change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Accumulating pretty quick. Was out during the first hour of snowfall and even the roads were getting covered. Didn't see much in the way of salt trucks for preparation. Based on early returns, probably 1/2" or so already, this looks like it might overperform. Sadly it all gets washed away tomorrow through Wednesday, just in time for another cutter and rainstorm. The GFS is showing backend snows, probably overdoing lake effect or something, but maybe we get something there. Next week might have potential, but at this point I'm not wasting my breath on it, because a couple models hold the energy until the high passes then cut the system. Until the pattern actually changes, I'm not getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 HRRR still showing snow into late morning tomorrow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 641 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2019 OHZ040-041-050-PAZ020-021-029-073-074-WVZ001-002-110045- Jefferson-Columbiana-Carroll-Westmoreland Ridges-Westmoreland-Beaver-Washington-Allegheny-Brooke-Hancock- 641 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2019 ...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHERN JEFFERSON... SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIANA...EAST CENTRAL CARROLL...NORTHERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN BEAVER...ALLEGHENY...CENTRAL WESTMORELAND... NORTHEASTERN BROOKE AND HANCOCK COUNTIES... At 639 PM EST, an area of heavy snow was located along a line extending from Midland to Trafford. Movement was east at 25 mph. A rapid inch of accumulation is expected with visibility a quarter mile or less. Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Penn Hills... Mount Lebanon... Bethel Park... Ross Township... McCandless Township... Monroeville... Moon Township... McMurray... Greensburg... Weirton... McKeesport... This includes the following highways... Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 53 and 57. Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 37 and 38, between mile markers 40 and 41, and between mile markers 44 and 75. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 44 and 77. Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 39 and 84. Icy roads are possible as snow melts and refreezes. LAT...LON 4032 7915 4014 7995 4057 8102 4070 8020 TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 271DEG 23KT 4066 8048 4039 7977 $$ Hazardous Weather Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 hours ago, north pgh said: Short term models showing 3-4 inches. Nice surprise tonight. Nice to see it snowing while daylight and we can actually see it. Really nice late afternoon, although roads suck already It’s been uncanny how much night time snow we have gotten over the last 9-10 years. Most areas seem to have 1.5” to 2” currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Lol sitting on my deck right now 30 and coming down good. This is nice. Got to sled ride with the boy before it got dark. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Drinking a nice glass of whiskey and enjoying the snowfall. Yep I said it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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