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✨Pittsburgh PA ❄ Winter 2018-2019


north pgh
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31 minutes ago, meatwad said:

Wednesday Night into Thursday looks interesting, anafront heavy rain to heavy snow possible.

bWm6u2N.png

Looks interesting on FV3 for sure, NAM seems to want nothing to do with it though right now. Doesn't really develop a wave along the front and things dry out pretty quickly once the front goes through. 

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1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Looks interesting on FV3 for sure, NAM seems to want nothing to do with it though right now. Doesn't really develop a wave along the front and things dry out pretty quickly once the front goes through. 

Given how the NAM performed on the last storm....ehh what am I saying, it will be rightthis time.

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35 minutes ago, Mailman said:

18z GFS in line with the 12z FV3.  Too bad we're a week out.  It doesn't take much to get me sucked in, though.  

GFS has had this weird evolution.  I don't think we're likely to know anything until the first threat or two passes through.

That quasi clipper becomes a massive cyclone over Maine while it is separated from the rest of the northern flow.  The second low behind it then becomes a southern slider of sorts that taps into gulf moisture and pulls energy from the west coast.  Very bizarre looking to me.  That said, the setup provides some decent blocking and appears to have potential to dig further (thus intensify rapidly).

A couple inches for this changeover event on Thursday looks possible, maybe a clipper on Sunday, then this one on Tuesday.  Certainly an active period.  Hopefully it produces for us.

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Some relatively light but frequent systems about to move through over the next few days. Shouldn't amount to too much, but you never know when one of these clippers can over perform and we get a quick 3-4 in. Next window to watch is tues-thurs. The trough the digs in and give us the cold air wants to keep rotating energy around the trough. If some of the pieces can come together, we might have our next system. Only time will tell

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58 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Just some observations on the front that is set to move through tonight. Still a long way to go, but not much precip behind the front. Too much dry air and therefore not much snow.

 

 

.

 

Yeah that and Temps aren't going to crash right after it goes through so that will limit accumulations for what does fall I think. Maybe a coating to an inch. Real cold doesn't settle in until tomorrow night. 

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9 hours ago, Mailman said:

I posted about Tuesday and it's trended north ever since. lol.  

Yeah, we really need it to dive underneath us, otherwise southerly winds out ahead will probably push us into the mid 30s, plus moisture and forcing will be limited. The 6z FV3 actually takes it on a decent track for us but it's on it's own for now. Hopefully we can get some snow before this though, I think I'll take the over lol!

fv3p_T2m_us_30.png

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I think this graphic perfectly encapsulates this winter:

1819winter.thumb.png.f09f9ce0476712a8af6d30529321326b.png

Every storm has driven a wedge of warm air through the cold.  And there's plenty of cold air accessible.  Look at the singles and negative readings just north of Lake Ontario.  Not to mention two frames before this we have temps in the teens.  I won't say this is the worst winter I've tracked through, because it probably isn't, but it is definitely one of the most annoying.  A never-ending cycle of cutters and rain storms, with cold air following storms rather than syncing up with a moisture flow.

The long range GFS isn't encouraging (very northern stream dominant).  The FV3 tries to build more southern-centric coastals, but they are all suppressed out to sea due to the polar air.  At this point, it is hard for me to believe the pattern is actually going to change for our benefit.  The MJO is still quite unfavorable and really needs to get into Phases 8 thru 3 at this point, but it has been living in the opposite regions.

The only thing that could possibly save us is a tanking AO.  If that happens (and it's a big if), it could help position a -NAO, which may help prevent cutting systems, but we still need the pacific to improve considerably.  I feel like that's the biggest impediment to our snow chances.  Because the pacific flow has been generally poor for months now, I don't know that there's a quick fix.  I'd say maybe by end of February or March, but by then we're out of prime climo and snow chances.  Of course, if the pattern ever does break down, perhaps there's a significant storm during transition.

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Hey assholes I'm back. This damn hobby will always suck me back in. I should just face the facts. Long range NAM looks good. We need that low to cut far north so we get a solution like the NAM is showing. Nothing significant but a 2-4 snowfall would be welcomed in this abysmal winter so far. 

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