KPITSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 So I know they probably aren’t getting paid...but the KPIT discussion on this storm hasn’t changed in two days. That said, I have a hard time blaming them but they tend to do this even when not shutdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z NAM all snow at KPIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: 12z NAM all snow at KPIT KAGC would probably be more intersting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, KPITSnow said: KAGC would probably be more intersting. Yea i agree. Unfortunately I can't find a similar chart for KAGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBen89 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: 12z NAM all snow at KPIT Could you do one for LBE? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Rgem drives the low up to the west of pit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, BigBen89 said: Could you do one for LBE? Thanks. unfortunately no. Here is my list of places I have access to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, dj3 said: Rgem drives the low up to the west of pit. Always overamped but I still think the city on south mixes unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It was actually a lot better at 0z that gave me some hope. But yes let’s hope it’s over done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Always overamped but I still think the city on south mixes unfortunately. I fully expect some sort of mixing well up into butler county. Just the way it always works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I forgot to mention there is a slight freezing rain hazard possible for places that change over to rain. If the surface doesn't warm as much as the 850s, which is possible if the primary low stays as far south as some models indicate, southern Allegheny into Washington and Greene counties could see a prolonged freezing rain event. Maybe .25-.50 which is a lot of freezing rain. The 3K NAM does push surface temps up to 33-34 or so while the 850s stay below freezing, so that's more of a sleet/snow or even plain rain signal, but the opposite is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 26 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I fully expect some sort of mixing well up into butler county. Just the way it always works. I wouldn't get too discouraged yet. The Canadian has the low closer to Pa border and gives all of Allegheny Co 6-10 from south to north. The GFS has the low down in West Virginia and brings snow line much further north. Right now I'd give all of Allegheny Co a 50/50 chance or a nice snowfall. Some models will nail this and some will be wrong but I think the only model that will be 100% right is what actually happens and we won't know that until about 6:00 pm on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I think now is the time that we start focusing in on the short range models and not so much with the globals. but I could be wrong... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Update for next week's system: I'm watching the 12Z GFS and notice a lot of energy hanging around at H5. Obviously, the initial wave is a cutter and does us no good, but after that we see a bit of packed dynamite hanging around in the south and down into Mexico. This is at hour 126, so it isn't fantasy range. The present evolution of this isn't useful for us, but what we could eventually get to is a classic Miller A if the NS drops in and phases. We'd have the 50/50 low and a high pressure to our north. Too early and west with the phase and that's bad (like the CMC shows), but if the low develops in the Gulf and pushes east, then phases, we have a pretty significant storm that would probably be decent for us. It goes without saying but it all depends on the location and timing. Despite the rain storm ahead of time, there is a possible out to another good event next Thursday/Friday. I guess we'll see how it goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I think now is the time that we start focusing in on the short range models and not so much with the globals. but I could be wrong...We are now in the NAMs wheelhouse. I think the fact that the 12z showed no mixing at KPIT (a little points south) is very encouraging. Almost to nowcast time. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: We are now in the NAMs wheelhouse. I think the fact that the 12z showed no mixing at KPIT (a little points south) is very encouraging. Almost to nowcast time. . Here’s my forecast in chalk hill: wintry mix tomorrow morning, rain to snow at night with 1” snow expected-Sunday morning snow showers with less than an 1” expected.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 52 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: We are now in the NAMs wheelhouse. I think the fact that the 12z showed no mixing at KPIT (a little points south) is very encouraging. Almost to nowcast time. . 12z NAM was disregarded by WPC as an outlier. Don't hang your hat on it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I’m reading the Euro has caved to the gfs. UnReal. All those times we have watched the GFS dump on us while the euro gives us garbage, the GFS always caves to the euro....except when the euro jackpots us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Kuchera... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Mailman said: What is wrong with this? Unless you are near the southern border? Since when is 5-9 inches of snow a bad thing? Keep the faith. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Mailman said: Kuchera... Yeah, that looks great, but it keeps ticking north, and given our climo in AGC (you’re screeed either way) I push that all at least 25 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, north pgh said: What is wrong with this? Unless you are near the southern border? Since when is 5-9 inches of snow a bad thing? Keep the faith. It is the fact that it keeps bumping north...and the fact that our events almost always set up the mix line 25-50 miles further north than modeled. So while it shows a foot...given other guidance and our general history with storms I’d be shocked if Pittsburgh gets more than 6 inches before a rainstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBen89 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 See Yinz all next week! Bye for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 My thoughts. Yes it bumped north but the 12z runs have been doing that everyday. Hopefully the NAM stays where it's at or bumps south and we can have some wiggle room. We just know the history of our area and how the warm air surge is usually under modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longdong Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hey all ,how is evreyone?Does night time and this being mid January help any with the wtod?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I always find this a fun and informative page. Probably not a lot that we don’t already know this time: Navigate to the probabilistic tab https://www.weather.gov/pbz/winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'll take 4-8 and call it a day with how boring this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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