stjbeautifulday Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Good morning! I’m totally a novice and enjoy reading here and getting excited with all of you! Trying to learn! What model does Al Roker use?! I don’t watch to get my local weather but thought it was interesting to see he only had the northern portions of New England getting big numbers. We weren’t getting much of anything based on his map. Thanks for the banter! Love reading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: That's funny. I think most people in this thread have him on ignore so that's probably why he thinks it's so quiet. The guy has been nothing but a troublemaker over the years and not worth the time. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Just love internet tough guys trolling. Got a problem with me friend? I never once mentioned anyone by name here. Let's keep it about the weather and not get personal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBen89 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 FWIW - NAM thru 69 hours. Includes a bunch of sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBen89 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 A lot of this shown is sleet/freezing rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah this is the real snowfall and it's awful. I've been saying Youngstown special and it's looking like more and more I'm gonna be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 A lot of this shown is sleet/freezing rain...Yeah, we're going to see a little bit of everything most likely and it'll cut down on the actual snow amount. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Anyone know what the 6z euro showed? Nvm great timing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6z Euro Euro keeps ticking north. I'd certainly take what it's still giving us but you can see it's slowly moving toward the other models. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We really can’t afford any more nudges north on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 36 minutes ago, lwg8tr0514 said: I have not read anything in the Central Pa thread about this AM's models to make me bag it and say it's a 38 degree rainstorm. The GFS model seems to be the only one who wants to be the turd in the punchbowl and say its slop south of I-80, that seems to be an outlier. Now the local mets are calling for 4-8", I just looked at my local weather app. I'm not trying to be a downer, but your location says Cranberry Twp, you are North and East of the City. If I were you I would be confident, anyone from Butler / Armstrong county NE is probably going to get mostly snow, that's favored by climatology in these storms. For those South of there though where the mix line sets up is critical as always. Until the GFS and Euro camp settle on a general outcome making any definitive statements like anyone from Washington county north gets a foot is not wise. You may end up right, but doesn't necessarily mean your logic to reach that conclusion was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, dj3 said: We really can’t afford any more nudges north on the euro. I agree, I'd actually be curious to see the Kutchera map, I'm betting its not as good as the blanket 10:1 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The Euro control and EPS both were north of the OP this morning. That's a bit of a red flag at this juncture. I'd bet even the Euro and Ukie maps - which look decent enough - look much worse if you filter out sleet. The NAM basically gives the metro area a foot of sleet. Wouldn't surprise me much if a lot of that turns to rain in real-time. My confidence is waning. I haven't jumped off the bridge just yet, but I have my toes to the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If we lose the UKie I'm throwing in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Icon looks a little better but still a razor thin line cut off. Looks to have a little less precip in general wonder if that will be a trend with the low jumping east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 50 minutes ago, stjbeautifulday said: Good morning! I’m totally a novice and enjoy reading here and getting excited with all of you! Trying to learn! What model does Al Roker use?! I don’t watch to get my local weather but thought it was interesting to see he only had the northern portions of New England getting big numbers. We weren’t getting much of anything based on his map. Thanks for the banter! Love reading! AFAIK, Al Roker isn't even a meteorologist. He has a B.A. in Communications. The people behind the scenes are probably using the GFS mostly, or some kind of blend. Right now, though, most of the models aren't on our side if you're looking for heavy snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBen89 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, jwilson said: The Euro control and EPS both were north of the OP this morning. That's a bit of a red flag at this juncture. I'd bet even the Euro and Ukie maps - which look decent enough - look much worse if you filter out sleet. The NAM basically gives the metro area a foot of sleet. Wouldn't surprise me much if a lot of that turns to rain in real-time. My confidence is waning. I haven't jumped off the bridge just yet, but I have my toes to the edge. ...red flag in hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not seeing any favorable changes on the GFS.. actually may be a bit worse. But I'll let it run through before getting irritated lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Amazing how steady the gfs has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Not seeing any favorable changes on the GFS.. actually may be a bit worse. But I'll let it run through before getting irritated lol Thought 6z looked a little better and maybe it was converging to euro and ukie. 12z looks like a big step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The low does something weird on the gfs it maybe right but I cant see a low doing what it did. Come one euro and UK youre our only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, dj3 said: Thought 6z looked a little better and maybe it was converging to euro and ukie. 12z looks like a big step back. Yeah... this won't work lol NWS will be issuing watches.. for small creek and stream flooding. I just did the 24 hour snow accumulation to keep the 1-2 from today off the map.. Pretty deflating, but maybe an inch on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: The low does something weird on the gfs it maybe right but I cant see a low doing what it did. Come one euro and UK youre our only hope. "The GFS really should not be holding onto that LP over Pittsburgh like it is. The 500mb would not be able to exhaust a LP there anymore at this time and it should have gone off the Delmarva like the ICON. Not saying it should be as snowy as the ICON or that the ICON is right, just saying looking at that 500mb, that LP should have pushed SE by hour 60 instead of running into Pittsburgh. Looking at 500 there CAN NOT be a LP underneath that, that is not the way the atmosphere exhausts to the SFC. But being that the GFS cannot pick up on mesoscale resolutions as well as others, it hangs onto the LP longer than it should because it doesn't yet see the next LP developing as fast as the mesoscale models." I want to make sure that I give credit to who posted this. I thought it was very insightful. It comes from @snowwolf on the USA Weather thread. He is listed as a meteorologist. @Rd9108, might explain that weird action you mentioned on the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: The low does something weird on the gfs it maybe right but I cant see a low doing what it did. Come one euro and UK youre our only hope. The Euro almost always beats the GFS... How many times have we had the GFS look good only to cave to the Euro.. Of course this time it will work the other way around with our luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: "The GFS really should not be holding onto that LP over Pittsburgh like it is. The 500mb would not be able to exhaust a LP there anymore at this time and it should have gone off the Delmarva like the ICON. Not saying it should be as snowy as the ICON or that the ICON is right, just saying looking at that 500mb, that LP should have pushed SE by hour 60 instead of running into Pittsburgh. Looking at 500 there CAN NOT be a LP underneath that, that is not the way the atmosphere exhausts to the SFC. But being that the GFS cannot pick up on mesoscale resolutions as well as others, it hangs onto the LP longer than it should because it doesn't yet see the next LP developing as fast as the mesoscale models." I want to make sure that I give credit to who posted this. I thought it was very insightful. It comes from @snowwolf on the USA Weather thread. He is listed as a meteorologist. @Rd9108 might explain that weird action you mentioned on the GFS I fully expected to see the GFS make a big jump towards the Euro, and Euro make a tiny movement towards the GFS placing the mix line precariously close, probably bisecting Allegheny county. I guess we will see if the Euro caves to the GFS or even makes a moderate adjustment towards that type of setup we are probably cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We have lost the UK it seems. Oh well it was fun tracking. Until the next storm. Maybe we will get our storm this year. The kiss of death was whenever the media was hyping this up over a week out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looking like the cutoff will go to Rt 422 if this holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Only hope and I mean the only hope is these models are off by a bit. Let's be honest they can only do so much when it comes to little details and in this situation 50 miles, 1 hour slower, 1 hour faster, quicker transfer. Any of these small factors can change us from cold rain to heavy snow like that. I'm definitely pessimistic and I'm leaning 80% rain/mix but I can see how the models bust in our favor. They aren't perfect and even the storm last week didnt have DC getting the 12 inches they got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ukie a little north I'm hoping it's just an over correction. Still gives the metro on north a huge thump but it cant bump north anymore. I'm hoping with sampling models are just overcorrecting. Euro cant come north anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ukie pretty much in agreement with every other model now bringing the low to the wv/pa border. Snow map keeps norther Allegheny around a foot but not gonna buy that with lp position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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