jwilson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: I think the big thing to remember from the 18z Euro is that we still don't really know how the version of this model performs. It only goes out to 90 hrs or so and is very new. Similar to how I put more stock into the 00z and 12z runs of the GFS and NAM. Not sure if there is any validity to what i just said, so take it for what it is worth That's a good point. I really don't know much about these off-hour runs. However, the 6Z continued the 0Z movement which ran into 12Z. For the 18Z to go back the other way makes me a tad nervous. Perhaps we won't like what we'll see at 0Z, or maybe it's nothing. Here are the last two runs compared: You can see the gradient has moved up into southern Allegheny. Of course, the snow isn't entirely finished in the bottom run, but it's probably done for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, jwilson said: That's a good point. I really don't know much about these off-hour runs. However, the 6Z continued the 0Z movement which ran into 12Z. For the 18Z to go back the other way makes me a tad nervous. Perhaps we won't like what we'll see at 0Z, or maybe it's nothing. Also a good point... Hopefully the answer is nothing and we can get a little more southen trend. Id just feel more comfortable with it further south. More room to for when it undoubtedly comes back to the north. Time to break out the detour signs again tonight? They worked well last night. We all woke up happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 SREFs are staring to get into range now too. Just another tool we can use. Honestly, the mean looks pretty inline with the UKie and the Euro. And it really has some outliers to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That tick back north by the Euro definitely concerns me only because it's been the southern outlier up until now. I hope that isn't a sign that it's going to start caving in to the others. We'll see.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 you guys are wishcasting. you know the WTOD overperforms. These models are screaming SWPA screwjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 0Z NAM - still at range, mind you, so somewhat limited utility - has the primary low crossing through Kentucky. That's too far north. Huge WAA surge in the end. There would be a snow to rain to light snow scenario. Not a great solution, pretty much blends the GFS and Euro. Unfortunately, we basically need all Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 A foot of sleet on 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM basically looks like AGC is the cutoff. Generally that means the frozen line pushes about 25-50 miles north and we turn to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Make the phasing stop please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 you guys are wishcasting. you know the WTOD overperforms. These models are screaming SWPA screwjobI said a couple of days ago that if I was a betting man, I'd bet that the WTOD would get us yet again. I haven't changed that opinion, but I guess seeing the Euro hammer us has given some hope for us to cling on to. If it's starting to tick back north then that'll be it. Another slopfest. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Fing A. AGC is always the pivot point. It's crazy how consistent that idea is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The 0Z NAM is the worst looking way to get to 12-14” ever. Somehow does, but likely a lot of sleet and slop in reality. Definitely don’t like it’s look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So im still breaking down the NAM. AGC goes no warmer than 32° surface temp the entire time. The thing that is the most maddening about this is that the NAM warms to 1°C at 850. 1°... Its crazy that 1° could keep us from a pretty epic snowfall for the area and plunge us into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Fing A. AGC is always the pivot point. It's crazy how consistent that idea is. 3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: So im still breaking down the NAM. AGC goes no warmer than 32° surface temp the entire time. The thing that is the most maddening about this is that the NAM warms to 1°C at 850. 1°... Its crazy that 1° could keep us from a pretty epic snowfall for the area and plunge us into the mix. Definitely too close for comfort at the surface, but especially at 850. I would prefer to see that 850 low nudged further south, to add a more easterly component, thus slowing the warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: So im still breaking down the NAM. AGC goes no warmer than 32° surface temp the entire time. The thing that is the most maddening about this is that the NAM warms to 1°C at 850. 1°... Its crazy that 1° could keep us from a pretty epic snowfall for the area and plunge us into the mix. Unfortunately, I have to think cwc is correct. Anything remotely borderline and we'll probably lose the fight to rain. Now I haven't been living near the city long, but I'm very familiar with the warm tongue, and I don't see a fresh source of cold air to keep it at bay (unless there's something I'm missing). If the primary tracks on a line from Kentucky to WV, we're probably warm. If it goes through Tennessee and waits until Virginia to pivot or transfers to the coast, we may be okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If the nam has the low position right I highly doubt that much frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I honestly don't think anyone here has been "wishcasting", btw. We all know by now the odds are stacked against us with storms like this. We all know how often that WTOD has ruined storms for us....especially where I'm at. I just think with the Euro giving us that great solution for several runs, it was worth taking seriously since it's usually regarded as one of the top models. We've seen it on it's own before and others cave to it. That being said, with a setup like this, it's hard to ignore history.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Sometimes the the quick painless death of the 18Z GFS-FV3, is better than these fringe jobs. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Btw, I wouldn’t mind a sleet storm. Haven’t had one of those in ages. Just not freezing rain or plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Btw, I wouldn’t mind a sleet storm. Haven’t had one of those in ages. Just not freezing rain or plain rain.Can't tell you how sick I am of rain at this point after the wettest year ever.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Oh freaking goodnEss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Btw, I wouldn’t mind a sleet storm. Haven’t had one of those in ages. Just not freezing rain or plain rain. Feb ‘07 had a storm that was like 7” and a pile of sleet. It was a pain, but not horrible in terms of witnessing a decent “event”. Obviously though, there were thoughts of what could have been. If I recall correctly, it was well forecasted so not like forecasted totals got ripped in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Burghblizz said: Feb ‘07 had a storm that was like 7” and a pile of sleet. It was a pain, but not horrible in terms of witnessing a decent “event”. Obviously though, there were thoughts of what could have been. If I recall correctly, it was well forecasted so not like forecasted totals got ripped in half. I was at college at slippery rock, and we even mixed there. A great example of how hard it is to hold onto all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This wouldn't be as bad if we hadn't gotten teased by the Euro and a southern shift by some others last night. Not only does mother nature hate us, but the models like to mess with us too. LolSent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Now the GFS is just being spiteful haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS is north =BAD Canadian holds=GOOD We are still 2+ days out and not locked in. I think tomorrow they all come together and we can end this misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, north pgh said: GFS is north =BAD Canadian holds=GOOD We are still 2+ days out and not locked in. I think tomorrow they all come together and we can end this misery. Tomorrow the system comes ashore and we get some sampling of the system. I think the 00z run tomorrow night is probably what the storm looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm looking for the Euro to go further south tonight. I see there's a cutter in play for the middle of next week. Yippee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We need the primary to get shunted east sooner. It’s getting too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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