north pgh Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Regardless the trend is better for us. Remember it is only Tuesday night. Hopefully it is not going any further north than before. Too many things can happen. I'll go to bed and hopefully the Euro comes down a little more. We need to get this thing far enough south that our friends in Southern Allegheny Co. can get in on the action too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 We need to get this thing far enough south that our friends in Southern Allegheny Co. can get in on the action too. Need that detour sign to give it just one more nudge. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Detour this thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: Need that detour sign to give it just one more nudge. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk This helped us bring the 2010 storm north after everything was missing south. Now we need it to help bring the storm south. Either way here it is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GEFS is south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 You guys should like the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The Euro has definitely been juicing this thing up more than the other models. Can we lock this in? Probably not. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Pretty decent 00z suite last night, especially the Euro. I haven't been paying to close attention to the 18z EPS, but this is the second time now that they foreshadowed the direction the OP would trend at 00z. GEFS and EPS are also SE, UKMET came north a bit but it's just more in line with Euro. Good to see improvements as we draw closer. Hopefully we are seeing a narrowing of the goal posts now and no big swings to the SE or NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6z Euro looks to support the 00z at 90 hours, haven't seen the 6z eps yet. If I get a chance it will be interesting to note what they show vs what 12z Euro does. Now we nervously wait for 12z runs. I think we are seeing changes that we need, (faster NS shortwave and slower SS shortwave) which is less phasing, less amped which leads to colder outcome here. Of course this will probably lead to less qpf and lower snow totals, so don't expect to see 30in, but I'd gladly take 6-12 all snow over what was being modeled yesterday. Honestly we could probably take a few more SE ticks from last nights Euro to buy some wiggle room as we know the warm wedge is usually under modeled at range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 It is interesting that any region right now can cherry pick a model and say they are in the bullseye. Which means that there is still massive uncertainty on where this thing is headed. That said, relying on climo, I'm predicting that the WTOD is gonna win out here in PIT. Its on every model to some degree, and usually comes out stronger than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Nice surprise to wake up to this morning with the overnight runs. Everything looks like it trended toward a little less phasing. The euro snow map has the jackpot over my house so that’s an image I’ll be saving haha. Great to see the north trend stop for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon on tropical tidbits is a mess lol, its SE from what I can tell, but shows rain with surface temps in the mid 20s. Also looks like it tries to jump the low to the coast. Probably toss for more proven models for now. EDIT: Think I was off on the 2M temps, not sure what I was looking at or maybe it was an old run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Icon on tropical tidbits is a mess lol, its SE from what I can tell, but shows rain with surface temps in the mid 20s. Also looks like it tries to jump the low to the coast. Probably toss for more proven models for now. Yes. ICON is a slop fest. If you want to see maps with the differentiated precip, use https://www.weathernerds.org/models/icon.html. It shows a long duration of heavy HEAVY mixing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Gfs seems to be very consistent with placing us on the southern edge of the cut off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12Z roundup so far: High-res NAMs look like all snow for tomorrow's event. The GFS is less certain, poking in the warm tongue. City on south would probably mix verbatim. As for the weekend, the GFS remains consistent with a north and more phased system. FV3 and Icon much the same as the GFS. The Canadian is going to look the same once it gets out to range. The overnight run of the Euro was a continued improvement from 12Z yesterday, we'll have to see if it continues that trend or folds to the GFS. The Ukie last night was also much farther north than yesterday's runs. Overall, I think this is one of those systems that comes down to the wire. Meaning: even as the event starts, we aren't quite sure what we're going to get. We have working against us a lack of fresh cold air, as evidenced by the shortwave that may not even stay frozen, and zero blocking. We don't really have that banana high anymore, either, until late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS has gone back north a little with its last two runs after jumping south with the 0z run last night. The Euro of course jumped south last night hammering us. Curious to see if it goes back north a little as well. Hope not. Usually the GFS eventually caves to the Euro so hoping for that. Knowing our luck, this will be the one time the opposite happens. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 CMC actually looks a little better. I think we need that idea of the primary dying and coastal transfer to take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 FWIW, ECMWF 06z run was even a little further south than the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 UKie still looking alright. Good feeling that the UKie and the Euro (at least for now) seem to be moving to the same solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Well shit not the trends I wanted to see. I have basically given up on seeing significant snow with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 @MikeB_01 wow really sharp gradient for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Honestly not much change from the 00z...Still ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I'd love to see the euro come further south just a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I'd love to see the euro come further south just a little. We're probably lucky it's as far south as it is at this point considering the other models. Seems to be the outlier right now. Euro is usually very good at this range so hoping the others join it eventually and not the other way around.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, blackngoldrules said: We're probably lucky it's as far south as it is at this point considering the other models. Seems to be the outlier right now. Euro is usually very good at this range so hoping the others join it eventually and not the other way around. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Yeah, we have seen the euro in its own so many times then the other models cave to it. Hopefully that happens here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro from the central thread sounds decent for us with low placement. Waiting to see maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, KPITSnow said: Euro from the central thread sounds decent for us with low placement. Waiting to see maps. Hearing th same from the USA weather forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro doesnt back down. I'd rather have it in my corner than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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