Mailman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Regardless of the low track, it's still gonna be snowy and rather chilly on Sunday. So all is not lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 23 minutes ago, dj3 said: Gfs still takes the low over our heads and up into ny state. Yeah, I've noticed the GFS past several runs strong with the WAA, driving the warm air further north than the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Yea I’ve noticed that too. It is Showing a lot less frozen than the euro for similar tracks @CoraopolisWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Like it has already been mentioned, the WTOD is typically underestimated by the models. The models are already pulling it far north days in advance. I've had storms where I was forecast to get a couple inches of snow before the changeover and I ended up with about 5 or 10 minutes of snow and then a quick change to rain. I wouldn't be surprised if I get that again in my area from this one. At least some of you north of Pittsburgh might hold on to the snow longer before the changeover.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, lwg8tr0514 said: Been here since 2009 and I caution any newbies lurking ignore most of the posters with 1000+ posts here, they are wrong 75% of the time, the schtick is to mope and complain they are not getting 30" of snow, how G*d is screwing them or some other nonsense. We ran off the real Met(s) a while ago. We are 4 days out and most people whose job it is to know, have no idea what is going to happen. I point back to 2009 and up to 12 hours about 1/2 of the posters were poo-pooing that 30" monster we got(shall I call some you out?). Have you snowblower test run and gassed up and get your salt by tomorrow. We are in for a storm of 8+ inches. How much above 8" who knows. Ignore all the model hugging mouth diarrhea. I-80 isn’t safe on that GFS run. How many times can this happen to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 We’ve got the deep thunder and icon on our side so all hope is not lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, dj3 said: We’ve got the deep thunder and icon on our side so all hope is not lost UK Met. There were positive changes on the gfs and euro at 500. Also the NAM looks like it would be in the UK camp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: UK Met. There were positive changes on the gfs and euro at 500. Also the NAM looks like it would be in the UK camp. Good point I forgot about the ukie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The NAMs at range look like all snow for that pseudo clipper Thursday. Won't be much, but hopefully it stays all frozen. There were improvements on the Euro at the upper levels, so not all is lost, but I'll be extremely concerned if the Ukie folds to the Euro/GFS camp. Outside of that, we still have to get into NAM range for the main system to completely give up hope. Things certainly not ideal right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Found a better site for the icon maps. This one contains the mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 This the only reason I'm optimistic. I got it from usawx forum. This was the gfs before this past weekends storm. It was a little too far north. How did that work out? Let's be honest it's a different set up and usually we dont do well in these storm tracks but until the snow is falling we can still get a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 For the clipper coming through, NAM appears to be all snow but the GFS is showing rain mixing in with this one too. NWS seems to be leaning toward GFS with their forecast since they are forecasting a mix of rain and snow, at least for my area. Even with a clipper, we have potential p-type issues.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Not sure where to find this model, but got it off a post on the USA weather forum. Add the IBM Deep Thunder model to the SE camp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18z EPS, looks like several are SE of 12z op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 NAM looks like it would be in the UK camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon brings primary further north. Not great but it is a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS About to run. I really think we need to start to see a correction south starting tonight, or at the very least it not going any further nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS About to run. I really think we need to start to see a correction south starting tonight, or at the very least it not going any further nw.Everyone got their detour signs ready??. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Rd9108 said: Icon brings primary further north. Not great but it is a terrible model. Yeah, but the fact it was the only one in our camp really and was agreeing with everything else is a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Well.. GFS seems to be a slight improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Mailman said: Well.. GFS seems to be a slight improvement. Not a bad thing. We dont need crazy trends just slow corrections back south. Uk is apparently decent and possibly the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Not a bad thing. We dont need crazy trends just slow corrections back south. Uk is apparently decent and possibly the CMC. Gfs will improve to the point that the storm missed us south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS is definitely an improvement. Another better run for the upper levels. The southern stream got out ahead of the wave in the PV. Thats a welcomed thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 This run just makes me want to move to the North Hills. Screw the South Hills. I'm done with you. LolSent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 hours ago, dj3 said: Gfs still takes the low over our heads and up into ny state. The low is transferring to another low that is moving up the coast. That would be better for us I believe? Henry Margusity predicted this earlier. Wouldn’t this bring the cold air in earlier and get more snow from the second low? Just asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, blackngoldrules said: This run just makes me want to move to the North Hills. Screw the South Hills. I'm done with you. Lol Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk amen to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, north pgh said: The low is transferring to another low that is moving up the coast. That would be better for us I believe? Henry Margusity predicted this earlier. Wouldn’t this bring the cold air in earlier and get more snow from the second low? Just asking. Pretty sure this was exactly what happened feb 5-6 2010 when we got bombed. Really that is always our best scenario outside of the rare bomb miller A...primary dies as it gets over us, yet we are close enough to the coastal to be in banding from that too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Given that the freezing line got up to Dubois on the 18z I’d call this a huge improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 MSLP just seems to far S and E to rain for us. The cold air behind this thing is insane . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: MSLP just seems to far S and E to rain for us. The cold air behind this thing is insane . I think the surface would in actuality be better but it's good to see it come back south east for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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