Mailman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Finally something to track. FV3 is very tasty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Mailman said: Finally something to track. FV3 is very tasty. GFS has a monster too it's just a little too far south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 As long as the H5 look stays the same all week, we have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said: As long as the H5 look stays the same all week, we have a chance. Yeah that track is pretty sweet. We don't see one track like that very often. Snow map for your viewing pleasure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Dang... I wish this wasn't 7 days out. H5 looks like an awesome setup. Good energy and some cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 FV3 has already teased us with some digital KU classics this season, only to fold to the old crowd closer to the event. Not buying in yet. I am a bit apprehensive about the FV3 replacing the current GFS, however. Seems - at least over the last month or so - it has a penchant for showing a big tease too soon. For 300 hours that's typical, but a week out? Hopefully it's nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 FWIW, that same storm is on the Euro as well. It is very unimpressive, nonetheless, it is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 974 mb Noreaster on the 00z GFS. A radical change in the position of the H from the 18z to the 00z. Its much further west on the OOz which is allowing it to move up the coast. Definitely something to start watching. Especially if the Euro gets its act together a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I almost dont even wanna get invested in this even though it looks like it has the ingredients to be huge. We all know this will fringe us if it's a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Euro and GFS both have our system in sight. The difference between them is the timing between the moisture coming from the southwest and the kicker that is coming from the northwest. The kicker is slower in the GFS which is allowing the trough to tilt more neutral whereas the kicker is faster with the Euro and keeps our trough positively tilted. The GFS scenario allows the L to move up the apps SW to NE. Looks like the euro kick is keeping the system further south and moving more W to E eventually off the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 Happy New Year everyone! Feels weird starting to check models again and it is already January 7th. Not much of a winter thus far but maybe this will be good for a big storm. Most of us are due for one and I'll take the foot plus storm in the next 2 months if that is all we get. However excited for the coming week but it will be nice to get the shovel out maybe? BTW I was out all weekend and took down the Christmas lights and did a lot of yard work so it paid off not having snow on the ground now. Bring it on now that the yard is ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 You just know this isn't going to happen. lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 hours ago, north pgh said: Happy New Year everyone! Feels weird starting to check models again and it is already January 7th. Not much of a winter thus far but maybe this will be good for a big storm. Most of us are due for one and I'll take the foot plus storm in the next 2 months if that is all we get. However excited for the coming week but it will be nice to get the shovel out maybe? BTW I was out all weekend and took down the Christmas lights and did a lot of yard work so it paid off not having snow on the ground now. Bring it on now that the yard is ready Happy 25th anniversary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 Thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening according to SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 15 minutes ago, north pgh said: Thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening according to SPC winds will be screaming overhead at 500mb. 90-100 kts. The chance of that mixing down is probably the reason for the marginal outlook tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 00z Euro is no good for anyone. East Coast included. Big H sitting over New England squashed that storm OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GEFS doesn't look great either. Most members are taking the L off the Carolina coast. Not exactly where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Looks like Virginia gets it again....and no really cold air in sight. Next week looks to be average or slightly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Well, that first suppressed system brought in this current dreadful pattern, maybe the second version can usher in the pattern reset? Progressive, flat flow and southern stream looks shuddered by a strong NS vort. Wouldn't surprise me to see that high pressure drop south as we get closer. Teleconnections pretty marginal. I'll be flying on Sunday so I'm okay with this one missing. Edit: FV3 and CMC are still showing a possible storm solution. Perhaps a big one at that, but until they get support, I won't trust those two alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12z GFS shows a very zonal flow after the exit of the system today and tomorrow. GFS looking like the GEFS from last night. Low goes off the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 FV3 no longer looking great for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 34 minutes ago, Mailman said: FV3 no longer looking great for the weekend. Heh.. I wish the Euro ran at 10:30am and the rest of the models came after.. Many afternoons would have been saved throughout my life if it worked that way.. Case in point to this point it has always had a weaker slide off the coast look vs the other models at one point or another showing a decent hit for the area. Still time for things to change though so the beat goes on. Anyways, how about a guide to winter storms in Pittsburgh courtesy of Marge Simpson: https://s3.amazonaws.com/v.comb.io/7RgYK6uN/85wDMW.mp4?1475737112995 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 20 hours ago, north pgh said: I'd kill for a bullseye like that again.. I remember arguing with a buddy of mine over that storm, he saw that weather report from Joe and thought it meant another 20-26 inches was coming. I couldn't get it through his head that was the totals.. Made me so mad at the time lol We were 13-14 at the time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 11 hours ago, north pgh said: Thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening according to SPC NWS discussion today mentioned possible thunderstorms, and a tornado warning in Mercer already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 It cracks me up how spoiled other forum posters are. They freak out whenever they miss out on a big storm every year. Yet they are probably getting more big storms than their average. Also at this point I'd take a decent 3-5 storm. I cant deal with this rain anymore its depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 That's the euro. I'd take that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Might be the best it's looked for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 If I was a betting man I'd put a lot of money on a fringe job. Still a lot of time with this one but no reason to get too invested with this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Looks like Virginia gets it again....and no really cold air in sight. Next week looks to be average or slightly above.Seems like they've been really hitting the jackpot with storms in recent years. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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