Rd9108 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 28 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: NWS doesn't seem to be buying any of it right now. Just slight chances of snow showers. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Yet look at the gefs, nam, cmc and somewhat the euro and it shows atleast a possible coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Better than 62 and shorts like a few years ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 NAMs back to showing backend snow and a decent amount. Let's see if there's any precip once the temps crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: NAMs back to showing backend snow and a decent amount. Let's see if there's any precip once the temps crash. Yeah, hopefully what falls as snow will be dynamic enough, before the precip shuts down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 NAMs look decent, HRRR (00z run - 36hr) has almost no moisture hanging out on the backside. Hoping to get NAMed tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: NAMs look decent, HRRR (00z run - 36hr) has almost no moisture hanging out on the backside. Hoping to get NAMed tomorrow night. Also caught a glimpse of the 18Z Euro hourly model ( i didn't even know this existed). It looks very similar to the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I'm thinking the NAM will be wrong. It has the changeover faster and the band further west. HRRR has more so the mountains to the east receiving that same band. I will say that we have a decent shot at atleast having snow on the ground for christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 51 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I'm thinking the NAM will be wrong. It has the changeover faster and the band further west. HRRR has more so the mountains to the east receiving that same band. I will say that we have a decent shot at atleast having snow on the ground for christmas. I agree but the good news is the little system moving through on Sunday is getting a little stronger each run on the Canadian. In the latest 12Z run it has one inch of snow in Northern Allegheny Co. and 1/2 or so south. It won't be snowing Christmas eve but there is a better chance we will have snow on the ground. Even if it is an inch or less it will be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I'd say the fact that the gefs shows this that we may see some snow Christmas eve morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Euro still showing a little something for Christmas Day evening. New Years Eve is white on the Euro, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Mangled wet flakes splattering on the windshield. Slow changeover beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 22, 2018 Author Share Posted December 22, 2018 OZ Nam moves 2nd storm east and gives us practically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 55 minutes ago, north pgh said: OZ Nam moves 2nd storm east and gives us practically nothing. Saw that. Hopefully it's just a blip and we get a different solution tomorrow. Is an inch on Christmas too much to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Had a little nice surprise and woke up to an Inch or so this morning-doubt it will stick around til Tuesday tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stjbeautifulday Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Very very light snow falling in Moon and just a very light dusting. Mostly on roofs and trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Not looking good for a white christmas on the NAM. Oh well, I'm sure it will be showing in late April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Had a little nice surprise and woke up to an Inch or so this morning-doubt it will stick around til Tuesday tho...You made a wise choice getting out of Bethel Park to experience some real snow. LolSent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Looking at the short range models we will as atleast have flakes flying in the air tomorrow. Maybe a coating on the ground but it doesnt look like much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Not much to root for right now ( steeler season mistake after mistake after mistake...) However the yearly precip record will probably be broken this week...yaaa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Not much to root for right now ( steeler season mistake after mistake after mistake...) However the yearly precip record will probably be broken this week...yaaa Freaking Smith Shuster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 12 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: Not much to root for right now ( steeler season mistake after mistake after mistake...) However the yearly precip record will probably be broken this week...yaaa Watch pitt basketball. They have a young team that will lose a bunch of ACC games, but they are exciting and have some really good freshman talent at guard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 24, 2018 Author Share Posted December 24, 2018 With the year winding down I am going to give my grades for the season weather wise for me. Winter 2018 B- A decent amount of snow. Some good storms but still lacking the big one. Spring 2018 D. We seemed to skip spring. A lot of rain, cool not many storms. Summer 2018 B. We had a lot of thunderstorms, many severe but a majority seemed to miss my area. Somewhat hot but too much rain. Fall 2018. C- Mostly just rainy and blah. Not many storms or snow. Winter 2018-19. Incomplete. Let’s hope for a stormy and snowy new year. Just one 12+ snow is all I ask. Merry Christmas my friends and keep tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 @north pgh Fair grades. Rain was definitely the story this year. Also can’t believe it will be 25 years since the 1/4/94 snowstorm. Just shows how rare a track that is for Miller A’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Merry Christmas and May Snow come our way for the new year! Without the warm Tongue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 [mention=337]north pgh[/mention] Fair grades. Rain was definitely the story this year. Also can’t believe it will be 25 years since the 1/4/94 snowstorm. Just shows how rare a track that is for Miller A’s. My favorite storm of all time. I couldn't have been in a better spot for that storm in Westmoreland County. Picked up 27 inches in one day and most of it fell during the day. I doubt I'll ever be lucky enough to see anything like that one again.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Don't know that there's much promising in the near future. Seems we are stuck with a transient block that only appears in minuscule waves, and there's no real cold to be found yet. A couple waves and/or clippers over the next couple weeks, but the models can't sort them out just yet as to when and how many. I think people are holding out hope for later in January. The long-term variability has me uncertain, but traditional El Nino climate would indicate back-loaded winters are more typical, with February perhaps being the best month for snow chances in the East. Meanwhile, the MJO appears to be heading into an extremely amplified Phase 6, which correlates to warmth all over the CONUS. It literally goes off-the-charts according to the current GEFS mean. If it can maintain that momentum in Phase 7, 8, and perhaps 1, that might be a good thing (or too much of one). Cold and dry, warm and wet are - for now - the only reliable metrics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 I dont even want to use the banter section, but this winter is off to a terrible start. There's supposed to be a polar vortex split but who knows if it even splits the right way. It's still early but I'd rather have a snowy December than a snowy March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I dont even want to use the banter section, but this winter is off to a terrible start. There's supposed to be a polar vortex split but who knows if it even splits the right way. It's still early but I'd rather have a snowy December than a snowy March. I agree with you on that. For many places in the East, December is not a snowy month on average. Pittsburgh is a tad different, probably due to lake effect. Long-term means indicate December is more often a snowier month than March in these parts (though not by much), but including this year, 4 of the last 5 winters will have been below normal snowfall in December. Last year we managed 13" in December. 2014/15 and 2015/16 were basically a trace, and 16/17 was 6" total. This year obviously isn't much. Average over thirty years to 2018 being 8.2 inches. I was attempting to see if there was a correlation between a snowy November and a dry December, but it doesn't appear the case (at least not for Pittsburgh). 4 of the last 6 Novembers have been at or above average for monthly snow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: I dont even want to use the banter section, but this winter is off to a terrible start. There's supposed to be a polar vortex split but who knows if it even splits the right way. It's still early but I'd rather have a snowy December than a snowy March. I think reading all the winter outlooks from respected Mets in the other sub forums really had me expecting a possibility of an epic winter. I know it’s early and could still happen but man I cannot remember such a boring tracking stretch in a long time. Since the miss to our south in the beginning of December there hasn’t been a legit threat and that looks to continue for the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 In the wake of the most recent rainfall (0.33"), year-to-date precipitation in Pittsburgh stands at 57.08". That ranks as the second highest annual figure on record. The record is 57.41", which was established in 2004. One more system is likely to impact Pittsburgh before 2018 concludes. At present, a moderate rainfall appears likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the recent guidance, the implied probabilities are as follows: No precipitation: 3% Measurable precipitation: 97% 0.25" or more: 88% 0.50" or more: 69% 0.75" or more: 42% 1.00" or more: 18% New annual record (0.34" or more): 82% Therefore, at least at this point in time, it appears very likely that Pittsburgh will set a new annual precipitation record. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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