✨Pittsburgh PA ❄ Winter 2018-2019

[jwilson]

2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Irregardless of snow accumulations, with falling temperatures and periodic snow showers tomorrow should prove to look and feel pretty winter like. To bad this whole setup wasn't 3-4 weeks later when climo would be significantly more favorable although I think we will have several chances to roll the dice in the coming months.

If I can make an analogous comparison to sports, I think this winter we will have a very solid roster (various indices and El-nino should be favorable) so I foresee hitting average snowfall for the year as the floor of expectations, but with some luck, I think our odds at seeing a couple larger snowfalls this winter is also on the table more so than normal. Not saying expect 12+ every other week, but the ever elusive 6in or greater storm should be statistically more attainable.

My only concern is the inevitable warm-up, especially with the cold this early.  I haven't looked at any long-range predictions, so maybe it never becomes an extended warm period, but if there's one thing I loathe, it's a warm December.  If it's transient between cold shots, that certainly bodes better for snow chances.  Any snow in November is a bonus.

Looking back, though, it appears Pittsburgh got 32.3" of snow in November of 1950.  That must have been an interesting month.

(30-year mean being 2.1")

[Burghblizz]

3 hours ago, jwilson said:

My only concern is the inevitable warm-up, especially with the cold this early.  I haven't looked at any long-range predictions, so maybe it never becomes an extended warm period, but if there's one thing I loathe, it's a warm December.  If it's transient between cold shots, that certainly bodes better for snow chances.  Any snow in November is a bonus.

Looking back, though, it appears Pittsburgh got 32.3" of snow in November of 1950.  That must have been an interesting month.

(30-year mean being 2.1")

Mostly from one storm. A retrograding BOMB up the spine of the apps and through Ohio....but so potent that there were single digit temps with southerly winds. 

[meatwad]

[MikeB_01]

If verified, would be some significant icing to occur 15th into 16th. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

15 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

Mostly from one storm. A retrograding BOMB up the spine of the apps and through Ohio....but so potent that there were single digit temps with southerly winds. 

Ahh the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950, I remember reading about that storm. Pretty amazing setup that's for sure... If only I had a DeLorean I'd love to take a "field trip" to some of these blockbusters of the past and witness them first hand.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

18 hours ago, jwilson said:

My only concern is the inevitable warm-up, especially with the cold this early.  I haven't looked at any long-range predictions, so maybe it never becomes an extended warm period, but if there's one thing I loathe, it's a warm December.  If it's transient between cold shots, that certainly bodes better for snow chances.  Any snow in November is a bonus.

Looking back, though, it appears Pittsburgh got 32.3" of snow in November of 1950.  That must have been an interesting month.

(30-year mean being 2.1")

Most of the more reliable forecasts I have seen have called for a brief relaxation in January before things really get going for the last 6 weeks or so of Winter. We probably see some relaxation towards Thanksgiving, but might be poised for a reload as December starts, which would be decent timing. I agree though, I'm always concerned we waste a great pattern during a hostile climo period. Our average high is still in the 50s this time of year, so really takes some anomalously cold air to maintain any kind of cold streak, let alone if you want to see frozen during the daylight hours.

[MikeB_01]

Little dicey Thursday afternoon.

[MikeB_01]

The ULL sure is pretty. The position of the HP over NE has a lot to do with how this scenario plays out.  If it shifts a little farther to the west, I believe the surge of warm air would be less than currently depicted. This is a close one. Could easily be a bust. Also could bring several inches of snow 

 

[MikeB_01]

Ice totals look impressive on some recent NAM runs

[jwilson]

I won't hold out much hope here for significant snow in mid-November.  The ice possibility is a concern.  If the NAO tanks like it appears is possible, maybe we have the necessary blocking to get a decent snowfall chance.  I can't remember the last time we've had a truly sustained -NAO, however.

[stjbeautifulday]

So looks like rain for us?

[RitualOfTheTrout]

11 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Ice totals look impressive on some recent NAM runs

I'm having a hard time buying that solution, for one I think at best we will hover right around the freezing mark, if not a few degrees over at the surface, and 2nd getting significant ice accretion during the day a peak climo can be difficult let alone in early mid November. I'm not dismissing the possibility of a light glaze, but would lean more towards what the GFS is selling in terms of amounts keeping in mind even the smallest ice build up can cause problems. I'm thinking we see more of our typical slop storm p-types, snow quickly flips to sleet with a brief period of freezing rain, then we just have a mix of cold rain / sleet / mangled flake until we flip back to all snow towards the end.

If that high pressure can stick further west as you mentioned, maybe we get a prolonged period of cool dry air funneling in and provide a surprise. Definitely think we have a good shot at some snow on the ground by Friday morning though.

[MikeB_01]

53 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I'm having a hard time buying that solution, for one I think at best we will hover right around the freezing mark, if not a few degrees over at the surface, and 2nd getting significant ice accretion during the day a peak climo can be difficult let alone in early mid November. I'm not dismissing the possibility of a light glaze, but would lean more towards what the GFS is selling in terms of amounts keeping in mind even the smallest ice build up can cause problems. I'm thinking we see more of our typical slop storm p-types, snow quickly flips to sleet with a brief period of freezing rain, then we just have a mix of cold rain / sleet / mangled flake until we flip back to all snow towards the end.

If that high pressure can stick further west as you mentioned, maybe we get a prolonged period of cool dry air funneling in and provide a surprise. Definitely think we have a good shot at some snow on the ground by Friday morning though.

Good call on the with the precip falling during the day. November, like March, is just hard to get snow/ice to fall and stick during the day. I'm not buying that amount of ice either.

FWIW, last nights Euro never has a complete change over to rain for AC. Points south show a change to rain and then quickly back to mix/snow. 

The general idea here is that we are close. Depending on a few varying conditions, we could see lots of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Monitoring the temps at the ground Thursday morning and how the models are initializing will help with nowcasting. Just need to watch and hope for a little surprise.

[MikeB_01]

WWA posted to the south and west. Probably not too long before we get one too. 

WSW posted for Central PA

[MikeB_01]

KPIT discussion  from this morning

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All eyes will be on the storm system moving through the
Tennessee Valley into the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic
Wednesday night into Thursday. Two areas of sfc low pressure
will develop in response to the upper level low, the weaker one
over central Kentucky and the stronger one off the Atlantic
coast. They will slowly track northeast well ahead of the
upper level low pressure, which will finally reach the area
late Thursday night before swiftly exiting into the northeast
Friday.

Models are in general agreement on the timing and evolution of
precipitation areas. Precip will reach our southern zones mid-
Thursday morning and spread northward through the day. It will
be reinvigorated late Thursday night into Friday morning with
the passage of the upper level low to our south. As the low
exits, dry air and subsidence will begin, though NW flow will
allow for lake enhanced snow showers throughout the day.

The biggest uncertainty is the temperature profile both at the
sfc and aloft, which will greatly dictate precip type. Latest
model guidance and soundings show a slug of above freezing
850mb temps moving northward ahead of the upper level low at the
onset of the event, putting the onus on sfc temps to remain
at/below freezing to create any wintry mix. Sleet/freezing rain
is anticipated at the onset of this event, but these temps plus
daytime heating will change precip to rain for most areas and
limit wintry accumulations during the daytime. Though looking
much less likely...there remains a very small risk for a
prolonged freezing rain and/or sleet event if sfc temps are
slow to warm above freezing due to reinforcing cold air from the
east. Will keep watch in effect and hold off advisory issuance
for daytime crew who will get final look at model changes ahead
of event start time.

[Burghblizz]

12Z GFS looks a touch snowier in western Pa for overnight Thurs

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Good call on the with the precip falling during the day. November, like March, is just hard to get snow/ice to fall and stick during the day. I'm not buying that amount of ice either.

FWIW, last nights Euro never has a complete change over to rain for AC. Points south show a change to rain and then quickly back to mix/snow. 

The general idea here is that we are close. Depending on a few varying conditions, we could see lots of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Monitoring the temps at the ground Thursday morning and how the models are initializing will help with nowcasting. Just need to watch and hope for a little surprise.

I remember hearing the Euro will start being run for 06z and 18z too, has that started yet?

Should be fun to watch unfold. Get ready for training camp. :)

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

12Z GFS looks a touch snowier in western Pa for overnight Thurs

That's where I'm putting my marbles, thinking we might be able to get enough to coat the grass, then probably some LES Friday morning. Should be a good look and feel preview for winter.

[OutnOakmont]

Just drove back in to Pittsburgh from Southpointe in Washington county. All of 79 that I was on was being pre-treated! 

[meatwad]

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
247 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ013-020-021-029-031-073>076-
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>511-150400-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0023.181115T0800Z-181116T0000Z/
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Lawrence-Beaver-Allegheny-
Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-
Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-
Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Preston-
Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton,
Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz,
Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry,
St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, New Castle, Ellwood City,
Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area,
Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg,
New Kensington, Ligonier, Donegal, Uniontown, Champion, Ohiopyle,
Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling, Moundsville,
New Martinsville, Fairmont, Morgantown, Coopers Rock, Kingwood,
and Bruceton Mills
247 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Wintry mix expected. Expect total wet snow accumulation
  of up to 2 inches and ice accumulation up to one-tenth inch.

* WHERE...western Pennsylvania, east-central Ohio and northern
  West Virginia, including the northern panhandle.

* WHEN...Snow will begin after 3 am and will peak between 5-8 am
  before changing to sleet and freezing rain during the morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There remains considerable uncertainty in
  the expected precipitation type. If warm air is not as strong as
  expected, precipitation could remain as snow with much higher
  amounts. Ice and wet snow will result in difficult travel
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibility, and use caution while driving.
Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the
NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh

&&

$$

 

[Burghblizz]

Interesting that they feel there is some upside to early tommorow as well. I was thinking it’s the period slightly beyond that (thurs night) that looked a little better.

[MikeB_01]

Euro went pretty much all snow at 12z. The 850 Temps never go above freezing during the precip = all snow

[jwilson]

3 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Euro went pretty much all snow at 12z. The 850 Temps never go above freezing during the precip = all snow

 

Even if that holds true, I think ratios would be quite low (probably 6:1 or 8:1) give the conditions.  Still, a 3-6 event would be icing on November 15th.

[Rd9108]

As usual in the battle zone. Gonna be staring at the rain/snow line all day. Doesn't matter its November so any snow is welcomed. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

6 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

Interesting that they feel there is some upside to early tommorow as well. I was thinking it’s the period slightly beyond that (thurs night) that looked a little better.

Yeah, even as of now all options are on the table:

In either case, potential impacts seem sufficient for headlines,
and all zones previously in a watch have been upgraded to Winter
Storm Warnings, while the remainder of the forecast area is
under a Winter Weather Advisory. It is unsatisfying to say, but
the reality of this event is that the current forecast data
support a range of outcomes from mainly sleet and rain to a
widespread ice event to considerable heavy, wet snow.

[north pgh]

This was one of my most memorable storms in November. I wasn't sure of the date and I looked it up and found it in the archives. Almost 38 years to the day. I remember going to college downtown and it took me 3 hours to get home from Allegheny Center to Ross Twp in my car. I was lucky because I normally took the bus and overslept that day. The bus never showed up.

 

https://www.newspapers.com/image/88794636/?terms=pittsburgh%2Bpost-gazette

[MikeB_01]

interesting nowcasting note. If you are looking at the runs of the HRRR, the way it is initializing is not reflecting the snow/mix line and how far south it is. Snow is falling farther south than the HRRR is seeing. Something to keep watching

[blackngoldrules]

My NWS forecast is getting bleaker and bleaker every time I check it. Basically calls for slop and less than an inch of snow. Been through this before. At least it's only November although I'm sure we'll have plenty more of these.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Well saw mainly rain on the drive into work, which was alright I guess, made it in without trouble. Temperature fluctuated between 31-35 per car thermometer, and definitely a glaze of ice on trees in the pockets that were subfreezing.

My guess is we probably aren't going to see a surprise snowfall out of this one, even when heavier precip rates set in it probably won't be enough to wetbulb and overcome the warmth in the upper levels. The warm tongue is almost always under estimated on models, I've learned to accept that with all the heartache from when I was a kid seeing sleet overtake the snow hours before it was forecast to do so. Once in a while we get lucky and have the cold hold on longer, or in cases of Miller Bs the transfer happens just right, it's all a part of the chase I guess.

[cwc]

rain

when in doubt, climo wins out

I think we are up to 25" of fantasy snow so far this year