north pgh Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Are we ready for a new thread? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 I hope you don't mind me starting one. Every year the anticipation of the big snow begins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 I'm ready for a fresh round of disappointments. Maybe first flakes this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Looks like our first shot at some flakes Saturday night. This trough is progged to cross our region later Sat afternoon/night with rain showers expected. The rain should mix with and change to snow in cold advection after FROPA. Some lake and terrain enhancement is expected in NW flow, and some minor accumulation is possible N of I 80. A better chance of accumulation is expected especially in the higher terrain of WV and MD, though the best moisture is progged below the dendritic growth layer. This should keep potential snowfall rates limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Not really sure how this one works out like this. Nov 3-16 looks below average but the month overall looks to be warm. Must be a hell of a second-half heat wave coming in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 just for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Just reading various long range forecasts for this Winter leaves one leaning towards optimism. Looking at the upcoming pattern make me wish it was 4 weeks later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted October 26, 2018 Author Share Posted October 26, 2018 Snow Squall warnings just like Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. This will be another thing for us to track this winter. I like it and I think it is needed. Thoughts? https://www.facebook.com/NWSPittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 18 minutes ago, north pgh said: Snow Squall warnings just like Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. This will be another thing for us to track this winter. I like it and I think it is needed. Thoughts? https://www.facebook.com/NWSPittsburgh I'm sure it will be a valuable inclusion to their warning suite. I only wonder about effectiveness. How long are the lead times? Perhaps for truckers this will work - assuming they monitor weather conditions frequently - but how many motorists pay close attention to the weather when and while they are traveling? Locals know the weather and what to expect. Those out of familiar terrain may not and may not think to keep updated constantly. Short-lived warnings like this need rapid and widespread dissemination. I do hope it helps, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted October 29, 2018 Author Share Posted October 29, 2018 I don't know how much it helps the public but it will be good for our forum for short term events. When we always complain that we always get nickel and dime snows it will be almost like a severe thunderstorm warning in summer. Better than a special weather statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Whoa...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Congrats Western PA on the 18z GFS. Storm signal is there for something in the 14th-15th time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnswahoo Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 I just went to the GFS to see about weather for next week. It still have Pittsburgh in the zone for some snow but greatly reduced, 3-5 with most of it melting because the ground is relatively warm. Regardless, it snow and I'm happy to just follow the signal of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 On 11/5/2018 at 5:44 PM, Newman said: Congrats Western PA on the 18z GFS. Storm signal is there for something in the 14th-15th time frame. Definitely our first shot at some accumulating snow this season Monday night into Tuesday, although 15 inches is probably a bit overdone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Any snow in November is a bonus. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 Not going to post a map yet as we all know it is way too early but it now looks like we will have a storm on Tuesday. The only issue will be temperatures and whether we get rain or snow. Time to start checking models again. Good grief 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Nothing like an early-season GFS/Euro battle for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stjbeautifulday Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 I keep looking here to see if anyone is chattering about Tuesday and you guys are all quiet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 I keep looking here to see if anyone is chattering about Tuesday and you guys are all quiet! I think everyone is trying to contain their excitement. All of the winter weather Wienies are trying to avoid early season disappointment. I haven’t looked at the 12z Euro yet. Any shift??. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 4 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: I think everyone is trying to contain their excitement. All of the winter weather Wienies are trying to avoid early season disappointment. I haven’t looked at the 12z Euro yet. Any shift?? . Haven’t been following the Euro to close but still looked west and warmish to me. Seems the GFS and it’s FV3 are inching closer to the Euro but we’d probably still get some accumulations. Maybe the 2 camps meet in the middle. Temps are marginal and it’s still early Nov so I’m skeptical of more than an inch or so right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Haven’t been following the Euro to close but still looked west and warmish to me. Seems the GFS and it’s FV3 are inching closer to the Euro but we’d probably still get some accumulations. Maybe the 2 camps meet in the middle. Temps are marginal and it’s still early Nov so I’m skeptical of more than an inch or so right now. OZ NAM on board for 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 I finally had a chance to look at the 12z Euro. It did come slightly southeast. However, 00z GFS went too far northwest. Windshield wiper in full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 32 minutes ago, north pgh said: OZ NAM on board for 2-3 inches. NAM has the HP in a better spot. Further southeast allowing for more suppression and cold air to keep our precip all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Final post for the night: Ratios should be low. Very wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 11 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: I finally had a chance to look at the 12z Euro. It did come slightly southeast. However, 00z GFS went too far northwest. Windshield wiper in full effect. GFS caves to Euro.. Shocker lol 12z GFS still to far NW, at least we know now rather than Sunday night. Still some wrap around and some LES on the backend. Had a pretty vigorous snow shower move through this morning,. Put down a quick dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Made a quick trip to my camp in Potter county to winterize it, 2 to 3" of wet snow up there even on the roads...enough that they were plowing at the higher elevations. My deck and shady areas still had snow when I got home. Currently 19 this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Irregardless of snow accumulations, with falling temperatures and periodic snow showers tomorrow should prove to look and feel pretty winter like. To bad this whole setup wasn't 3-4 weeks later when climo would be significantly more favorable although I think we will have several chances to roll the dice in the coming months. If I can make an analogous comparison to sports, I think this winter we will have a very solid roster (various indices and El-nino should be favorable) so I foresee hitting average snowfall for the year as the floor of expectations, but with some luck, I think our odds at seeing a couple larger snowfalls this winter is also on the table more so than normal. Not saying expect 12+ every other week, but the ever elusive 6in or greater storm should be statistically more attainable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 A few flakes and nothing sticks to the ground tonight for the metro. Too warm. Not sure we make it down freezing until tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Nice to be back at it with everyone again. Seems like we’ve had a few great tracks already in November just not quite cold enough. Thursday looks interesting for a brief mix at the start and maybe a change back to snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Irregardless of snow accumulations, with falling temperatures and periodic snow showers tomorrow should prove to look and feel pretty winter like. To bad this whole setup wasn't 3-4 weeks later when climo would be significantly more favorable although I think we will have several chances to roll the dice in the coming months. If I can make an analogous comparison to sports, I think this winter we will have a very solid roster (various indices and El-nino should be favorable) so I foresee hitting average snowfall for the year as the floor of expectations, but with some luck, I think our odds at seeing a couple larger snowfalls this winter is also on the table more so than normal. Not saying expect 12+ every other week, but the ever elusive 6in or greater storm should be statistically more attainable. Good points. This should be an interesting week because temperatures will be up and down and with precipitation falling off and on we may get some surprise changes in precip. I can remember a few storms in the early 80's where rain was mostly forecast and we had a couple of big wet snow events out here in the suburbs. Location and elevations will be key. Plus remember it is only November 12th! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now