TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Oh yea, elevation is king, just wait when you actually get your first true LES blast with a 40-60" event should be anytime now for your area. My biggest events I would be lucky to hit 25-30" your area can double that if the conditions are right. My boss was just talking to me about this...12 feet in one week...it has happened several times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 6 hours ago, (((Will))) said: How long have you lived there? I went through there before. I really liked the area. I was trying to choose between moving there or here on the Keweenaw...ended up choosing here because of the more consistent cold and more rural/isolated nature of the area (biggest city within 150 miles is only Marquette...and it's only 30k.) Hey, Will. Just moved here this summer. There was no way my wife was moving to the UP. The Tug is much closer to our families in PA. I agree that even though very rural, we get too many tourists and "cabin folks" from the nearby cities for my liking. It seems the only way to get away from noise pollution and other people invading space is to live hours and hours away from everything. Most people would call the Tug way too rural to live in. I love all the nature and friendly towns that surround us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 30 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hey, Will. Just moved here this summer. There was no way my wife was moving to the UP. The Tug is much closer to our families in PA. I agree that even though very rural, we get too many tourists and "cabin folks" from the nearby cities for my liking. It seems the only way to get away from noise pollution and other people invading space is to live hours and hours away from everything. Most people would call the Tug way too rural to live in. I love all the nature and friendly towns that surround us here. Redfield has like 500 people living there. Not sure how much more rural you can get than that without living off the grid like the Alaskan Bush people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Redfield has like 500 people living there. Not sure how much more rural you can get than that without living off the grid like the Alaskan Bush people. :) Like I said, there are lots of cabins here. Even though permanent population is low, there are many second homes here. There are people from Syracuse, Rome, Watertown, Utica, etc... that come in and out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 One of these days Will, I am gonna visit the Keweenaw Peninsula in the winter. I'll be so damn overjoyed, I'll have a massive heart attack ---- but I will die HAPPY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Picked up a little over 6" with this last event, over 20" on the year. Perrysburg was the big winner, I went chasing there last night almost 3 feet of new snow the last 2 days. They are over 50" on the year already and it's still November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Picked up a little over 6" with this last event, over 20" on the year. Perrysburg was the big winner, I went chasing there last night almost 3 feet of new snow the last 2 days. They are over 50" on the year already and it's still November. I’m only 6 miles away from you and I’m only at 13.9” on the season... unless we get a solid SW flow event (Dec 2010, Nov 2014) we really seem to get screwed on just about every event. NW flow events are the worst for this area as there’s always a hole from South Buffalo down to near Hamburg and over to South Cheektowaga and Elma. Oh well still will finish November slightly above average but somehow still feels like we got shafted a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Over 35" in Perrysburg south of here. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 29, 2018 Author Share Posted November 29, 2018 9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Picked up a little over 6" with this last event, over 20" on the year. Perrysburg was the big winner, I went chasing there last night almost 3 feet of new snow the last 2 days. They are over 50" on the year already and it's still November. Nice! We have been on the outskirts of the storms and LES the past week or so, all the moisture and 850 flow has been not ideal for my area, but still around 28" for the year so far. Just a matter of time until we get our first real LES blast of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Enjoy up there, Will. Probably only 3-5" accums over this way. Looks very cold and wintry the next 48 hours along the shores of Mother Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 Picked up about 4" overnight, may get another 1-2 today, still need a lot more to even think about firing up the sleds..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Picked up about 4" overnight, may get another 1-2 today, still need a lot more to even think about firing up the sleds..... Pretty much the same here. 4.5-5" fell quickly overnight, with a few more possible today as temps dive to around 11 by this afternoon. There's 2' of snow on the ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Picked up 5" overnight, should get another couple inches as the band swings through this afternoon. Very heavy QPF stuff for lake effect. I took off of work tomorrow to go skiing a few weeks ago. Looks like perfect timing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 hours ago, weatherbo said: Pretty much the same here. 4.5-5" fell quickly overnight, with a few more possible today as temps dive to around 11 by this afternoon. There's 2' of snow on the ground here. Looks good Bo, I only have about 8" otg we lost all of ours from the torch last week, still snowing pretty good with this frontal passage enhancing the LES, but will probably wane as the afternoon progresses and the winds keep veering more NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 hours ago, (((Will))) said: Got about 8-10 inches last night. Not sure how much is on the ground total. Sposed to pick up another 4-9 inches tomorrow, highest around here in Calumet because of the elevation. Keweenaw-Northern Houghton- Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock 326 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Lake Effect Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches expected, with isolated totals of up to 9 inches possible in a narrow band from Freda to Calumet. * WHERE...Keweenaw and Northern Houghton Counties. * WHEN...From 4 AM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday. Congrats man, I have really got to try to visit that place sometime! You'll know I am in town because you will see this old man (me) digging ALL of the snow in Calumet lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Picked up 7.6" storm total for last event, Watertown received 2' of wet LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 26, 2018 Author Share Posted December 26, 2018 You know its been a bad year when our LES thread only has 2 pages worth of posts and its almost January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 23 hours ago, josh_4184 said: You know its been a bad year when our LES thread only has 2 pages worth of posts and its almost January. Despite over 70" of snow so far, there really hasn't been a serious lake event yet this winter... even more so down your way. Something to look forward to MQT: Mon/Tue, troffing will consolidate from Hudson Bay thru the central CONUS. Southern stream shortwave will lift up the front side of the trof toward the Lower Lakes while additional shortwave energy swings thru the Upper Lakes. Result will be broad low pres over the Great Lakes Mon with one center lifting ne to the Lower Lakes with second center moving across the Upper Lakes. Could be some -sn Mon, but the more important aspect will be the much colder air following passage of the latter low. Period of cyclonic low-level flow and sharp caa dropping 850mb temps to at least -20C in the wake of the low will likely spell a period of hvy LES off Lake Superior beginning New Year`s Eve evening or early New Year`s day. Will be quite cold on New Year`s day. High temps will either be in 5 to 10F range for much of the fcst area or will fall into that range during the day, depending on timing of the low pres passage. LES will shift/diminish on Wed as winds back. (APX mentions potential but not excited... they're numb I think ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 27, 2018 Author Share Posted December 27, 2018 32 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Despite over 70" of snow so far, there really hasn't been a serious lake event yet this winter... even more so down your way. Something to look forward to MQT: Mon/Tue, troffing will consolidate from Hudson Bay thru the central CONUS. Southern stream shortwave will lift up the front side of the trof toward the Lower Lakes while additional shortwave energy swings thru the Upper Lakes. Result will be broad low pres over the Great Lakes Mon with one center lifting ne to the Lower Lakes with second center moving across the Upper Lakes. Could be some -sn Mon, but the more important aspect will be the much colder air following passage of the latter low. Period of cyclonic low-level flow and sharp caa dropping 850mb temps to at least -20C in the wake of the low will likely spell a period of hvy LES off Lake Superior beginning New Year`s Eve evening or early New Year`s day. Will be quite cold on New Year`s day. High temps will either be in 5 to 10F range for much of the fcst area or will fall into that range during the day, depending on timing of the low pres passage. LES will shift/diminish on Wed as winds back. (APX mentions potential but not excited... they're numb I think ) Lol yea I saw that in their AFD, I think everyone around my area especially the businesses are more shocked then anything regarding how bad the snowfall has been. I think my biggest event so far has been around 7-8" but max snowdepth has been only around 6" so far this winter which has to be close to record territory. At our current rate we would be lucky to see about 70-80" for the winter which is half of the annual average. I knew the winter would be a challenge as El-Nino's are generally not very good for our Lake Belts but certainly wasn't expecting 30" at this point. Regarding the LES coming up it does look decent but even after that looks dismal, this looks to be more of a glancing blow from some Arctic Air as the it moderates pretty quickly again a few days later, the Pacific zonal flow is just to strong this year not sure how that is going to get beat down by any strong arctic influences for sustained periods. hopefully the strat warming event does something do help dislodge the PV to give us some cold but even then seems pretty skeptic. How are the businesses/residents fairing up in the Yoop so far as I know it hasn't been much better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 25 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Lol yea I saw that in their AFD, I think everyone around my area especially the businesses are more shocked then anything regarding how bad the snowfall has been. I think my biggest event so far has been around 7-8" but max snowdepth has been only around 6" so far this winter which has to be close to record territory. At our current rate we would be lucky to see about 70-80" for the winter which is half of the annual average. I knew the winter would be a challenge as El-Nino's are generally not very good for our Lake Belts but certainly wasn't expecting 30" at this point. Regarding the LES coming up it does look decent but even after that looks dismal, this looks to be more of a glancing blow from some Arctic Air as the it moderates pretty quickly again a few days later, the Pacific zonal flow is just to strong this year not sure how that is going to get beat down by any strong arctic influences for sustained periods. hopefully the strat warming event does something do help dislodge the PV to give us some cold but even then seems pretty skeptic. How are the businesses/residents fairing up in the Yoop so far as I know it hasn't been much better? Probably not a whole lot better. The snow hasn't been deep enough UP wide to support riding, as you know, so businesses are down I'm sure. Locally for me, even with the 2 week stretch of boring, it has looked and felt like winter. Deepest snow has been 2', there's 16" on the ground now with snow falling. I would say I'm in a bit of a bubble and not the greatest to judge how good or bad things are, but I always want more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Similar here on the Tug. I have had 75 inches so far, snow on the ground since the beginning of November, and 12 inches of snow this week. BUT, all these bloody cutters keep knocking our snow down and making it a sloppy and then icy mess. Snowmobiling has had an awful start. Had a maximum depth of about 2 feet....in November. 2 more bloody cutters on the way for the long weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 27, 2018 Author Share Posted December 27, 2018 Im hoping the Ne Years Eve/Day storm stays further SW which seems to be the trend on latest guidance, but the way this year has gone I have low expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Looking like we may start seeing some true arctic air coming down towards later Jan, models now starting to show this on long range. Granted its still a volatile pattern but I think we will finally see some chances at some true LES outbreaks, albeit a little late but might cash in a little hopefully. I have been watching desperate sledders running on mud on the trails this past week around my area, a very sad sight to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 Getting our first LES event since November, hard to believe its been that long. Anyway picked up several inches last night and a few more this morning/afternoon already. Someone around my area will see double digits before Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 Have not had much to talk about this winter for the northwoods but looks like this week through next week will resemble a more typical winter. Models spitting out some pretty outrages snow totals for the next 10 days from both synoptic and LES. This weekend looks to be a decent outbreak which is coming at the best time considering the Ice cover is looming over our heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 A really lame lake effect season here. It's all been south of me on NW flow. Areas down there are well over 100-125" on the year. Looks to get going with the clipper train next few weeks, Erie will likely be frozen in 1-2 weeks with this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 My back hurts just looking at pics of your place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, (((Will))) said: I like how that tree still has leaves hanging on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 Pretty Strong LES parameters for NNW flow belts in NWL, I bet someone see's well over a foot from this. We don't often get these good of parameters for LES around here only a couple times a year. To bad the 850's are NNW and not NW for my area. Quote Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow accumulations and headlines as lake effect snow machine kicks into high gear. Lead short-wave trough slides east of the region this morning with a brief interlude of subsidence/drier air/lowering inversion heights and downtick in lake induced snows this morning. Thus a relatively quiet start to the day. But...things will go downhill quickly as we get into the afternoon and particularly tonight. Upstream short-wave trough/surface reflection and sharp arctic boundary will slide through the region through the afternoon/early evening with arctic air then collapsing into northern Michigan tonight. As typically the case, we will probably have a decent burst of lake enhanced/synoptic snowfall along the sharp boundary as it moves through, which will bring nearly all areas some snowfall, although better snow accumulations will be across parts of eastern Michigan as well as northwest lower Michigan with enhancement off the lakes and terrain boost. Behind the front, lake effect conditions improve dramatically as temperatures plunge/inversion heights are nearly erased and lake-H8 delta Ts climb well into the 20s. Bufkit forecast soundings show equilibrium levels up over 12K feet and lake induced CAPE values climbing up over 750 J/KG as we go through the night, all supportive of a period of heavy lake effect snow later this evening and overnight. Right now it appears that areas right around Grand Traverse Bay get the best synoptic/lake effect accumulations through tonight as winds veer sharply NNW behind the front. Lighter snow accumulations elsewhere, although with the anticipated burst of snow along the front and gusty winds/lake effect that follows, many areas will end up with impactful winter weather. As far as headlines are concerned, Snow accumulations will likely flirt with warning criteria across Leelanau/Benzie and Grand Traverse counties with the combination of snowfall this afternoon and lake effect focusing into that area tonight. Combined with gusty winds/blowing snow developing later tonight, plan on upgrading those counties to a warning. Will keep the rest of the already issued advisories intact and add a few more counties into the mix, again for the combination of snow showers/gusty winds and blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Finally a good event for my location before the lake freezes. I’m right around that 18-24” line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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