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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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All of the steering currents above 10k ft are all a strong NW to SE flow, i.e. from N. Dakota right over Ohio to NC, so how are the models bringing this low from SW to NE (almost at a 90 degree angle) right over Ohio?  Normally I'd be afraid of it going from Colorado across the TN valley to NC and a whiff of pixie dust N of the Ohio river.  :blink:

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I'd be concerned about the north/west trends, especially for areas along I-70, which are now literally on the line.  Another 50-100 miles north and that zone misses out almost completely.  Same story as always, really.  It's still early, so time to watch it, but it already seems like a classic screw job taking shape. 

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29 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

I'd be concerned about the north/west trends, especially for areas along I-70, which are now literally on the line.  Another 50-100 miles north and that zone misses out almost completely.  Same story as always, really.  It's still early, so time to watch it, but it already seems like a classic screw job taking shape. 

yea, definitely a concern.... I feel like ugly things might happen today trend-wise, or maybe it was bad shrimp last night.      Still have to realize that with such a stout high to the north and a relatively fast flow with a storm on a pos. tilted trough, this definitely could go through a cycle on the models where they overamp it, and then as we close into 72 hours or so, weaken it back to earlier runs as a bit weaker and more progressive. 

The point is you could make a strong meterological argument either way.   But yea, today I'm fearing the nw bump.   

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12 minutes ago, buckeye said:

yea, definitely a concern.... I feel like ugly things might happen today trend-wise, or maybe it was bad shrimp last night.      Still have to realize that with such a stout high to the north and a relatively fast flow with a storm on a pos. tilted trough, this definitely could go through a cycle on the models where they overamp it, and then as we close into 72 hours or so, weaken it back to earlier runs as a bit weaker and more progressive. 

The point is you could make a strong meterological argument either way.   But yea, today I'm fearing the nw bump.   

I'm getting that deja vu all over again feeling. 

The weenie side of me is all :mapsnow:

The rational side of me knows that when we're riding the line at this point, a screw job could be imminent...

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Just now, vespasian70 said:

Initially I thought this GFS run would be better (i.e. south), but it cuts harder into Pa.

i think the best news we can take is it wasn't a major bump north, but it was north.   Still time and reason, (not wishcasting), to have this go back to earlier further south adjustments.   I've seen this before around this time frame where the models start amping only to dial back again and quite honestly it usually happens with our big storms.     It's intersting, (knock on wood), we haven't seen any really big north jogs as in taking us completely out of the game, (in terms of primarily rain).   That tells me there is a ceiling for how far north and strong this can get... I would bet we've seen that ceiling, (granted verification may end up being the ceiling).

here's to staying positive....:beer: I'm gonna need a few.

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Just now, buckeye said:

It's intersting, (knock on wood), we haven't seen any really big north jogs as in taking us completely out of the game, (in terms of primarily rain).  

If it's going to happen it will be later today or tomorrow. If we hold serve or tick south between now and Weds night's runs - game on. I think that Thurs/Fri event is the wild card setting the stage.

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8 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

It's not really a terrible track, it's just seems to be pulling in a bit more warm air this run.

We would still get good snow with this track... but we would also get a period Of ice... let's just go with all snow..

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5 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

If it's going to happen it will be later today or tomorrow. If we hold serve or tick south between now and Weds night's runs - game on. I think that Thurs/Fri event is the wild card setting the stage.

I always felt, and still do, that Wednesdays 12z runs should give us a good idea.   We'll see if the nw trend is a collective bump or real by then.   

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3 minutes ago, Steve said:

We would still get good snow with this track... but we would also get a period Of ice... let's just go with all snow..

Luckily we have a ways to go. If that ice signal continues for us I'm rooting for an ORD to DTW special. I'll take the rain and flash freeze instead.

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Just now, vespasian70 said:

Luckily we have a ways to go. If that ice signal continues for us I'm rooting for an ORD to DTW special. I'll take the rain and flash freeze instead.

AMEN....  I'll give it to them with a ribbon.  Misery =  icestorm power outtages with brutal cold incoming.

Not sure if the TT maps are screwy but the 12zGEM actually improved with the snowfall for us from 00z.

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Just now, vespasian70 said:

Luckily we have a ways to go. If that ice signal continues for us I'm rooting for an ORD to DTW special. I'll take the rain and flash freeze instead.

You bring tears to my eyes. FWIW, if we here in northern IL get missed to the south, then I hope you get absolutely blasted.

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

AMEN....  I'll give it to them with a ribbon.  Misery =  icestorm power outtages with brutal cold incoming.

Not sure if the TT maps are screwy but the 12zGEM actually improved with the snowfall for us from 00z.

The good news is very VERY rarely do those icestorm model solutions ever verify in our area.

And the GEM is actually nice.  The temps just absolutely crash while heavy qpf is still around and we get a nice thumping.

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