dilly84 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Looks like itd be a full on blizzard for i70 on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro verbatim, that is possibly the most disruptive storm in Ohio since 1978. Only thing is it's a weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Can anyone post the euro snowfall total map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Buckeye should've waited up for the Euro. Epic run for the OH crew. My concern is the ice potential just south of the heavy snow, we always seem to ride it here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Aallen said: Can anyone post the euro snowfall total map? Gives you nearly a foot. But, it's a ways out. The models will bounce this all around over the next couple of days and settle down Thursday/Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, vespasian70 said: Gives you nearly a foot. But, it's a ways out. The models will bounce this all around over the next couple of days and settle down Thursday/Friday. Fingers crossed!! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 FV3 love. Of course we all know this about the time frame the models start to crap out on us OH folks. lol Nice weather porn all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 All of the steering currents above 10k ft are all a strong NW to SE flow, i.e. from N. Dakota right over Ohio to NC, so how are the models bringing this low from SW to NE (almost at a 90 degree angle) right over Ohio? Normally I'd be afraid of it going from Colorado across the TN valley to NC and a whiff of pixie dust N of the Ohio river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'd be concerned about the north/west trends, especially for areas along I-70, which are now literally on the line. Another 50-100 miles north and that zone misses out almost completely. Same story as always, really. It's still early, so time to watch it, but it already seems like a classic screw job taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 29 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: I'd be concerned about the north/west trends, especially for areas along I-70, which are now literally on the line. Another 50-100 miles north and that zone misses out almost completely. Same story as always, really. It's still early, so time to watch it, but it already seems like a classic screw job taking shape. yea, definitely a concern.... I feel like ugly things might happen today trend-wise, or maybe it was bad shrimp last night. Still have to realize that with such a stout high to the north and a relatively fast flow with a storm on a pos. tilted trough, this definitely could go through a cycle on the models where they overamp it, and then as we close into 72 hours or so, weaken it back to earlier runs as a bit weaker and more progressive. The point is you could make a strong meterological argument either way. But yea, today I'm fearing the nw bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherzen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, buckeye said: yea, definitely a concern.... I feel like ugly things might happen today trend-wise, or maybe it was bad shrimp last night. Still have to realize that with such a stout high to the north and a relatively fast flow with a storm on a pos. tilted trough, this definitely could go through a cycle on the models where they overamp it, and then as we close into 72 hours or so, weaken it back to earlier runs as a bit weaker and more progressive. The point is you could make a strong meterological argument either way. But yea, today I'm fearing the nw bump. I'm getting that deja vu all over again feeling. The weenie side of me is all The rational side of me knows that when we're riding the line at this point, a screw job could be imminent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Another bump north on the 12Z GFS. We're now in the icestorm portion of the storm with plenty of time for further trends north. As I said yesterday, I've seen this story a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 According to the other thread the 12Z GFS went South a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Initially I thought this GFS run would be better (i.e. south), but it cuts harder into Pa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Definitely a NW trend today. GFS, ICON both NW to start the day. But it's only Tuesday. I'm actually not too concerned cause I can see it eventually trending back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Does look like we are in the ice storm as of now.. I hope this thing quits going north!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 It's not really a terrible track, it's just seems to be pulling in a bit more warm air this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I should reiterate, the gfs itself is a bit south but it's much more ramped up bringing in more warm air resulting in an ice storm. Could be a blip or a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, vespasian70 said: Initially I thought this GFS run would be better (i.e. south), but it cuts harder into Pa. i think the best news we can take is it wasn't a major bump north, but it was north. Still time and reason, (not wishcasting), to have this go back to earlier further south adjustments. I've seen this before around this time frame where the models start amping only to dial back again and quite honestly it usually happens with our big storms. It's intersting, (knock on wood), we haven't seen any really big north jogs as in taking us completely out of the game, (in terms of primarily rain). That tells me there is a ceiling for how far north and strong this can get... I would bet we've seen that ceiling, (granted verification may end up being the ceiling). here's to staying positive.... I'm gonna need a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Definitely a NW trend today. GFS, ICON both NW to start the day. But it's only Tuesday. I'm actually not too concerned cause I can see it eventually trending back south. Not a good 12z GFS run if you live along Ice-70. Congrats Mansfield! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, vespasian70 said: Not a good 12z GFS run if you live along Ice-70. Congrats Mansfield! Lights out for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: It's intersting, (knock on wood), we haven't seen any really big north jogs as in taking us completely out of the game, (in terms of primarily rain). If it's going to happen it will be later today or tomorrow. If we hold serve or tick south between now and Weds night's runs - game on. I think that Thurs/Fri event is the wild card setting the stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, JayPSU said: It's not really a terrible track, it's just seems to be pulling in a bit more warm air this run. We would still get good snow with this track... but we would also get a period Of ice... let's just go with all snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: If it's going to happen it will be later today or tomorrow. If we hold serve or tick south between now and Weds night's runs - game on. I think that Thurs/Fri event is the wild card setting the stage. I always felt, and still do, that Wednesdays 12z runs should give us a good idea. We'll see if the nw trend is a collective bump or real by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Steve said: We would still get good snow with this track... but we would also get a period Of ice... let's just go with all snow.. Luckily we have a ways to go. If that ice signal continues for us I'm rooting for an ORD to DTW special. I'll take the rain and flash freeze instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, vespasian70 said: Luckily we have a ways to go. If that ice signal continues for us I'm rooting for an ORD to DTW special. I'll take the rain and flash freeze instead. AMEN.... I'll give it to them with a ribbon. Misery = icestorm power outtages with brutal cold incoming. Not sure if the TT maps are screwy but the 12zGEM actually improved with the snowfall for us from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, vespasian70 said: Luckily we have a ways to go. If that ice signal continues for us I'm rooting for an ORD to DTW special. I'll take the rain and flash freeze instead. You bring tears to my eyes. FWIW, if we here in northern IL get missed to the south, then I hope you get absolutely blasted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Maybe luck is on our side this time.. we went from 3 pages to 10 pages in a week!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Steve said: Maybe luck is on our side this time.. we went from 3 pages to 10 pages in a week!! yea hopefully we have more than a backside crusty coating to show for it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: AMEN.... I'll give it to them with a ribbon. Misery = icestorm power outtages with brutal cold incoming. Not sure if the TT maps are screwy but the 12zGEM actually improved with the snowfall for us from 00z. The good news is very VERY rarely do those icestorm model solutions ever verify in our area. And the GEM is actually nice. The temps just absolutely crash while heavy qpf is still around and we get a nice thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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