jbcmh81 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 21 minutes ago, buckeye said: we all know that it's nothing more than a snapshot in time....but as of todays 12z runs, they were awesome. Euro bumped back south to put i70 back as the axis of heaviest snow, widespread 10-15" amounts from Dayton to Pittsburgh. Icon looks similar with 15" amounts. Gfs not as sexy but still very nice. Uk came in line with gfs. GGEM so far out on it's own it either scores the coupe of the century or get's the dunce cap, (but even it gives us 4-6" as bad as it looks). Then they all bring the arctic hammer right behind it, close -10 degrees. No celebration yet....still everything that can go wrong is on the table. I still think suppression is the biggest potential party-spoiler. The FV3 brought back the monster arctic outbreak, but even greater this time. It shows most of Ohio falling below zero on the 26th and has it stay well below zero through the end of the end of the run on the 31st, with another significant push of arctic air poised to drop south into February. That's the wildest run I've ever seen for cold in the Great Lakes by any model ever. For the record, the longest period of below 0 temperatures in Columbus is 56 hours during the 1994 outbreak. This would blow that away by a good week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/...Still too far out but I kind of like this track!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: It bias. I would ignore that completely. It did the same thing with a shittier pattern in December consistently in its cold bias. Part of NCEP's problem is the need to ridge in the pacific. The GGEM can have it at times while the ECMWF is the opposite with a bias to trough in the pacific. Oh I definitely don't buy it, but it's just something I've never seen on a model before. I do think many parts of the state go below zero perhaps as early as Sunday night, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 ....oh and beyond this weekend on the Euro....another potential snow beast lurks the middle of next week. Have we slipped into a parallel universe? Its like the alter George Costanza pattern versus our normal winter heartbreak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 18Z GFS with a move north. I’ve seen this movie before, I know how it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, JayPSU said: 18Z GFS with a move north. I’ve seen this movie before, I know how it ends. FV3 went south. Euro too. I wouldn't worry too much over one run of the GFS, the 18z at that. Now, if every model started doing that 3 or 4 days out, stick a fork in it. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, JayPSU said: 18Z GFS with a move north. I’ve seen this movie before, I know how it ends. Looks like it attempts some kind of transfer... one low into Kentucky while another reforms further southeast. It also has the extreme cold look next week with -20 and below numbers showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, jbcmh81 said: Looks like it attempts some kind of transfer... one low into Kentucky while another reforms further southeast. It also has the extreme cold look next week with -20 and below numbers showing up. I just hope with all that moisture along the front we can get some snow cover before the cold comes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 18z NAM is very snowy for the Thurs/Fri event. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, JayPSU said: 18Z GFS with a move north. I’ve seen this movie before, I know how it ends. Sure, it could be a trend north, or maybe the fv3 is foretelling a future trend south..... who knows, but forget the snow/rain depiction. Anytime ma nature wants to bring a low from Oklahoma to central WV with a 1047 arctic banana high pressing southeast, sign me up, I don't care what the gfs says it's going to do on the surface. That is not a setup that screams nw trend, IMveryHO. That weird skip where the WV low suddenly disappears and then reappears in SC says a lot about the resistance this is going to have trying to come northeast. I could even see a scenario where we rain and then a secondary forms on the front that ends up being the main show. Lot's to work out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Nam still trying to bring a couple inches Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 32 minutes ago, CoachLB said: Nam still trying to bring a couple inches Thursday. Hopefully it's sniffing out something, too bad it's at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 0Z Gfs pretty much aligns with the 18Z run. The heavy snow line goes right over Franklin county then dry slots quickly. Lots to figure out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 00z ICON is our perfect storm. Nice eye candy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I’m liking the icon that would be an epic hit for my neck of the woods!!! Probably not gonna be how it turns out but fun to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: 00z ICON is our perfect storm. Nice eye candy. Obliterating lol 14-18" with good winds. Agree fun to look at. GFS borderlines CMH but dumps up to 10" north of i70, GEM the same. Definitely a lot to sort still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Obliterating lol 14-18" with good winds. Agree fun to look at. GFS borderlines CMH but dumps up to 10" north of i70, GEM the same. Definitely a lot to sort still. Definitely a thread the needle thing for us, but has the potential to be a 'spread the wealth' event. Plus, do you want to be in the bullseye 5 + days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Definitely a thread the needle thing for us, but has the potential to be a 'spread the wealth' event. Plus, do you want to be in the bullseye 5 + days out? Not liking the north trends in general. Didnt appear to really be likely with this type of setup but its Ohio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Waiting on buckeye's uncle Ukie report ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Waiting on buckeye's uncle Ukie report ... Well it doesn't look good, I'll say that. Weak and suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, dilly84 said: Well it doesn't look good, I'll say that. Weak and suppressed Out of the frying pan into the fire. Yea, a quick glance at the panels didn't look all that great for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, vespasian70 said: Out of the frying pan into the fire. Yea, a quick glance at the panels didn't look all that great for us. For anyone. Just a horrible run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Waiting on buckeye's uncle Ukie report ... I wish I had a 132hr plot...but at 120 it's further south and at 144 it's way east on the ne coast, so it looks to have abandoned any NW moves at least. When I saw that icon run my first thought was why does this have to be the icon? Lol. Not only does it put down like 18", it had winds well over 30mph, a classic blizzard. Nice to see the gem come south....still needs work. It looks like this is turning into a West to east storm unable to cut nw. So question remains what factors end up winning out to push the trajectory more north or south. The low can only strengthen so much without room for the trough to go neg. I wonder if tonight runs were the north ceiling? Wishful thinking maybe. Then again I wouldn't be surprised to see euro bump north again. How many times have we seen a pattern where the 12z goes south and the 00z goes north and seems to repeat for several runs. This old man ain't staying up for it either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: I wish I had a 132hr plot...but at 120 it's further south and at 144 it's way east on the ne coast, so it looks to have abandoned any NW moves at least. When I saw that icon run my first thought was why does this have to be the icon? Lol. Not only does it put down like 18", it had winds well over 30mph, a classic blizzard. Nice to see the gem come south....still needs work. It looks like this is turning into a West to east storm unable to cut nw. So question remains what factors end up winning out to push the trajectory more north or south. The low can only strengthen so much without room for the trough to go neg. I wonder if tonight runs were the north ceiling? Wishful thinking maybe. Then again I wouldn't be surprised to see euro bump north again. How many times have we seen a pattern where the 12z goes south and the 00z goes north and seems to repeat for several runs. This old man ain't staying up for it either. Yup. Trends weren't bad for us, and I totally agree regarding the ICON - nice fantasy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Twc is already calling for 8 to 10 for my area. Hope it stays that way but doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Aallen said: Twc is already calling for 8 to 10 for my area. Hope it stays that way but doubtful Must be riding the ICON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, Aallen said: Twc is already calling for 8 to 10 for my area. Hope it stays that way but doubtful It's calling for "Rain, 40°" for me just north of the river west of Cincy. GFS has an ice storm for me... C'mon Ukie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: It's calling for "Rain, 40°" for me just north of the river west of Cincy. GFS has an ice storm for me... C'mon Ukie! I see that. I’m 5 miles from interstate 70. Hopefully the ice winds up south of both of us!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'll just leave this here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: I'll just leave this here. I’ll take it!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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