Let's Talk Winter!!

[pondo1000]

On 2/14/2019 at 9:33 AM, buckeye said:

I keep expecting to see the mjo chart suddenly change to show us going into the cod or back tracking to 7...and yet it only gets stronger into 8 and 1 with each update.  Not only that, but the SOI is crashing.   JB does sound defeated but a few days after his epic meltdown in January, everything switched to a colder look.    I wonder if models will suddenly snap back like that.  If not, than yea, the mjo is certainly not ruling the pattern now.

As of now, the rest of Feb looks like a typical hum drum depressing, uneventful, gross Ohio Feb.

Why do I get the feeling we are in for a cold/cool spring? -NAO will probably pop. Always untimely. Shows up early fall & in spring it seems lately. 

[chuckster2012]

Probably not thread worthy but snow ( at least on radar ) is just to my west, moving my way. Looks like Ohio River counties may see something unless this is virga. Will keep informed..

[Frog Town]

Well, DTX pretty much much sums it up for much of the sub forum......talk about a rock and hard spot, lol.

Relentless pattern of anticyclonic wave breaking over the NPAC & CWB
over the NATL domain will continue for the duration of the extended
period courtesy of a retracted Pacific jet and active STJ extending
across the USA. This will, at least, result in stagnation of the
current pattern but will more likely favor some degree of longwave
amplification accompanied by a tendency for retrogression of the
mean storm track when energy occasionally ejects from the western US
trough. The forecast is therefore one that migrates toward
increasingly mild outcomes with time. The best chances for snow will
require suppression from the polar jet which will in turn limit
amplification potential and subsequent impact potential while deeper
cyclones will be far more likely to track west of the area and bring
snow-mix-ra transitions. The first manifestations of this tendency
are Sunday`s suppressed low-impact snow potential (discussed above)
followed by 12z NWP depictions of a warmer STJ-influenced system
lifting west of the CWA mid-week next week.

[osubrett2]

Moderate to heavy sleet/freezing rain band just rolled through here. Got caught out walking the dog and the sleet wasn’t the typical pellet form, but rather chunks of ice. It actually stung lol. Temps are hovering right at 31/32 so we’ll see if it rises and changes to plain rain. There is some dripping off elevates surfaces, but I blame the heavy rate equally as the temps. 

[buckeye]

Heh,  euro thumps us with 8" before the change to rain Wednesday. 

[snowlover2]

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Heh,  euro thumps us with 8" before the change to rain Wednesday. 

Not buying it until I see it.

[buckeye]

Remember the good old days....e e rule? 

Starting to get a little interesting.  Euro and nam jumping to the same solution 2.5 days out.   Have to see whether the gfs wants to play ball too.

[snowlover2]

25 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Remember the good old days....e e rule? 

Starting to get a little interesting.  Euro and nam jumping to the same solution 2.5 days out.   Have to see whether the gfs wants to play ball too.

Kuchera map is not as impressed especially farther south where the change is quicker. Same goes for 12z Euro Kuchera.

[OHweather]

2 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Not a chance.

Right, big surges of moisture running into a high pressure and cold air never produce snow.  

I wouldn’t lock this one in yet but stranger things have happened.  I think you guys should root for a faster solution as the high eventually retreats, so the more precip before then the better. 

[buckeye]

15 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Right, big surges of moisture running into a high pressure and cold air never produce snow.  

I wouldn’t lock this one in yet but stranger things have happened.  I think you guys should root for a faster solution as the high eventually retreats, so the more precip before then the better. 

 exactly, sure it's a long shot but there's nothing complicated about it.  I mean it's not like we're dealing with model feedback issues etc. 

It's simply all about timing in a race between a departing high and incoming moisture.   

The fact that models are starting to see more front end frozen as the 60 to 72 hr window approaches, is something worth watching, trend-wise, if nothing else.

 

[OHweather]

13 minutes ago, buckeye said:

 exactly, sure it's a long shot but there's nothing complicated about it.  I mean it's not like we're dealing with model feedback issues etc. 

It's simply all about timing in a race between a departing high and incoming moisture.   

The fact that models are starting to see more front end frozen as the 60 to 72 hr window approaches, is something worth watching, trend-wise, if nothing else.

 

Yeah. One of those where I’m not excited, but it’s pretty easy to see how it happens and more than a couple Euro runs have hinted at it.  You guys are a good storm away from clinching an average or above snowfall winter somehow and as much as March snow is undesirable for some, it’s not like there’d be nice weather otherwise...so front end warning thump snow would be fun. 

[buckeye]

Ummm Plenty of waa snows occur with low tracks well to our west. 

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

 Its actually easy to understand why models fail. ECMWF can't tell the difference between sleet,freezing rain and calls it snow. How many more "failures" does one need to look at this winter? The ECMWF and the post-24 hour NAM have been atrocious this winter. Simply put, the programmers need to be called out. Putting "snow" in there when the freaking upper level wave is over western Illinois is dumber than hell. The WAA lift will be intense.

Yeah, but it can snow ahead of an upper low. It eventually goes to something else, but that intense WAA running into a stubborn high/cold air can wring out a good amount of precip.  The Euro does not count sleet or ice as snow...it used to years ago but does not anymore.  The NAM does count sleet/ZR as snow 10:1 snow, though other products such as “positive snow depth change” don’t and show accumulating snow with this.  It’s easy to take the under on the 8-9” of snow the Euro spits out...but with a push of moisture and cold in front of it some sort of snow isn’t hard to envision.  N NJ got 8-12” of WAA front end thump in November with the upper low to our west, it can and does happen (though often not to that extent). 

[buckeye]

43 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Yeah, but it can snow ahead of an upper low. It eventually goes to something else, but that intense WAA running into a stubborn high/cold air can wring out a good amount of precip.  The Euro does not count sleet or ice as snow...it used to years ago but does not anymore.  The NAM does count sleet/ZR as snow 10:1 snow, though other products such as “positive snow depth change” don’t and show accumulating snow with this.  It’s easy to take the under on the 8-9” of snow the Euro spits out...but with a push of moisture and cold in front of it some sort of snow isn’t hard to envision.  N NJ got 8-12” of WAA front end thump in November with the upper low to our west, it can and does happen (though often not to that extent). 

January 1999 is a great example locally.  That low tracked near Chicago and we got all snow.  By the time the warm air took over we were left with freezing drizzle, after about 9".   Of course this is no where near as dynamic a system as that was and the HP was probably stronger too.

Regardless, whether we get snow or not out of this, there are lots of examples of accumulating snows out ahead of a low taking an imperfect track for us.  Not at all unusual.   I mean this is basic meteorology, I would think even Angry would understand it.

[HighTechEE]

13 hours ago, buckeye said:

January 1999 is a great example locally.  That low tracked near Chicago and we got all snow.  By the time the warm air took over we were left with freezing drizzle, after about 9".   Of course this is no where near as dynamic a system as that was and the HP was probably stronger too.

Regardless, whether we get snow or not out of this, there are lots of examples of accumulating snows out ahead of a low taking an imperfect track for us.  Not at all unusual.   I mean this is basic meteorology, I would think even Angry would understand it.

ILN doing the 2 to 4" thing again tmar night into Wed morning.  Similar to your '99 event I remember one from the last week of December close to 1990 where Cincy got a foot from a front end dump, Dayton about 5" before the warm front made it thru to drizzle. A bunch of guys from work where skiing at Perfect North that night loving life until they tried to go home and got stuck in their cars the whole night!

[buckeye]

NAM'D! 

if only.....

 

[pondo1000]

5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

NAM'D! 

if only.....

 

LOL. Well halve that maybe? Still nice. 

[JayPSU]

Then you have the GFS with a half inch.  If I was a betting man, I’d go with that.

[buckeye]

3 hours ago, JayPSU said:

Then you have the GFS with a half inch.  If I was a betting man, I’d go with that.

yea, kind of crazy.   Euro sticking with 6-7" across franklin county.   We're inside 48 hours and we have a range between 0 and 15".   Not only is there a discrepency in totals, but also where the band of heaviest sets up.  Some show it over southeastern OH and some over sw or central OH.   Models have been unbelievably putrid this winter.   In fact sometimes I think the only technology that hasn't improved in the last 10 years is weather modeling.   

[Hoosier]

NAM isn't really 15"... that is TT nonsense due to awful algorithm.  That being said, curious to see how this plays out for you guys.  Front end snow on an unfavorable track isn't unusual but a warning criteria snowfall is, though it can happen as has been mentioned earlier. 

[Steve]

So now even the local forecast is calling for 3 to 5 inches late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning...

[chuckster2012]

18z Nam calling for 4+ " in Cincinnati. GFS 2" +..

[Buckeye1994]

I think a solid 3-6 inches in Montgomery County. there will be ample moisture with this system. Snowfall rates will be tremendous, could boom imo. But if the warm air surges faster than previously thought, 1 inch of slush and a miserable rain could also be on the table.  

[dilly84]

Ya know, I've learnt over time never doubt the NAM short range.

[buckeye]

Wednesday morning rush hour gonna be fun

[OHweather]

I think a swath of moderate snow (3-6”) is likely across a good portion of central and southern Ohio...

All signs point to a boatload of QPF with outstanding upper level divergence, high PWATs advecting in, very strong low to mid level warm air advection and isentropic lift, and strong frontogensis.  

Question mark is obviously ptype.  With plenty of room to wet bulb cool as the precip arrives and what should be very strong lift, think it’s likely most areas north of the Ohio River flip to a few hours of snow...though it may initially start as sleet and surface temps won’t be that cold.  Strong lift will slow the advance of the mixing for a time, though with how strong the WAA is it will eventually overwhelm, so it may be hard for anyone to see more than 4-6 hours of all snow.  

Given the sensitivity to temps and rates here, hard to be very confident in big snows for a large area.  I think there’s enough juice for warning criteria somewhere but it may be the exception rather than the rule.  The low and mid levels aren’t that cold so it will be a wet snow.  I’d like to see model soundings show a better “cross hair signature” (lift in the snow growth zone) for better confidence in 6”+ snow.  Right now the idea of a few hours of moderate to heavy QPF as snow but with questionable ratios limits how aggressive I can go to 3-6”, but it could be an exciting 3-6” and there is some boom potential.  My guess is the jackpot may be central and east central Ohio. 

Either way it’s tricky and though I’m fairly optimistic for someone to get a decent thump, trends during the day Tuesday leading up will make or break it. 

[CoachLB]

[dilly84]

I think it may be time to start taking the NAM seriously here... Not very often is greatly off base this close.

[buckeye]

7 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

You guys are trying way too hard.

so OHweather, an actual meteorologist,  gives his time to put together the potential scenarios for this event and this is your feedback?    

...and you wonder why most folks here in our sub consider you a d-bag.

[Steve]

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

so OHweather, an actual meteorologist,  gives his time to put together the potential scenarios for this event and this is your feedback?    

...and you wonder why most folks here in our sub consider you a d-bag.