Let's Talk Winter!!

[vpbob21]

16 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Last Friday, the euro depicted CMH receiving 27 inches of snow by tomorrow, (Monday),  with temps in the - teens as well.     The failure and constant stepping back of any and all winter threats has been brutal this season.   

The euro now has us getting a tenth of an inch of snow over the next ten days, (that not qpf, it's snowfall).   That might be the worst 10 day euro snowfall run for us since December.   

The GFS is barely any better, has an inch or two from a clipper on Friday and other than that pretty much pitches a shutout at us over the next 16.  Sure, most of those deep cutters are out in fantasy range, but it looks quite plausible to me.

[jbcmh81]

9 hours ago, OHweather said:

What am I missing? Isn’t most of central/southern Ohio near normal snowfall wise (some a little above, some a little below) with most of that falling in the last two weeks?  The pattern also isn’t exactly warm coming up and it’s not even February 1 yet.  It’s like reading a funeral in here because a surface low over toledo managed to bring sprinkles (it looks like the vast majority of your precip fell as snow with temps at or below feeezing north of Cincinnati and that maybe it briefly sprinkled).  This wasn’t going to be more than an inch or so of snow anyways. 

The extended looks terrible for anything winter-related.  I doubt anyone cares things are near average with most of it coming in 0.2" increments between dry and cold or warm and wet periods.  The pitifully few storms have vastly underperformed.  Also, it's hilarious how many midnight highs there've been.  Even a lot of the cold will go into the record books as being pretty tame because of that.  January will end up barely below normal in Columbus.

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, jbcmh81 said:

The extended looks terrible for anything winter-related.  I doubt anyone cares things are near average with most of it coming in 0.2" increments between dry and cold or warm and wet periods.  The pitifully few storms have vastly underperformed.  Also, it's hilarious how many midnight highs there've been.  Even a lot of the cold will go into the record books as being pretty tame because of that.  January will end up barely below normal in Columbus.

I’d argue the extended doesn’t look terrible...reshuffle in the pattern next week with 5-7 mild/snowless days and then it’s not even mid February with a -AO persisting.  While a lot of your snow has come from unexciting events, that is literally climo for Ohio unfortunately and most of it has been recent.  The storm two weekends ago was not an underperformer for central or southern or even northern Ohio.  Many including myself got burned on how far north it rained last Saturday, but it was still a plowable snow and a lot of wind with the deform behind that.  That’s two advisory to warning criteria snows on back to back weekends.  It’s been wintry enough lately and there’s still a lot of time left.  I just can’t find the will to feel bad for the Ohio crew after the last two weeks.  I’d expect this sort of complaining from NYC or BOS where they’re at least significantly below average snowfall to this point, and tend to be more temperamental anyways. 

[OHweather]

4 hours ago, buckeye said:

Last Friday, the euro depicted CMH receiving 27 inches of snow by tomorrow, (Monday),  with temps in the - teens as well.     The failure and constant stepping back of any and all winter threats has been brutal this season.   

The euro now has us getting a tenth of an inch of snow over the next ten days, (that not qpf, it's snowfall).   That might be the worst 10 day euro snowfall run for us since December.   

I don’t disagree that the models have been horrible lately and they generally look less snowy as we get closer, it’s been the same here, but you’ve still gotten snow.  It hasn’t been banner by any stretch and may not be meeting expectations for some, but it’s been “ok” with a lot of winter left.  I suppose it’s been a few years since a truly good Ohio winter and we’re due for it, but weak El Niño’s are what they are for the Ohio Valley.  Some have gone big but most don’t.  If it still looks like crap in a week or two maybe it’s time to bring on Spring, but it is still early enough to get plenty of snow and then break for a decent spring by later March. 

[hoosierwx]

Don't mind at all getting screwed with the Monday system. I'll take no snow and 5 below as opposed to snow and 25 below.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

[jbcmh81]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

I’d argue the extended doesn’t look terrible...reshuffle in the pattern next week with 5-7 mild/snowless days and then it’s not even mid February with a -AO persisting.  While a lot of your snow has come from unexciting events, that is literally climo for Ohio unfortunately and most of it has been recent.  The storm two weekends ago was not an underperformer for central or southern or even northern Ohio.  Many including myself got burned on how far north it rained last Saturday, but it was still a plowable snow and a lot of wind with the deform behind that.  That’s two advisory to warning criteria snows on back to back weekends.  It’s been wintry enough lately and there’s still a lot of time left.  I just can’t find the will to feel bad for the Ohio crew after the last two weeks.  I’d expect this sort of complaining from NYC or BOS where they’re at least significantly below average snowfall to this point, and tend to be more temperamental anyways. 

December was 31 days of mild and snowless.  The first week of January was mild and snowless.  February looks mild and snowless the first week-10 days at least.  At this point, that's not a fluke, that IS the pattern for winter 2018-19.  I don't think you can shine this turd and call it a diamond by throwing out a couple low-end advisory snows.  And no one is demanding your sympathy.  It's stating the obvious. People were saying "there's a lot of winter left" in January 1998 and 2002, or December 2011.  Having a lot of winter left has no bearing on whether it turns out any better than what's already happened.  You should know this. This is not a good winter for virtually anyone outside of a very few places.  Without some historic end, it's going to be forgettable at best.  If you disagree, that's fine.  What's your call then?  I'm going to go out on a limb and say that, barring some singular luck and hitting a big storm, the I-70 corridor at least will end up below normal snowfall in a warmer than normal winter. 

 

[Chinook]

Interesting comparison of the record-setting January 18th, 1994 (evening) KDAY sounding with the GFS forecast of the Wednesday morning sounding in NW Ohio. If you remember that in 1994, Toledo had -18 on January 19th 1994 and it was even colder in northeast and southeast Ohio.

 

 

[OHweather]

18 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

December was 31 days of mild and snowless.  The first week of January was mild and snowless.  February looks mild and snowless the first week-10 days at least.  At this point, that's not a fluke, that IS the pattern for winter 2018-19.  I don't think you can shine this turd and call it a diamond by throwing out a couple low-end advisory snows.  And no one is demanding your sympathy.  It's stating the obvious. People were saying "there's a lot of winter left" in January 1998 and 2002, or December 2011.  Having a lot of winter left has no bearing on whether it turns out any better than what's already happened.  You should know this. This is not a good winter for virtually anyone outside of a very few places.  Without some historic end, it's going to be forgettable at best.  If you disagree, that's fine.  What's your call then?  I'm going to go out on a limb and say that, barring some singular luck and hitting a big storm, the I-70 corridor at least will end up below normal snowfall in a warmer than normal winter. 

 

I'm not going to disagree that the start of winter was awful for Ohio!  Can't argue with 0.4" of snow at CMH in December.  But, you're going to finish January slightly snowier than normal for the month, and as you pointed out that's after burning through the first week.  Your characterization of those two storms is accurate for your backyard and Columbus in general but grosely under-represents what large portions of central and southern OH saw with each...many areas saw a warning criteria snow with at least one of them, and DAY and CVG are both above average to date on seasonal snowfall, let alone just for the month, and they also didn't do any better until January 12th-13th.  And that's after literally nothing in December. 

So, after a poor December and perfectly acceptable January (argue if you wish, but by all metrics it's been anywhere from "acceptable" to "decent" snowfall wise depending on where you live, with colder than average temperatures after the first week) we have a frigid end to January.  The first week of February looks poor.  It will be generally mild for 5-7 days.  After that the AO remains negative.  There are signs the NAO goes negative.  The MJO comes back around.  I'd expect more cold and snow.  I'll agree we've struggled to see cold lock in so far (though the last 3 weeks of January aren't far off), though the general consensus heading in was for a more backloaded winter.  Argue the stratospheric warming event if you wish, but the AO drop occurred on schedule and big cold arrived on schedule, and oh it also turned snowier in mid-January, right on schedule for a roughly 2 week lag after the split happened.  It is having an affect and will continue to. 

CMH will be a few inches in the hole by the second week of February, and I suspect it ends up being a few weeks of "typical" winter.  Pretty cold, some snow, probably not "winter of yore"...I won't be exciting and call for above average snow for CMH, I think they finish at 20-25".  It's a bit below average, but after a very poor December and first week of January is an ok second half of winter.  I lean against CMH seeing a big storm that pushes them over average, but I suspect that's all it will take as there should be several light to moderate events from the second week of February on that gradually tack onto the seasonal total. 

I can't tell you what to like or not like and not, this probably won't be a winter that grandkids hear about, but it's shocking that after quickly catching up to almost normal snowfall (and at DAY and CVG blowing past it) after an awful start that a 10-12 day snowless stretch elicits calls to cancel winter...before February 1st...especially when there's nothing close to a prolonged torch showing up on the models.  5-7 mild/snowless days, absolutely, but I think by February 10th (and perhaps sooner) it's cooling back off with chances for snow returning.  Probably not flashy but this isn't 97-98, 01-02, or 11-12 IMO, and the recent run (plus upcoming cold) demonstrates that, especially since there isn't a massive blow torch coming up to start February anyways.

[jbcmh81]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

I'm not going to disagree that the start of winter was awful for Ohio!  Can't argue with 0.4" of snow at CMH in December.  But, you're going to finish January slightly snowier than normal for the month, and as you pointed out that's after burning through the first week.  Your characterization of those two storms is accurate for your backyard and Columbus in general but grosely under-represents what large portions of central and southern OH saw with each...many areas saw a warning criteria snow with at least one of them, and DAY and CVG are both above average to date on seasonal snowfall, let alone just for the month, and they also didn't do any better until January 12th-13th.  And that's after literally nothing in December. 

So, after a poor December and perfectly acceptable January (argue if you wish, but by all metrics it's been anywhere from "acceptable" to "decent" snowfall wise depending on where you live, with colder than average temperatures after the first week) we have a frigid end to January.  The first week of February looks poor.  It will be generally mild for 5-7 days.  After that the AO remains negative.  There are signs the NAO goes negative.  The MJO comes back around.  I'd expect more cold and snow.  I'll agree we've struggled to see cold lock in so far (though the last 3 weeks of January aren't far off), though the general consensus heading in was for a more backloaded winter.  Argue the stratospheric warming event if you wish, but the AO drop occurred on schedule and big cold arrived on schedule, and oh it also turned snowier in mid-January, right on schedule for a roughly 2 week lag after the split happened.  It is having an affect and will continue to. 

CMH will be a few inches in the hole by the second week of February, and I suspect it ends up being a few weeks of "typical" winter.  Pretty cold, some snow, probably not "winter of yore"...I won't be exciting and call for above average snow for CMH, I think they finish at 20-25".  It's a bit below average, but after a very poor December and first week of January is an ok second half of winter.  I lean against CMH seeing a big storm that pushes them over average, but I suspect that's all it will take as there should be several light to moderate events from the second week of February on that gradually tack onto the seasonal total. 

I can't tell you what to like or not like and not, this probably won't be a winter that grandkids hear about, but it's shocking that after quickly catching up to almost normal snowfall (and at DAY and CVG blowing past it) after an awful start that a 10-12 day snowless stretch elicits calls to cancel winter...before February 1st...especially when there's nothing close to a prolonged torch showing up on the models.  5-7 mild/snowless days, absolutely, but I think by February 10th (and perhaps sooner) it's cooling back off with chances for snow returning.  Probably not flashy but this isn't 97-98, 01-02, or 11-12 IMO, and the recent run (plus upcoming cold) demonstrates that, especially since there isn't a massive blow torch coming up to start February anyways.

I didn't cancel anything.  I just don't think mediocrity is something you can tell someone they should feel grateful for. Frankly, I have nothing to gain or lose here either way, but I've seen this movie enough times growing up in Ohio to have a good idea on how it ends.  I guess we'll see soon enough, but I'm out of the discussion until or unless something of any actual interest occurs.  Someone else can talk about the dustings, dry cold the next few days or 50s and rain for February.

[OHweather]

1 minute ago, jbcmh81 said:

I didn't cancel anything.  I just don't think mediocrity is something you can tell someone they should feel grateful for. Frankly, I have nothing to gain or lose here either way, but I've seen this movie enough times growing up in Ohio to have a good idea on how it ends.  I guess we'll see soon enough, but I'm out of the discussion until or unless something of any actual interest occurs.  Someone else can talk about the dustings, dry cold the next few days or 50s and rain for February.

You personally didn't cancel anything, but the overwhelming tone was quite negative including from yourself.  I never said you guys should be "grateful" for anything, but was quite surprised by the tone (I just happened to glance and see if anyone got snow last night) given the last two weeks have been quite a bit better than the 6 weeks prior and it's still early, and multiple indices are favorable moving forward.  Like I said in my previous reply I can't tell anyone what they like or don't like...just was surprised at all the pessimism and certainly inquired as to why it's suddenly the feeling here.  If you're going for 40-50" winters every year (and I know you and most who have been around for a while aren't) then sure, this winter won't get there, but there's still plenty of time left for snow and there has been more than dustings of snow recently.  Hopefully you guys get something decent in February and make this all a moot discussion. 

[vpbob21]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

You personally didn't cancel anything, but the overwhelming tone was quite negative including from yourself.  I never said you guys should be "grateful" for anything, but was quite surprised by the tone (I just happened to glance and see if anyone got snow last night) given the last two weeks have been quite a bit better than the 6 weeks prior and it's still early, and multiple indices are favorable moving forward.  Like I said in my previous reply I can't tell anyone what they like or don't like...just was surprised at all the pessimism and certainly inquired as to why it's suddenly the feeling here.  If you're going for 40-50" winters every year (and I know you and most who have been around for a while aren't) then sure, this winter won't get there, but there's still plenty of time left for snow and there has been more than dustings of snow recently.  Hopefully you guys get something decent in February and make this all a moot discussion. 

Am following this debate with great interest.  I would say my view is somewhere in between (but probably about 3/4 of the way toward the pessimists).  I probably have less to complain about than the central and southern OH posters (I got about 8” last weekend).  Even with an 8” snowstorm I am only at about 17.5” for the season which is probably near normal – I figure my area averages about 35”.  I think the frustration is that after 4 straight crappy winters this one promised so much more.  In fact there were some so-called experts that mentioned 1977-78 as a possible analog (OK, so one of them might have been JB).  That of course is the holy grail of winters in Ohio.  I never really bought into that idea, having lived through that epic winter I always knew that was probably a once-in-a-lifetime winter,  but still when the experts are throwing that winter out there it’s hard not to get your hopes up a little.

November was encouraging (even though it didn't snow a lot), then the December and 1^st week of January from hell.  I really thought after last weekend’s storm delivered that we had shaken this awful snow funk we’ve been in.  Then we get the snow-devouring rainstorm 3 days later, a modest event that looks to lay down 2-4” across much of Ohio veers up into Michigan at the last minute, now we get a strong hybrid clipper that dives through the Dakotas to Iowa and then signals for a left turn and cuts into Canada.  9 times out of 10 a system like that would bottom out somewhere around the Ohio Valley and then turn up the east coast.  So it’s pretty obvious that we haven’t come out of this crappy run of bad snow luck.

Adding to the aggravation is that everyone seemed to think that a nice run of winter weather was in store for late January into February with multiple opportunities for snow.  Now it looks like we’re going to lose at least a week as the mean trough shifts out west and we go into cutter hell.  I hope you are right about this bad pattern only lasting 5-7 days.  I for one am much more skeptical.  The CFSv2 weeklies are cold all 6 weeks, but all I hear from you guys is how bad the CFSv2 is (if I remember right they were consistently warm all of November).  I don’t have access to the Euro weeklies so I don’t know what they think.  I’ve learned not to take the 240+ hour GFS too seriously, but man, when it keeps showing warm cutters run after run after run, it’s hard not to get a little discouraged.

I don’t think anyone here expects epic winters year in and year out (that only happens in Detroit) but after 4 crap ones and all the encouraging signs, a just OK winter isn’t going to cut it.  I haven’t given up hope yet, but have to admit I’m a lot less optimistic than last week at this time.

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, vpbob21 said:

Am following this debate with great interest.  I would say my view is somewhere in between (but probably about 3/4 of the way toward the pessimists).  I probably have less to complain about than the central and southern OH posters (I got about 8” last weekend).  Even with an 8” snowstorm I am only at about 17.5” for the season which is probably near normal – I figure my area averages about 35”.  I think the frustration is that after 4 straight crappy winters this one promised so much more.  In fact there were some so-called experts that mentioned 1977-78 as a possible analog (OK, so one of them might have been JB).  That of course is the holy grail of winters in Ohio.  I never really bought into that idea, having lived through that epic winter I always knew that was probably a once-in-a-lifetime winter,  but still when the experts are throwing that winter out there it’s hard not to get your hopes up a little.

 

November was encouraging (even though it didn't snow a lot), then the December and 1^st week of January from hell.  I really thought after last weekend’s storm delivered that we had shaken this awful snow funk we’ve been in.  Then we get the snow-devouring rainstorm 3 days later, a modest event that looks to lay down 2-4” across much of Ohio veers up into Michigan at the last minute, now we get a strong hybrid clipper that dives through the Dakotas to Iowa and then signals for a left turn and cuts into Canada.  9 times out of 10 a system like that would bottom out somewhere around the Ohio Valley and then turn up the east coast.  So it’s pretty obvious that we haven’t come out of this crappy run of bad snow luck.

 

Adding to the aggravation is that everyone seemed to think that a nice run of winter weather was in store for late January into February with multiple opportunities for snow.  Now it looks like we’re going to lose at least a week as the mean trough shifts out west and we go into cutter hell.  I hope you are right about this bad pattern only lasting 5-7 days.  I for one am much more skeptical.  The CFSv2 weeklies are cold all 6 weeks, but all I hear from you guys is how bad the CFSv2 is (if I remember right they were consistently warm all of November).  I don’t have access to the Euro weeklies so I don’t know what they think.  I’ve learned not to take the 240+ hour GFS too seriously, but man, when it keeps showing warm cutters run after run after run, it’s hard not to get a little discouraged.

 

I don’t think anyone here expects epic winters year in and year out (that only happens in Detroit) but after 4 crap ones and all the encouraging signs, a just OK winter isn’t going to cut it.  I haven’t given up hope yet, but have to admit I’m a lot less optimistic than last week at this time.

 

It's been disheartening at times to watch your snow amounts come in over the last few years, they've been underwhelming nearly every storm, so I can understand your frustration on a larger scale.  And living in Ohio my whole life until a few months ago, and spending a few recent winters in SE Ohio, I certainly know what it's like and know that other than 13-14 and parts of 14-15 it's actually been a pretty lackluster decade in Ohio. 

The 77-78 analog is funny because it was a decent analog for many reasons, and the recent evolution could've been much more exciting had we gotten a couple of shortwaves to phase better.  We got extreme amplification at around the same time as that winter and driven by similar larger scale patterns (weak El Nino, strat warming event), but it didn't quite fall that way in terms of storms working out.  But, much like 09-10 in the mid-Atlantic, the odds of getting a winter with similar drivers to work out that well again just aren't great, they're historic for a reason which you alluded to.   77-78 weighed rather strongly on my analog list, but other years that made it in weren't very exciting (06-07 a recent poor winter that was on the list, same with 94-95).  There were also a lot of close to average, a bit above or a bit below winters in there.

I don't want to polish a turd.  It may be easier for me from afar, I see it as "wow, after a bad start most of Ohio is catching up to their averages decently, and I see another period of cold/snow on the horizon" while some here are going "after a bad start, we're warming back up after 2-3 weeks of cold in a decade that hasn't been good for us."  I'm not living it this year (not that it's snowed much here yet either) so maybe I don't quite have the same perspective.  We can argue how to interpret what's happened so far all day, I just believe that given a gradual but definite pattern shift over the last few weeks that is still (IMO, for a number of reasons) evolving that this little 2-3 week shot isn't close to being it.  If I didn't see signs of cold air returning I'd be much more understanding of wanting to punt to next winter.  The Euro weeklies honestly haven't been reliable this winter, but are also quite cold/active with a similar pattern as the CFS for roughly the same time period.  Given continued gradual downwelling of the stratospheric warming event contributing to a -AO and likely -NAO as tropical forcing tries to line up again in early February, there is support for their general forecast IMO.  The trick that I still haven't figured out yet is, do we get a two week shot in February and warm back up, or is it a bit more prolonged?  I'm leaning towards it being prolonged as once patterns influenced by a stratospheric warming event setup they usually are persistent, but that may make the difference between what would be a very meh winter and something that's at least closer to average. 

[NEOH]

From CLE's AFD. If this is the case sign me up for Spring! 

A look at the global northern hemispheric circulation is beginning to show signs that the Arctic air from the North Pole will begin to
flow back toward Russia once again in a similar fashion as what occurred through December. This will aid in ejecting the cold air
mass expected Tuesday and Wednesday east of the area fairly quickly. This upper level pattern change will support the possibility of
stronger ridges building into North America as we head into the weekend. The North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations are indicating a
change to a strong positive phase over the next couple weeks and perhaps a warming trend.

[Frog Town]

19 minutes ago, NEOH said:

From CLE's AFD. If this is the case sign me up for Spring! 

A look at the global northern hemispheric circulation is beginning to show signs that the Arctic air from the North Pole will begin to
flow back toward Russia once again in a similar fashion as what occurred through December. This will aid in ejecting the cold air
mass expected Tuesday and Wednesday east of the area fairly quickly. This upper level pattern change will support the possibility of
stronger ridges building into North America as we head into the weekend. The North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations are indicating a
change to a strong positive phase over the next couple weeks and perhaps a warming trend.

Seems a little premature to me.  I don't doubt a little warm up coming next week, but that has Zero support accept those two wishy-washy indicators.  

[NEOH]

22 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Seems a little premature to me.  I don't doubt a little warm up coming next week, but that has Zero support accept those two wishy-washy indicators.  

Take a look at the ensembles... its not pretty on the GEFS or GEPS from 2/6 - 2/13. EPS gets ugly by 2/3 and continues on. Not sure what other support their could be?

[buckeye]

I can see both sides of the OH/jbcmh discussion.    But taking into account the venue in which the debate is taking place....I feel jbcmh has the winning point.   What I mean by that is OH is trying to tell a group of weather weenie enthusiasts that 'technically' they have nothing to complain about.  That's like telling a group of rabid OSU fans that they have no right to be disappointed by a 10 and 2 season.   It might be true that on paper we're doing fine and are close to climo.   Problem with that argument is the choir you're preaching to worships to a different god than climo.  No one who reads or participates in this forum is rooting for climo to be reached.  We all have day jobs and wouldn't waste our time posting and participating here, or staying up until 1am for a euro run, if we were just seeking to reach climo every year via nickles and dimes.  We're already very good at that.  

We are all ultimately in search of something 'memorable' to happen each winter.   Something that 10 years from now would make a top 10 list.   It really has been quite awhile since we had that.   My last truly memorable event was not a single event, but a stretch of weather that occurred in Feb of '10.   That was 9 years ago.  We have had a couple of decent storms since than, but nothing I can etch in granite as a singularly memorable event.   

With that in mind, this winter has been miserable.  Expectations were built up tremendously.  Most of us in the southern areas of the sub missed the single event for the sub in Nov and we were all shut out in December.   Than our usual nickel and dimes showed up in January followed by a storm that was surprisingly disappointing for what could, (if not should), have been, (OH even admitted so).   Now we sit on the cusp of a possible record breaking artic intrusion while being forced to stay inside and look out the window at frozen mud and crispy grass.   The so-called clipper that once looked like an arctic boundary snow storm, (on the medium range euro), morphed into a clipper that doesn't even make it south of Chicago before hanging a left into the lakes and missing the entire state of Ohio.   Now, as we find ourselves in the midst of what JB once referred to as the climax of this severe winter, (Jan 20 - Mid Feb), we already have a several day stretch of warm weather showing up right smack in the middle of it.   

So then what's next?  Who knows?  I believe nothing, no model, no forecasters, no indices.  I expect nothing for the rest of winter ...fending off disappointment and inviting only surprise.  

[pondo1000]

8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I can see both sides of the OH/jbcmh discussion.    But taking into account the venue in which the debate is taking place....I feel jbcmh has the winning point.   What I mean by that is OH is trying to tell a group of weather weenie enthusiasts that 'technically' they have nothing to complain about.  That's like telling a group of rabid OSU fans that they have no right to be disappointed by a 10 and 2 season.   It might be true that on paper we're doing fine and are close to climo.   Problem with that argument is the choir you're preaching to worships to a different god than climo.  No one who reads or participates in this forum is rooting for climo to be reached.  We all have day jobs and wouldn't waste our time posting and participating here, or staying up until 1am for a euro run, if we were just seeking to reach climo every year via nickles and dimes.  We're already very good at that.  

We are all ultimately in search of something 'memorable' to happen each winter.   Something that 10 years from now would make a top 10 list.   It really has been quite awhile since we had that.   My last truly memorable event was not a single event, but a stretch of weather that occurred in Feb of '10.   That was 9 years ago.  We have had a couple of decent storms since than, but nothing I can etch in granite as a singularly memorable event.   

With that in mind, this winter has been miserable.  Expectations were built up tremendously.  Most of us in the southern areas of the sub missed the single event for the sub in Nov and we were all shut out in December.   Than our usual nickel and dimes showed up in January followed by a storm that was surprisingly disappointing for what could, (if not should), have been, (OH even admitted so).   Now we sit on the cusp of a possible record breaking artic intrusion while being forced to stay inside and look out the window at frozen mud and crispy grass.   The so-called clipper that once looked like an arctic boundary snow storm, (on the medium range euro), morphed into a clipper that doesn't even make it south of Chicago before hanging a left into the lakes and missing the entire state of Ohio.   Now, as we find ourselves in the midst of what JB once referred to as the climax of this severe winter, (Jan 20 - Mid Feb), we already have a several day stretch of warm weather showing up right smack in the middle of it.   

So then what's next?  Who knows?  I believe nothing, no model, no forecasters, no indices.  I expect nothing for the rest of winter ...fending off disappointment and inviting only surprise.  

Amen. Well said as usual. 

[jbcmh81]

23 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I can see both sides of the OH/jbcmh discussion.    But taking into account the venue in which the debate is taking place....I feel jbcmh has the winning point.   What I mean by that is OH is trying to tell a group of weather weenie enthusiasts that 'technically' they have nothing to complain about.  That's like telling a group of rabid OSU fans that they have no right to be disappointed by a 10 and 2 season.   It might be true that on paper we're doing fine and are close to climo.   Problem with that argument is the choir you're preaching to worships to a different god than climo.  No one who reads or participates in this forum is rooting for climo to be reached.  We all have day jobs and wouldn't waste our time posting and participating here, or staying up until 1am for a euro run, if we were just seeking to reach climo every year via nickles and dimes.  We're already very good at that.  

We are all ultimately in search of something 'memorable' to happen each winter.   Something that 10 years from now would make a top 10 list.   It really has been quite awhile since we had that.   My last truly memorable event was not a single event, but a stretch of weather that occurred in Feb of '10.   That was 9 years ago.  We have had a couple of decent storms since than, but nothing I can etch in granite as a singularly memorable event.   

With that in mind, this winter has been miserable.  Expectations were built up tremendously.  Most of us in the southern areas of the sub missed the single event for the sub in Nov and we were all shut out in December.   Than our usual nickel and dimes showed up in January followed by a storm that was surprisingly disappointing for what could, (if not should), have been, (OH even admitted so).   Now we sit on the cusp of a possible record breaking artic intrusion while being forced to stay inside and look out the window at frozen mud and crispy grass.   The so-called clipper that once looked like an arctic boundary snow storm, (on the medium range euro), morphed into a clipper that doesn't even make it south of Chicago before hanging a left into the lakes and missing the entire state of Ohio.   Now, as we find ourselves in the midst of what JB once referred to as the climax of this severe winter, (Jan 20 - Mid Feb), we already have a several day stretch of warm weather showing up right smack in the middle of it.   

So then what's next?  Who knows?  I believe nothing, no model, no forecasters, no indices.  I expect nothing for the rest of winter ...fending off disappointment and inviting only surprise.  

Eh, even the arctic intrusion looks pretty standard as well.  Chicago and points along and north of 80 look great for potential record cold, but again, anywhere along and south of 70 looks like similar cold those areas see at least once every couple winters.  It's been significantly muted from what it once looked like.  Single-digits below zero is certainly cold, but it happened last winter, and 2015 and 2014 and 2011 and 2010 and 2009 and 2008... Other areas are having a completely different winter.  This is all really pessimistic, but after Sunday night's 1-3" forecast turned into half an inch of flurries, only the latest disappointment, it really started to become apparent that this was not going to turn out great in the end.  Everyone who either lives or has ever lived in Ohio should know that only rarely do winters make a complete 180 from terrible starts and underwhelming patterns once they've been established for 2 months.  The last one in Ohio was probably 2006-2007, and even in that winter, the one big storm was a mostly heartbreaking miss to the north, and that was in one of the coldest Februaries on record, something this pattern is never producing.

[Buckeye1994]

updated GFS map on the potential quick hitter later this week 

[chuckster2012]

2 hours ago, Buckeye1994 said:

updated GFS map on the potential quick hitter later this week 

Great, but just like all the rest we've had down here it'll be mostly gone in the blink of an eye...

[buckeye]

euro now has our coldest temps coming in only at around -3 or 4.   zzzzzzzzzzzz   what an absolute overhyped joke this is turning out to be, this may not even end up as cold as the period we had a week or so ago.

[iluvsnow]

3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

euro now has our coldest temps coming in only at around -3 or 4.   zzzzzzzzzzzz   what an absolute overhyped joke this is turning out to be, this may not even end up as cold as the period we had a week or so ago.

But...."We'll always have Paris".....I mean the Euro run from a week and a half ago showing 27 inches of snow on the ground and minus -20's. Digital winter...the only kind we ever get in Ohio!

[buckeye]

Just now, iluvsnow said:

But...."We'll always have Paris".....I mean the Euro run from a week and a half ago showing 27 inches of snow on the ground and minus -20's. Digital winter...the only kind we ever get in Ohio!

It kind of kills all the hype about comparisons to the great MW outbreaks, when it can't even penetrate south of i-80?   It looks like record breaking coverage will be limited to the immediate great lakes area.

[dilly84]

Am I missing something? Went to two places in Knox county and both places heard someone saying we are getting an ice storm tomorrow. Like what weather are you all watching lol

[dilly84]

26 minutes ago, buckeye said:

euro now has our coldest temps coming in only at around -3 or 4.   zzzzzzzzzzzz   what an absolute overhyped joke this is turning out to be, this may not even end up as cold as the period we had a week or so ago.

Only 1 model. Most still show near -15 and lower. After the euros recent swing and misses I have about as much faith in it as I do the icon.

[buckeye]

27 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Only 1 model. Most still show near -15 and lower. After the euros recent swing and misses I have about as much faith in it as I do the icon.

Going to be very difficult to get lower than-10 without snow cover.

[dilly84]

14 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Going to be very difficult to get lower than-10 without snow cover.

Its Ohio. It won't be surprising for our snow to melt and then have -40 windchills lol

[jbcmh81]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Going to be very difficult to get lower than-10 without snow cover.

This.  The wind chills will be nasty for a time, but those don't go into the record books.  No one remembers how low wind chills were in 1994.  They remember the actual temperature was between -20 and -35 across the state.

This reminds me a lot of early February 1996.  That was a historic arctic outbreak for the upper Lakes, but barely penetrated south of 80.  Highs in the high single digits, lows around 0 to a few degrees below zero in Columbus with some lower wind chills.  Cold but nothing to write home about.  The front also came through bone dry with just some flurries, and there was no snow on the ground at all.  So yeah, looking like a good match.  At least that winter had plenty of snow action. 

[jbcmh81]

Winter weather advisory for maybe an inch or less tomorrow night.  lol.  Going big this season.

[dilly84]

Ontario currently. What might have been lol.