dilly84 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 18 minutes ago, buckeye said: Hope the gfs is wrong....that would be a really insulting way to usher in a record cold outbreak. Would think with the small Saturday clipper some cold would be in place, but who knows anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 FWIW, FV3 still south. I haven't been checking, is the GFS the only model showing this far north solution? The euro looks like weak sauce and south. *Edit* 18z NAM looks like the last panel is heading in the right direction for us. Again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: At least it's still 4 or so days out. Lots of time for adjustments. True, ....plus after this past weekend it's clear that model solutions can definitely change once the energy is sampled. ( I use to think that was just weenie desperation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, buckeye said: True, ....plus after this past weekend it's clear that model solutions can definitely change once the energy is sampled. ( I use to think that was just weenie desperation). The sampling thing has some validity but it can be overblown. You're not going to suddenly see a storm go from hitting Wisconsin/Michigan to hitting Kentucky, but changes can and do occur (and they are really significant if you are near a gradient!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The sampling thing has some validity but it can be overblown. You're not going to suddenly see a storm go from hitting Wisconsin/Michigan to hitting Kentucky, but changes can and do occur (and they are really significant if you are near a gradient!). Yea, this one favors north, and warm air being drawn up,in front.... but hopefully not as snowless and rainy as the gfs is showing. Euro OP at least shows how we can still score down here even with rain being part of the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Waving white flag for Monday I believe outside of an inch or 2. Hope for a shift south but models are pretty consistent on snow being north of 30, outside of the euro which essentially still only gives a couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: UKMET develops a storm between 168-180 hours. In la la range, but may be more realistic than the GFS's stuff. One heck of a blowoff of the ssw February 1-2 if that comes to pass. 168-180 ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 14 minutes ago, Stebo said: 168-180 ukmet? He is either extrapolating or has top secret access. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 25 minutes ago, Hoosier said: He is either extrapolating or has top secret access. Yeah I was going to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Euro isn't bad. It has a different way of giving us snow. Sends the clipper from Chicago to Detroit with not much precip at all for us from the actual low. But then develops a low on the front that goes from AL to KY, which is how we get our snow. Something to watch for in future runs. We might actually be better off with a further north low to allow enough space and timing for a scenario like that to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 hours ago, buckeye said: Euro isn't bad. It has a different way of giving us snow. Sends the clipper from Chicago to Detroit with not much precip at all for us from the actual low. But then develops a low on the front that goes from AL to KY, which is how we get our snow. Something to watch for in future runs. We might actually be better off with a further north low to allow enough space and timing for a scenario like that to play out. Yea, that may be out best shot before we go bitterly cold and dry. Wasn't the GFS trying to this as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Not sure what to think anymore!!! My WeatherBug forecast has a high of 29 Monday with snow ...but then I heard a local forecast on the radio that says high of 39 on Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, vespasian70 said: Yea, that may be out best shot before we go bitterly cold and dry. Wasn't the GFS trying to this as well? 6z gfs is moving more towards that look, although it's snow is still primarily anafrontal. At 5h the 6z euro and gfs have a similar orientation and shape of the PV but the euro keeps more energy in the sw allowing heights to rise in the east. The gfs bundles most of the energy in the ns and so the precip focus is strictly on the front. It's no longer about rooting for a southern trend to the clipper, (that ship sailed anyways). Now we want the opposite to happen, a further north and weak clipper. The PV diving south through the northern plains will have a better chance to deepen and sharpen the trough with the clipper out of the way. That should slow the front and hopefully gives us a shot of having something spin up it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, buckeye said: 6z gfs is moving more towards that look, although it's snow is still primarily anafrontal. At 5h the 6z euro and gfs have a similar orientation and shape of the PV but the euro keeps more energy in the sw allowing heights to rise in the east. The gfs bundles most of the energy in the ns and so the precip focus is strictly on the front. It's no longer about rooting for a southern trend to the clipper, (that ship sailed anyways). Now we want the opposite to happen, a further north and weak clipper. The PV diving south through the northern plains will have a better chance to deepen and sharpen the trough with the clipper out of the way. That should slow the front and hopefully gives us a shot of having something spin up it. The last panel of the 12z NAM looked very intriguing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, vespasian70 said: The last panel of the 12z NAM looked very intriguing for us. looks similar to the 00z euro. Hopefully trend continues. Our worst case scenario is if things start trending south again with the clipper and we end up back to where we were with a clipper going through northern OH bringing up enough warm air for rain showers and then a windy changeover to snowshowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Icon is close, but it's a much better hit for far eastern OH... low is a little too far east. (that's another possible bad scenario with this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I almost get the feeling that some people are rooting for it get as cold as possible next week. I don't really understand that logic but whatever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: I almost get the feeling that some people are rooting for it get as cold as possible next week. I don't really understand that logic but whatever. Well how many times in your life will you see -50 windchills. Or even -20 air temp in central Ohio lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I almost get the feeling that some people are rooting for it get as cold as possible next week. I don't really understand that logic but whatever. I think it’s all about extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 blech, looks like euro backed off of the frontal wave, (at least for our area), looks like it goes further east. Not really surprised though. As far as the brutal cold outbreak, I'd rather have it with a snow cover....if we're gonna do it, might as well go all out. Bare ground and -10 when it could have been a snowcover and -20 kinda sucks lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 11 minutes ago, buckeye said: blech, looks like euro backed off of the frontal wave, (at least for our area), looks like it goes further east. Not really surprised though. As far as the brutal cold outbreak, I'd rather have it with a snow cover....if we're gonna do it, might as well go all out. Bare ground and -10 when it could have been a snowcover and -20 kinda sucks lol. Understandable, but personally, any number with a minus in front of it sucks. I'm not a heat miser, but am a not-freeze-my-arse-off-miser. I'd rather have 25° and a solid snow cover. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 looks like we're back to the good ole indy-cmh screw zone. I guess the only good news is that's probably about the worse case scenario for us.... and being 4 days out it can only change for the better? right? maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, IWXwx said: Understandable, but personally, any number with a minus in front of it sucks. I'm not a heat miser, but am a not-freeze-my-arse-off-miser. I'd rather have 25° and a solid snow cover. I'm pretty much on your page. I also would take mid 20's and solid snowcover over record cold and bare ground everytime. But if we're gonna be miserable, maybe we can knock out a record or two doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Looks like the 12z GFS screw hole. Only bigger lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 The Clipper Train bound for central Ohio has derailed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: The Clipper Train bound for central Ohio has derailed!! yep... ....have no doubt, big dog first week of April...that's how we roll in Cbus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: yep... ....have no doubt, big dog first week of April...that's how we roll in Cbus I know! So true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 You know you're winter sucks when you can't even get a clipper to go your way!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Angrysummons said: I agree. I really thought this would move south, but the back building as usual organized the heights. Its gonna cut. Funny watching the I-80 establishment sweat it out for a change. No way it gets that cold here without a sturdy snow pack. Last years early January cold blast was pretty impressive but actual clippers had created a snow pack and excellent cooling. If the pattern collapses and February sucks, this will go down as one of the most disappointing winters in the last 10 years. Basically a week of good snows and then poo in the face outside some mood snows that add up to 1.5 inches that melt down. I am hoping this ain't it. The OV deserves a bigger 10-15 wide inch storm again. I am glad to get my 8 incher, but the lusts remain. Your right. It’s do or die for these next few clippers, and for the airmass to settle in behind them. The EPO looks to relax in February, possibly leading to more mild pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Snow moving into my area rn. Doesn't look too heavy. Maybe an inch if I'm lucky. Headed for Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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