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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

True, ....plus after this past weekend it's clear that model solutions can definitely change once the energy is sampled.  ( I use to think that was just weenie desperation).

The sampling thing has some validity but it can be overblown.  You're not going to suddenly see a storm go from hitting Wisconsin/Michigan to hitting Kentucky, but changes can and do occur (and they are really significant if you are near a gradient!). 

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The sampling thing has some validity but it can be overblown.  You're not going to suddenly see a storm go from hitting Wisconsin/Michigan to hitting Kentucky, but changes can and do occur (and they are really significant if you are near a gradient!). 

Yea, this one favors north, and warm air being drawn up,in front.... but hopefully not as snowless and rainy as the gfs is showing.   Euro OP at least shows how we can still score down here even with  rain being part of the mix.  

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Euro isn't bad.  It has a different way of giving us snow.  Sends the clipper from Chicago to Detroit with not much precip at all for us from the actual low.  But then develops a low on the front that goes from AL to KY, which is how we get our snow. 

Something to watch for in future runs.  We might actually be better off with a further north low to allow enough space and timing for a scenario like that to play out.

Snip-it_1548405650910.jpg

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4 hours ago, buckeye said:

Euro isn't bad.  It has a different way of giving us snow.  Sends the clipper from Chicago to Detroit with not much precip at all for us from the actual low.  But then develops a low on the front that goes from AL to KY, which is how we get our snow. 

Something to watch for in future runs.  We might actually be better off with a further north low to allow enough space and timing for a scenario like that to play out.

Snip-it_1548405650910.jpg

Yea, that may be out best shot before we go bitterly cold and dry. Wasn't the GFS trying to this as well?

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1 hour ago, vespasian70 said:

Yea, that may be out best shot before we go bitterly cold and dry. Wasn't the GFS trying to this as well?

6z gfs is moving more towards that look, although it's snow is still primarily anafrontal.    At 5h the 6z euro and gfs have a similar orientation and shape of the PV but the euro keeps more energy in the sw allowing heights to rise in the east.   The gfs bundles most of the energy in the ns and so the precip focus is strictly on the front. 

It's no longer about rooting for a southern trend to the clipper, (that ship sailed anyways).  Now we want the opposite to happen, a further north and weak clipper.  The PV diving south through the northern plains will have a better chance to deepen and sharpen the trough with the clipper out of the way.   That should slow the front and hopefully gives us a shot of having something spin up it.

gfs.JPG

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

6z gfs is moving more towards that look, although it's snow is still primarily anafrontal.    At 5h the 6z euro and gfs have a similar orientation and shape of the PV but the euro keeps more energy in the sw allowing heights to rise in the east.   The gfs bundles most of the energy in the ns and so the precip focus is strictly on the front. 

It's no longer about rooting for a southern trend to the clipper, (that ship sailed anyways).  Now we want the opposite to happen, a further north and weak clipper.  The PV diving south through the northern plains will have a better chance to deepen and sharpen the trough with the clipper out of the way.   That should slow the front and hopefully gives us a shot of having something spin up it.

gfs.JPG

The last panel of the 12z NAM looked very intriguing for us.

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Just now, vespasian70 said:

The last panel of the 12z NAM looked very intriguing for us.

looks similar to the 00z euro.    Hopefully trend continues.   Our worst case scenario is if things start trending south again with the clipper and we end up back to where we were with a clipper going through northern OH bringing up enough warm air for rain showers and then a windy changeover to snowshowers.

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Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I almost get the feeling that some people are rooting for it get as cold as possible next week. I don't really understand that logic but whatever.

Well how many times in your life will you see -50 windchills. Or even -20 air temp in central Ohio lol

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blech,

looks like euro backed off of the frontal wave, (at least for our area), looks like it goes further east.   Not really surprised though.

As far as the brutal cold outbreak, I'd rather have it with a snow cover....if we're gonna do it, might as well go all out.   Bare ground and -10 when it could have been a snowcover and -20 kinda sucks lol.   

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11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

blech,

looks like euro backed off of the frontal wave, (at least for our area), looks like it goes further east.   Not really surprised though.

As far as the brutal cold outbreak, I'd rather have it with a snow cover....if we're gonna do it, might as well go all out.   Bare ground and -10 when it could have been a snowcover and -20 kinda sucks lol.   

Understandable, but personally, any number with a minus in front of it sucks. I'm not a heat miser, but am a not-freeze-my-arse-off-miser. I'd rather have 25° and a solid snow cover.

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Just now, IWXwx said:

Understandable, but personally, any number with a minus in front of it sucks. I'm not a heat miser, but am a not-freeze-my-arse-off-miser. I'd rather have 25° and a solid snow cover.

I'm pretty much on your page.   I also would take mid 20's and solid snowcover over record cold and bare ground everytime.   But if we're gonna be miserable, maybe we can knock out a record or two doing it.

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1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

I agree. I really thought this would move south, but the back building as usual organized the heights. Its gonna cut. Funny watching the I-80 establishment sweat it out for a change. No way it gets that cold here without a sturdy snow pack. Last years early January cold blast was pretty impressive but actual clippers had created a snow pack and excellent cooling.

If the pattern collapses and February sucks, this will go down as one of the most disappointing winters in the last 10 years. Basically a week of good snows and then poo in the face outside some mood snows that add up to 1.5 inches that melt down. I am hoping this ain't it. The OV deserves a bigger 10-15 wide inch storm again. I am glad to get my 8 incher, but the lusts remain.

 

Your right. It’s do or die for these next few clippers, and for the airmass to settle in behind them. The EPO looks to relax in February, possibly leading to more mild pattern. 

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