vespasian70 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 19 minutes ago, buckeye said: Both the 18zgfs, and fv3 both trended significantly south with the monday clipper. Euro is still north but I bet it also comes south. It would be unusual for such a strong clipper to go through northern OH, especially this time of year with the PV so far south. Isn't the Euro showing a couple of inches for CMH tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Holy God. What a clipper on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 15 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Holy God. What a clipper on monday. A clipper on steroids! Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, vespasian70 said: A clipper on steroids! Wow. Why do these model forecast these outrageous snow amounts anymore? Buckeye, do you have that 25" of snow otg yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 hours ago, chuckster2012 said: Why do these model forecast these outrageous snow amounts anymore? Buckeye, do you have that 25" of snow otg yet? no, but in fairness euro still has til monday to verify In the meantime, that monday clipper jumped pretty far north on the modeling overnight Still time to change, especially considering there are two smaller back to back systems in front of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 gfs and gem still north with the mon clipper. A lot depends on the orientation and how the PV rotates as the storm rides around the edge out of the north central states. Still a lot could change in 5 days, and the old 'bullseye' rule applies. That's one hell of a brutal air mass on it's heels. I'm having a hard time believing it's going to cut up towards north east OH with that air mass.... but of course that's probably the weenie in me talking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, buckeye said: gfs and gem still north with the mon clipper. A lot depends on the orientation and how the PV rotates as the storm rides around the edge out of the north central states. Still a lot could change in 5 days, and the old 'bullseye' rule applies. That's one hell of a brutal air mass on it's heels. I'm having a hard time believing it's going to cut up towards north east OH with that air mass.... but of course that's probably the weenie in me talking. I wouldn't want to be in the bullseye 5 or 6 days out. The track will move ... no place for it to go but south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Angrysummons said: Any model that shows that kind of "cold air" on a decaying ssw is a idiot. But that is the way the ops work nowadays. It will be gone soon enough. so you're not buying next weeks widespread double digit below zero readings across the forum? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Well it took us all winter to get it.... and in one day our snowpack is all but gone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 The FV3 looks much more realistic with the Monday clipper in terms of track and strength and gives us a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, JayPSU said: The FV3 looks much more realistic with the Monday clipper in terms of track and strength and gives us a decent event. Euro gives us a couple of inches about an inch tonight? Also, it give us a few inches wrt Monday's clipper, mostly as a result of a 'wavy' front once the clipper goes north. Something that could evolve better for us. Also fwiw, gefs is much further south than the op. Definitely a 'trackable' event. Hopefully if we are going to get the brutal cold being advertised, we can get at least a few inches of snowcover down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 57 minutes ago, JayPSU said: The FV3 looks much more realistic with the Monday clipper in terms of track and strength and gives us a decent event. Euro north again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, pondo1000 said: Euro north again actually think the evolution is better than 00z. Has more emphasis on moisture along, behind the front. That would be like a brief period of rain and mix followed by a nice thump to bring in the arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Where would the snow for tonight come from?? I see no backend snow on radar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: actually think the evolution is better than 00z. Has more emphasis on moisture along, behind the front. That would be like a brief period of rain and mix followed by a nice thump to bring in the arctic air. Yeah, but rather it be south. Someone north of that track is going to get creamed. Pretty strong Low depicted as well which I guess is why it’s so north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Yeah, but rather it be south. Someone north of that track is going to get creamed. Pretty strong Low depicted as well which I guess is why it’s so north? I'm ok where we are right now as depicted. I could see this trend more favorably, not just in terms of the track, but how it all comes together with the potential for something stronger on the font, south of us. I could be wrong but I don't see this as a straight rain, to backlash flurries event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 30 minutes ago, Steve said: Where would the snow for tonight come from?? I see no backend snow on radar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 HRRR fairly 'bullish' (relatively speaking) for tonight's changeover. Shows changeover starting around 10 or 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, buckeye said: HRRR fairly 'bullish' (relatively speaking) for tonight's changeover. Shows changeover starting around 10 or 11pm These never seem to pan out so that would be a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 HRRR is still playing up tonight's backend snow. Current radar isn't having any of it. We shall see ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 20 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: HRRR is still playing up tonight's backend snow. Current radar isn't having any of it. We shall see ... Temps dropping too slow aloft, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 00z Euro took the clipper early next week south. Not as strong as previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 06z FV3 more robust hit for OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 55 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: 06z FV3 more robust hit for OH. GFS did come south a bit from 00z... but it's still way north of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 10 minutes ago, buckeye said: GFS did come south a bit from 00z... but it's still way north of the euro. Euro really weakened it too as it comes east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Picked up around an inch this morning. Nice to see the ground white again! Hopefully more to come before the polar hammer comes down next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Stronger and further displaced High in southern Canada pushing the Mon-Tues clipper closer to us on the GFS. Similar to the Euro, but stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye1994 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Something else we have to worry about for middle of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Hope the gfs is wrong....that would be a really insulting way to usher in a record cold outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, buckeye said: Hope the gfs is wrong....that would be a really insulting way to usher in a record cold outbreak. At least it's still 4 or so days out. Lots of time for adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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