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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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19 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Both the 18zgfs, and fv3 both trended significantly south with the monday clipper.  Euro is still north but I bet it also comes south.   It would be unusual for such a strong clipper to go through northern OH, especially this time of year with the PV so far south.

 

Isn't the Euro showing a couple of inches for CMH tomorrow night?

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4 hours ago, chuckster2012 said:

Why do these model forecast these outrageous snow amounts anymore? Buckeye, do you have that 25" of snow otg yet?

no, but in fairness euro still has til monday to verify :P

In the meantime, that monday clipper jumped pretty far north on the modeling overnight :thumbsdown:

Still time to change, especially considering there are two smaller back to back systems in front of it.   

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gfs and gem still north with the mon clipper.   A lot depends on the orientation and how the PV rotates as the storm rides around the edge out of the north central states.  Still a lot could change in 5 days, and the old 'bullseye' rule applies.   That's one hell of a brutal air mass on it's heels.   I'm having a hard time believing it's going to cut up towards north east OH with that air mass....  but of course that's probably the weenie in me talking.:weenie:

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11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

gfs and gem still north with the mon clipper.   A lot depends on the orientation and how the PV rotates as the storm rides around the edge out of the north central states.  Still a lot could change in 5 days, and the old 'bullseye' rule applies.   That's one hell of a brutal air mass on it's heels.   I'm having a hard time believing it's going to cut up towards north east OH with that air mass....  but of course that's probably the weenie in me talking.:weenie:

I wouldn't want to be in the bullseye 5 or 6 days out. The track will move ... no place for it to go but south. :weenie:

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1 hour ago, JayPSU said:

The FV3 looks much more realistic with the Monday clipper in terms of track and strength and gives us a decent event.

Euro gives us a couple of inches about an inch tonight?   Also, it give us a few inches wrt Monday's clipper, mostly as a result of a 'wavy' front once the clipper goes north.

Something that could evolve better for us.   Also fwiw, gefs is much further south than the op.  Definitely a 'trackable' event.   Hopefully if we are going to get the brutal cold being advertised, we can get at least a few inches of snowcover down.

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3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

actually think the evolution is better than 00z.   Has more emphasis on moisture along, behind the front.   That would be like a brief period of rain and mix followed by a nice thump to bring in the arctic air.

Yeah, but rather it be south. Someone north of that track is going to get creamed. Pretty strong Low depicted as well which I guess is why it’s so north?

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2 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Yeah, but rather it be south. Someone north of that track is going to get creamed. Pretty strong Low depicted as well which I guess is why it’s so north?

I'm ok where we are right now as depicted.  I could see this trend more favorably, not just in terms of the track, but how it all comes together with the potential for something stronger on the font, south of us.   I could be wrong but I don't see this as a straight rain, to backlash flurries event.   

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