vespasian70 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 The end result of a week's worth of tracking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye1994 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 As of right now, looks as if some back end snow for the storm system this week might drop (Trace-1/2inch) of snow on the central Miami Valley with a 2-4 inch Clipper System to watch this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Buckeye1994 said: As of right now, looks as if some back end snow for the storm system this week might drop (Trace-1/2inch) of snow on the central Miami Valley with a 2-4 inch Clipper System to watch this weekend. Keep in mind clippers typically overperform for us in Ohio. Temps look to be low teens so 15/20:1 ratios would be likely. Long ways out but something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 4 hours ago, vespasian70 said: The end result of a week's worth of tracking. Indy area surprises me, I was under the impression that they got slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 another time frame to watch for is day 7-9. No specific storm on any of the ops but the upper air pattern is explosive. A strong piece of energy rotating south around the PV while the southern stream tries to develop a strong system in the gulf. If those phase, and it's at the right time, that would be a monster somewhere east of the miss. and it would probably drive the pv further south. I'll be curious to see the euro ens. GEFS has a few biggies. (one shows a 962 low driving north into southeastern OH). That's amazingly close to what the '78 featured. Icon showed something close last night. The low in the gulf is 990, which is pretty incredible for this time of year. Blizz of 78 and superstorm 93 both had similar set ups, but timing differences with the phase. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Hi all, was out of town since last Thurs in the middle of Hocking Hills for the annual winter hike, got drowned during the hike Sat temps hit mid 40s, we never saw the change over there until about midnight then got pounded. Looked like 6" fell in about 3 hours and our cabin was tucked down in a valley were we had very little wind, we have a toboggan run of a driveway so it was mid afternoon before we got out of there yesterday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, buckeye said: another time frame to watch for is day 7-9. No specific storm on any of the ops but the upper air pattern is explosive. A strong piece of energy rotating south around the PV while the southern stream tries to develop a strong system in the gulf. If those phase, and it's at the right time, that would be a monster somewhere east of the miss. and it would probably drive the pv further south. I'll be curious to see the euro ens. GEFS has a few biggies. (one shows a 962 low driving north into southeastern OH). That's amazingly close to what the '78 featured. Icon showed something close last night. The low in the gulf is 990, which is pretty incredible for this time of year. Blizz of 78 and superstorm 93 both had similar set ups, but timing differences with the phase. Ya know I seen that on the gefs, but figured it was a blip. Curious how often a member shows something that low.. any idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 39 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Ya know I seen that on the gefs, but figured it was a blip. Curious how often a member shows something that low.. any idea? supposedly 990 would be the lowest mslp in the gulf (in winter) since March 93. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, buckeye said: supposedly 990 would be the lowest mslp in the gulf (in winter) since March 93. I'm just curious how often one of the gefs members shows such a strong low. Is it often it shows something like that? I dont recall seeing it, but I dont really look at every single individual member usually either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, dilly84 said: I'm just curious how often one of the gefs members shows such a strong low. Is it often it shows something like that? I dont recall seeing it, but I dont really look at every single individual member usually either. 2 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: During the last system, several members would show huge runs in the 144+ time frame. It is not that unusual. Low 960s is pretty uncommon,,even on rogue ensemble runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 45 minutes ago, buckeye said: Low 960s is pretty uncommon,,even on rogue ensemble runs. At least at that LAT it surely is. What run of the GEFS are you talking, 21/12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: At least at that LAT it surely is. What run of the GEFS are you talking, 21/12z? 12z. Here ya go. And just for fun, because we'll likely never see that happen, here's the snow map for it as well lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 For more fun, euro had a 977 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, dilly84 said: For more fun, euro had a 977 too. And day number what is this again, 9? Man, could you even imagine? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, pondo1000 said: And day number what is this again, 9? Man, could you even imagine? Day 7. And no. I couldn't imagine. Itd be 25" of snow with 65 mph winds lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 00z Gfs shows nothing of the sort now on day 7. A real sh*t run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: 00z Gfs shows nothing of the sort now on day 7. A real sh*t run... It was in the gefs not OP run. And the gefs has several members with sub 990 lows near ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 00z FV3 showing a decent clipper a week from now. Pattern still looks active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 19 minutes ago, dilly84 said: It was in the gefs not OP run. And the gefs has several members with sub 990 lows near ohio It still shows it? Op run shows no low anywhere near Ohio. You'd think that a low that strong would show up on nearly all the models at 192 hours.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, chuckster2012 said: It still shows it? Op run shows no low anywhere near Ohio. You'd think that a low that strong would show up on nearly all the models at 192 hours.. No because its only a few panels that show a strong low. Only one that shows it. And it kinda does show it. But it's off the coast. Gets down to 977 I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Yeah, I see it on the east coast. I guess there's still time for some changes. They'll have to be major though and appear in next day or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: Yeah, I see it on the east coast. I guess there's still time for some changes. They'll have to be major though and appear in next day or so.. It was just 1 panel of 53 lol. I wouldn't hold my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Looks like some nickle and dime'n over the next week -I'd still keep an eye out for some backside lov'n, (no sexual inuendo intended), possibly thursday night. Wouldn't be surprised to see that come a little further west. Wouldn't be a biggie, but might be good enough to cover the grass back up after we lose the snow cover from the rain. -Then a possible weak system over the weekend, (ggem most bullish on that one) -Then a stronger clipper Monday timeframe, (models want to take that north of us but should watch for a south trend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 9 hours ago, buckeye said: I'd still keep an eye out for some backside lov'n, (no sexual inuendo intended), possibly thursday night. Wouldn't be surprised to see that come a little further west. Wouldn't be a biggie, but might be good enough to cover the grass back up after we lose the snow cover from the rain. Looks like WPC agrees with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye1994 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 18z GFS. 168 hours. Shifted the Monday clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, Buckeye1994 said: 18z GFS. 168 hours. Shifted the Monday clipper Hopefully a trend! I find that clippers develop quite nicely as we get closer to the event. All aboard the clipper train! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 FWIW regarding the backend snow event tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, vespasian70 said: Hopefully a trend! I find that clippers develop quite nicely as we get closer to the event. All aboard the clipper train! I’ve been touting this for years now. Give me a clipper w/ high ratios any day. Beats holding your breath on the rain/snow line all day like this past Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 40 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: I’ve been touting this for years now. Give me a clipper w/ high ratios any day. Beats holding your breath on the rain/snow line all day like this past Saturday! Both the 18zgfs, and fv3 both trended significantly south with the monday clipper. Euro is still north but I bet it also comes south. It would be unusual for such a strong clipper to go through northern OH, especially this time of year with the PV so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, buckeye said: Both the 18zgfs, and fv3 both trended significantly south with the monday clipper. Euro is still north but I bet it also comes south. It would be unusual for such a strong clipper to go through northern OH, especially this time of year with the PV so far south. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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