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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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6 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Improvement on the new HRRR.

 

I need help.  :lightning:

looks like the change back over from rain to sleet to snow is between 9 and 10.....  then it's out of here around 3am and manages to dump around 5 or 6 inches, (roughly), in that short time.    That would be a hefty dump in short time, not totally unheard of though.

of course that's taking the HRRR pretty much at face value....  that'll change again next hour.   

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Just now, buckeye said:

12z euro is still giv'n CMH love.

It kind of matches the timing of the HRRR I described above.   Pretty much 7-8" across all of Franklin County in the overnight.

Now it’s just time to watch the upper level freezing lines creep south.   I suspect they won’t move much until the low moves south and then there will be a rapid switchover.  All depends on timing.  The earlier the better, obviously. 

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1 minute ago, jbcmh81 said:

Now it’s just time to watch the upper level freezing lines creep south.   I suspect they won’t move much until the low moves south and then there will be a rapid switchover.  All depends on timing.  The earlier the better, obviously. 

Yep timing is everything.   But the euro as well as some of the mesos are signaling a short but intense snowstorm tonight.  

another sleepless night....

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This system is over I have a feeling. Radar showing me snow which is obviously not accurate now... newest hrrr has the heaviest band through Mansfield now. Has me in Knox freezing rain through 13hrs. With around a 2hr quickie on the back end. Sometimes I hate tracking storms. Makes me sick.

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2 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

This system is over I have a feeling. Radar showing me snow which is obviously not accurate now... newest hrrr has the heaviest band through Mansfield now. Has me in Knox freezing rain through 13hrs. With around a 2hr quickie on the back end. Sometimes I hate tracking storms. Makes me sick.

:cliff:

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6 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

This system is over I have a feeling. Radar showing me snow which is obviously not accurate now... newest hrrr has the heaviest band through Mansfield now. Has me in Knox freezing rain through 13hrs. With around a 2hr quickie on the back end. Sometimes I hate tracking storms. Makes me sick.

The majority of our snow is projected to be from the  deform ban that develops as the low rides to the southeast of us.   Today would have been icing on the cake had we been able to hold the upper level temps colder.    Yes, that failed, but it doesn't mean tonight fails.    The HRRR will change every hour...as it's supposed to.   You're in a better spot than most of us anyways.

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3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

The majority of our snow is projected to be from the  deform ban that develops as the low rides to the southeast of us.   Today would have been icing on the cake had we been able to hold the upper level temps colder.    Yes, that failed, but it doesn't mean tonight fails.    The HRRR will change every hour...as it's supposed to.   You're in a better spot than most of us anyways.

The issue is, I'm even nearly 40 miles north and it's this here as well.

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3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I'm at my office in Lewis Center....small world.   Moderate rain but it's that kind of rain that when hits the windshield you can tell it's partial ice.

I'm working from my home office (my real office is at Polaris but decided to work from home).  To be fair, I'm just looking out the window - haven't been outside yet although may go out to try to start the snowblower, which crapped out on me last week. 

Where in LC?  I'm up in Orange Twp just to the west of the park. 

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1 minute ago, dilly84 said:

The issue is, I'm even nearly 40 miles north and it's this here as well.

I know what you're saying.  Models over did the se push of the upper cold today....by quite a bit, (which surprised me too), often the opposite happens.  But that shouldn't have a major effect on what happens tonight.    Euro has you at 10-11" after the changeover.   Hell, cut the euro numbers in half....that's still 5-6 for you and around 4" for us.... plus it'll come in with high winds and heavy rates, my favorite kind of snow:).

could it fail still?......absolutely, but I sure didn't put all this tracking time into this storm so I can walk away at halftime.

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6 minutes ago, Crowbar said:

I'm working from my home office (my real office is at Polaris but decided to work from home).  To be fair, I'm just looking out the window - haven't been outside yet although may go out to try to start the snowblower, which crapped out on me last week. 

Where in LC?  I'm up in Orange Twp just to the west of the park. 

office park at 23 and powell

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