buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, JayPSU said: Yes and no. I think we’re closing in on a scenario where we have two parts. The first part during the day looks like it will be a mixed bag with not much accumulation. Then in the evening as the cold air rushes in and we get a deform band, we get a good thumping. Good point. The first is associated with waa, then like you said, the deform when the low passes underneath. March08 was a 2 parter as well. Snowed all day Friday then a several hour lull in the evening before it hammered again. That was the portion they hoisted blizz warnings for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, snowlover2 said: Almost all of that comes from 7pm on when the cold air crashes in and the crushing deform band sets up. This seems to be the lesson of tonight’s models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Gfs has the app runner next week similar to the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 33 minutes ago, buckeye said: Gfs has the app runner next week similar to the euro The GEM has a version of it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Fv3 spitting out 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 So this is how the hrrr sees it using Franklin county. - snow arrives around 9am - mixes changes to plain rain around 11 up to the Delaware county line. - rains for about 6 hours and Dilly cancels the rest of winter and Pondo threatens to move back to philly () - around 5pm rain transitions quickly from sleet to snow and hammer time from 6pm on. It'll be interesting to see how this all unfolds. I think low end is 4" high end is 12". Would not be surprised if someone goes under a blizzard warning tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 26 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Fv3 spitting out 20" Crazy model ranges for only 12hr out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Southern convection I tell ya. Some of the models leave the china on the table some don't when the table cloth is pulled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Well just wasted a whole week tracking a rain storm. Hope you guys get a good thump because it's looking bleak here in PGH. I feel your pain here in indy. I mean just look at the NAM it literally has heavy snow just north and south and east of here. It's like the ultimate soul crushing dry slot from central Illinois to where I'm at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Euro still thumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 39 minutes ago, buckeye said: So this is how the hrrr sees it using Franklin county. - snow arrives around 9am - mixes changes to plain rain around 11 up to the Delaware county line. - rains for about 6 hours and Dilly cancels the rest of winter and Pondo threatens to move back to philly () - around 5pm rain transitions quickly from sleet to snow and hammer time from 6pm on. It'll be interesting to see how this all unfolds. I think low end is 4" high end is 12". Would not be surprised if someone goes under a blizzard warning tomorrow night. No way this is accurate low is all the way I'm Tennessee and has not just a mix but rain all the way to i70. This would go down as the biggest bust ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 34 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Euro still thumps. What is euro showing for Dayton Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Pressure drops and surface wind direction looks like low center is on Ark.- MO. border and is moving up the Ohio River! I sure hope that's not the case! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, Aallen said: What is euro showing for Dayton Ohio? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Most models had temps in the high 20s to start today, but all 4 reporting airports in Franklin County are between 31 and 33. The HRRR is picking up on that and brings in quite a bit of pure rain at 38F during the afternoon. No other model had CMH topping 33 (maybe 34). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Soooooooo....Looks like sleet and rain will be a bigger ingredient than we thought... (If you choose to believe the models now). Euro shaved off about 3", assuming that's all snow to begin with. I didn't even look at the other ones. HRRR is a hot mess trying to figure out what's falling when and where... As Jay mentioned, any appreciable snow will be dependent on the deform band this evening and we hope for a surprise. So in other words, everything's on track for another typical central Ohio winter'storm'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, osubrett2 said: Most models had temps in the high 20s to start today, but all 4 reporting airports in Franklin County are between 31 and 33. The HRRR is picking up on that and brings in quite a bit of pure rain at 38F during the afternoon. No other model had CMH topping 33 (maybe 34). Looks like the HP/cold press isn't as bully as projected. SLP track still looks the same though. More often than not the cold presses more than forecasted...doesnt look like it this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 hours ago, buckeye said: So this is how the hrrr sees it using Franklin county. - snow arrives around 9am - mixes changes to plain rain around 11 up to the Delaware county line. - rains for about 6 hours and Dilly cancels the rest of winter and Pondo threatens to move back to philly () - around 5pm rain transitions quickly from sleet to snow and hammer time from 6pm on. It'll be interesting to see how this all unfolds. I think low end is 4" high end is 12". Would not be surprised if someone goes under a blizzard warning tomorrow night. Hah, yup!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Crazy shift the last 24 hours. Went from less than an inch to maybe 8 depending on where the defo band sets up.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11z hrrr 850 temps never go above zero except extreme south franklin county but 2m temps get to near 40. Sigh.. but still showing a decent snow. I dont know what to make of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, dilly84 said: 11z hrrr 850 temps never go above zero except extreme south franklin county but 2m temps get to near 40. Sigh.. but still showing a decent snow. I dont know what to make of it. That map is unreal. 12" in the extreme w. Part of Franklin county ....0 in extreme southeast county Part of me almost wants to see something that crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: That map is unreal. 12" in the extreme w. Part of Franklin county ....0 in extreme southeast county Part of me almost wants to see something that crazy I remember hearing someone say "If you can smell the rain, you'll get the heavy snow" Seems to be the case in Franklin County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: That map is unreal. 12" in the extreme w. Part of Franklin county ....0 in extreme southeast county Part of me almost wants to see something that crazy But I can't make sense of the model. Explain it to me.. 850s and even 750s never go above freezing but has you getting to near 38 at the surface. But during that time the ptype map shows snow. Idk heavy snow with higher temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Frog Town said: I remember hearing someone say "If you can smell the rain, you'll get the heavy snow" Seems to be the case in Franklin County. I think perhaps this time around "If you can smell the rain, you'll get heavy rain". Today will be wet and we await the change over this evening. Hopefully salvage a few inches from it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Weather channel has Columbus getting mix today no accumulations but snow tonight with 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, dilly84 said: But I can't make sense of the model. Explain it to me.. 850s and even 750s never go above freezing but has you getting to near 38 at the surface. But during that time the ptype map shows snow. Idk heavy snow with higher temps? I looked at the ncep site and it looks like the 850s get north of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Im afraid all this rain is gonna make roads a nightmare later. 33 and rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 I think if you smell the rain... the bust is near!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: I looked at the ncep site and it looks like the 850s get north of us Gets to Franklin county but until hr 11 it never goes above i70 before hour 12.. Then it goes above for a brief time. Makes little sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The only saving grace is if temps go above freezing today we won't accumulate a lot of fzra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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