Let's Talk Winter!!

[JayPSU]

Just now, jbcmh81 said:

You're all screwed, that's the superior model. 

LOL...I know it's terrible...I just want complete and total model agreement.  Is that asking too much???  

[Frog Town]

2 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

LOL...I know it's terrible...I just want complete and total model agreement.  Is that asking too much???  

Careful what you wish for, LOL.  That's when you really get screwed.  

[OHweather]

9 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Go big or go home Bam lol.

Ugh 

[Jackstraw]

13 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Go big or go home Bam lol.

Is that where the FV3 lives? lol..

[NTXYankee]

17 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

I think a lot of the public watched the local news say 3" and that's all they're expecting. 

Well at least my trip to the grocery store tonight will be pleasant.

[Crowbar]

22 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Go big or go home Bam lol.

Wow - has me in the 12"+ zone and Columbus in the 8-12" zone.  Local met on the radio is much lower on the totals for the area.  

[snowlover2]

New ILN maps. Much less ice and heaviest snow through I-70.

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, jbcmh81 said:

ILN has 6-10" for Columbus.  Curiously, they also have 8-12" for Madison County.  Not sure how that works. 

That's funny....they must be riding the euro pretty hard because it showed that higher bubble in Madison county too.

[dayton1996]

Iluvsnow and I are buddies, and neighbors (along with HightechEE).  Bellbrook!

Full disclosure:  Despite my solid-citizen-weenie status, I work at WHIO-TV.  I'm in ad sales, but I do have the luxury of spending time in the weather office.  The Mets know I'm a snow weenie, and they enjoy showing me their perspective.

Of course,

I learn so much more coming here.  It's a blast!  Keep up the great posts and commentary.

Looking at the graphics and maps above, my house is right there - where the 8-12" line touches the 6-8" line :-)

 

[hthe620110]

[sojitodd]

Madison County in the crosshairs?-it will never happen!  *Thank God the ice potential is way down though.

[Crowbar]

Marshall McPeak (local Columbus TV met) saying 3-6" in Columbus - FWIW

 

[JayPSU]

18Z GFS absolutely destroys us with the deform band.  Here's hoping!

[JayPSU]

I mean holy hell.  Over a foot.

[Jackstraw]

The GFS has jumped way south and way up with snow totals in the last 24 hrs. The "mystereee" continues.  I'm shutting the model pages off at 00Z.  They're reminding me of the 'ol lady going through the change lol. 

 

*Edited for dyslexia 

[vespasian70]

Wow 18z GFS! What a hit for most of us!

[buckeye]

Pretty cool to have both the euro and gfs giving us 10-15"  less than 24hrs out. March,08 might be the last time I've seen that. 

[OHweather]

Given the aforementioned trend today for slightly lower heights ahead of the storm, allowing for a bit more cold air in front of it (and the likely under-modeling of low-level cold air seeping south) and the trend for a bit more amped/slightly slower vort (undoing some of the negative trends from yesterday) have made changes to my forecast.  The trend for slightly colder air ahead of the storm makes sense given how intense that lobe of the PV is, and the trend for a slightly more amped storm as we approach is typical.  Wouldn't surprise me if the GFS and CMC are still a bit too amped, but the Euro and UK have been rock-solid with their depictions and seem to offer a nice middle ground.  The Euro has once again been the seemingly most consistent model over the last 2-3 days, so we'll see if its forecasts pan out. 

In terms of mixing/ice, the 850mb low track looks to be from about Cincinnati to Zanesville, however, the 700mb low track is well north of the region and there is a modest warm push as high as 700mb, so mixing likely does occur north of the 850mb low track for a time.  This would bring mixing north of I-70.  However, as the low wraps up during the afternoon and 850mb winds turn more E/NE the rain/snow line should shift back south of I-70.  This likely cuts into Columbus's totals some, but it's not as bad as it could be.  South of I-70 where the warm layer aloft will be deep enough for freezing rain instead of sleet, I'm pretty worried about a period of ice accretion.  With brisk NE winds advecting in cool/dry low-level air, am not sure temperatures quickly shoot above freezing in this area as some models show.  It will be kind of marginal for good accretion with heavy precip and borderline temperatures but given a good amount of precip falling as freezing rain in a narrow corridor can't rule out a tenth or two of accretion mainly in parts of SW OH north of the river and south of I-70.  As winds pick up Saturday evening that could be problematic. 

As for snow amounts/placement, strongest mid-level forcing will generally be in central and southern Ohio, though a prolonged favorable dual jet structure and mid-level isentropic lift will allow for an extended period of light to moderate snow in northern Ohio that adds up to a few/several inches with some lake effect snow through Sunday from Mansfield points east.  Two better periods of snow potential...one mid-morning through the afternoon on a push of strong mid-level warm-air advection/isentropic lift beneath the aforementioned upper-jet support and persistent PVA ahead of the shortwave.  There is probably a period in the late afternoon/early evening when the precip shield becomes ragged for a time before a deformation band develops to the SW and moves through.  The slowed nature of the storm on today's models increases the potential for this deform band to affect a good portion of Ohio outside of NW Ohio.  The heaviest snow from the deform band looks to be from SW OH to central to east-central Ohio points east.  The deformation band may be intense as models show intense mid-level frontogenesis on the backside of the storm as arctic air crashes in and deformation, along with strong PVA from the vort max and steepening lapse rates.  The snow could be convective and the lapse rates may be steep enough for thundersnow.  Snow rates of 1-2" per hour are likely.  This feature is rather transient but can drop a fair amount in a short period of time. 

Essentially, given the lower heights ahead of the storm forcing a trough along/just south of the Ohio River did shift the heaviest axis outside of far northern Ohio.  The area that will do best is the area that can cash in on both the morning-afternoon warm-air advection snow ahead of the storm (where it's mainly/all snow and not ice/rain) and that can get in on the heaviest evening deformation snows.  Much of the I-70 corridor sees a mix for a portion of the first round but changes to snow and then gets something from the deform.  Given both rounds (especially the deform) likely feature moderate to heavy rates, did shift 6-10" south to include Columbus and Dayton.  East-central Ohio may see more WAA precip fall as snow and also gets in on the deform, so believed the model consensus of heavier amounts in that area.  I can see how someone farther west sees 10 or 12" too if the snow/ice line can set up a little farther south, perhaps between Dayton and Columbus, but not sure on that.

Far southern Ohio will get hit decently by the deform band and I believe it'll be heavy, so went with decent snows all the way through.  The flash freeze combined with a period of moderate to heavy snow and gusty winds will make for nasty travel in that area Saturday night.

[buckeye]

Great read OH..

...you had me at thunder snow

 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Is the deformation band going to impact Eastern Indiana at all or will it be mainly an Ohio thing ?

[Jackstraw]

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Great read OH..

...you had me at thunder snow

 

Yes been waiting for his post all day.  How longs it been for thunder snow for you?  If I could get in on that it'd be like my 100 year old grandpa gettin' some lol.

[OHweather]

12 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Is the deformation band going to impact Eastern Indiana at all or will it be mainly an Ohio thing ?

It will likely get going over Indiana mid to late afternoon.

[weatherzen]

Great read OH..
...you had me at thunder snow:wub:
 

Thunder snow is my Holy Grail!

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk

[snowlover2]

18z FV3 looks very similar to the OP.

[Jackstraw]

That just chopped me off at the knees

[vespasian70]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Given the aforementioned trend today for slightly lower heights ahead of the storm, allowing for a bit more cold air in front of it (and the likely under-modeling of low-level cold air seeping south) and the trend for a bit more amped/slightly slower vort (undoing some of the negative trends from yesterday) have made changes to my forecast.  The trend for slightly colder air ahead of the storm makes sense given how intense that lobe of the PV is, and the trend for a slightly more amped storm as we approach is typical.  Wouldn't surprise me if the GFS and CMC are still a bit too amped, but the Euro and UK have been rock-solid with their depictions and seem to offer a nice middle ground.  The Euro has once again been the seemingly most consistent model over the last 2-3 days, so we'll see if its forecasts pan out. 

In terms of mixing/ice, the 850mb low track looks to be from about Cincinnati to Zanesville, however, the 700mb low track is well north of the region and there is a modest warm push as high as 700mb, so mixing likely does occur north of the 850mb low track for a time.  This would bring mixing north of I-70.  However, as the low wraps up during the afternoon and 850mb winds turn more E/NE the rain/snow line should shift back south of I-70.  This likely cuts into Columbus's totals some, but it's not as bad as it could be.  South of I-70 where the warm layer aloft will be deep enough for freezing rain instead of sleet, I'm pretty worried about a period of ice accretion.  With brisk NE winds advecting in cool/dry low-level air, am not sure temperatures quickly shoot above freezing in this area as some models show.  It will be kind of marginal for good accretion with heavy precip and borderline temperatures but given a good amount of precip falling as freezing rain in a narrow corridor can't rule out a tenth or two of accretion mainly in parts of SW OH north of the river and south of I-70.  As winds pick up Saturday evening that could be problematic. 

As for snow amounts/placement, strongest mid-level forcing will generally be in central and southern Ohio, though a prolonged favorable dual jet structure and mid-level isentropic lift will allow for an extended period of light to moderate snow in northern Ohio that adds up to a few/several inches with some lake effect snow through Sunday from Mansfield points east.  Two better periods of snow potential...one mid-morning through the afternoon on a push of strong mid-level warm-air advection/isentropic lift beneath the aforementioned upper-jet support and persistent PVA ahead of the shortwave.  There is probably a period in the late afternoon/early evening when the precip shield becomes ragged for a time before a deformation band develops to the SW and moves through.  The slowed nature of the storm on today's models increases the potential for this deform band to affect a good portion of Ohio outside of NW Ohio.  The heaviest snow from the deform band looks to be from SW OH to central to east-central Ohio points east.  The deformation band may be intense as models show intense mid-level frontogenesis on the backside of the storm as arctic air crashes in and deformation, along with strong PVA from the vort max and steepening lapse rates.  The snow could be convective and the lapse rates may be steep enough for thundersnow.  Snow rates of 1-2" per hour are likely.  This feature is rather transient but can drop a fair amount in a short period of time. 

Essentially, given the lower heights ahead of the storm forcing a trough along/just south of the Ohio River did shift the heaviest axis outside of far northern Ohio.  The area that will do best is the area that can cash in on both the morning-afternoon warm-air advection snow ahead of the storm (where it's mainly/all snow and not ice/rain) and that can get in on the heaviest evening deformation snows.  Much of the I-70 corridor sees a mix for a portion of the first round but changes to snow and then gets something from the deform.  Given both rounds (especially the deform) likely feature moderate to heavy rates, did shift 6-10" south to include Columbus and Dayton.  East-central Ohio may see more WAA precip fall as snow and also gets in on the deform, so believed the model consensus of heavier amounts in that area.  I can see how someone farther west sees 10 or 12" too if the snow/ice line can set up a little farther south, perhaps between Dayton and Columbus, but not sure on that.

Far southern Ohio will get hit decently by the deform band and I believe it'll be heavy, so went with decent snows all the way through.  The flash freeze combined with a period of moderate to heavy snow and gusty winds will make for nasty travel in that area Saturday night.

Great write-up as always! Thanks for posting it.

[vespasian70]

WBNS' Eric Elwell per FB has Columbus and Newark in a 8"-12" band. Says he is a bit concerned for icing in parts of southern OH.

[vespasian70]

Just now, vespasian70 said:

WBNS' Eric Elwell per FB has Columbus and Newark in a 8"-12" band. Says he is a bit concerned for icing in parts of southern OH.

Looks like NWS agrees.

 

[Aallen]

awful quiet in here. Any thoughts or predictions?

[snowlover2]

0z NAM is still lost. Low is south and a touch weaker than 12z and yet plain rain all the way to 70.