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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

things definitely look better than they did 24hrs ago, but damn, I'm still not confident at all on a total snow event for CMH area.   Confidence boosted that we'll have a lot more frozen than wet, but per usual we are so damn close to the line it's insane.   

Looping through these runs,  most of them have the 850 line literally lining up along the 40degree lat line which basically cuts through Columbus, for at least a few hours.   I don't think freezing rain is a big threat simply because it's hard to get good accretion with 30 degrees and heavy rain.   Sleet to some degree or another is definitely in the cards though for probably most of Franklin County.

So here's my gut call on this looking back at similar situations and based on years of watching this stuff unfold here.    If we can hold this current look or something razor close to it through 00z, then I think odds favor a good surprise vs. a bad one.    Typically* on close calls like this, (4th and goal ball on the 1" line),  we find away to get it in ugly, whether that may be aided by high precip rates or an underestimated push of cold.   Now if models start going nw, (delay of game call), well you know....

*Typically, but I still wear the scars from Feb 13 2007, a very similar set up.   cue Hoosier in 3...2...1...

 

 

How did 6z Euro compare to 0z?

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16 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

I70 crew cutting it close but what a run. Temps never go above freezing. This is the closest it gets.

gfs_T2m_neus_6.thumb.png.c621bed6f73aee77494b22226e17c2cb.png

that's good but the 2m temp line isn't really going to be our potential problem.  Find that 850 line, that will tell a lot more.   Like I said in the other post, it practically sit on i-70. 

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

very close, I don't think I saw a snowfall output since WB doesn't carry 6z 0r 18z.   I'm thinking if it was further nw it was still in the 'noise' range.   Maybe someone else has that info.  SV snowmaps are horrible

0z was a near blizzard and perfect for us all. 

 

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Just now, buckeye said:

that's good but the 2m temp line isn't really going to be our potential problem.  Find that 850 line, that will tell a lot more.   Like I said in the other post, it practically sit on i-70. 

Did. Very similar spot. Maybe a nudge north. Extreme se Franklin. Coshocton county it's over the eastern half but isnt there for too long.

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

the canadian group, (gem rgem), are probably going to be the nw amped ceiling on runs.  Not too concerned...yet...I think Will(met) over in the NE forum once said he doesn't use the rgem outside of 24 hours.   

 

Not sure why he doesn't. It's the greatest model of all time. I mean it was dead on yesterday bringing the low through central Ohio. 

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Putting this storm aside for a sec...

....there is growing concensus for a storm on most of the models next week, (5-6 days out).  Looks like a possible app runner.  Euro has a monster that crushes seastern OH/WV, GEM is further west, and it looks like the ICON is throwing it's hat in too.    Interesting times ahead.

Might have to go to costco and pick up the 50 gallon drum of Folgers.

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14 minutes ago, buckeye said:

that's good but the 2m temp line isn't really going to be our potential problem.  Find that 850 line, that will tell a lot more.   Like I said in the other post, it practically sit on i-70. 

DARPA built some kind of weather machine inside I70.  It's uncanny how many times the battle of good and evil is right along that road lol.  

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

DARPA built some kind of weather machine inside I70.  It's uncanny how many times the battle of good and evil is right along that road lol.  

I think it actually has something to do with the 40th parallel, (which is where i-70 goes across central OH), and the subterranean geothermal coupling of the earth's crust where the gravitational vectors align with the lunar path.

 

 

....at least that's what Angry told me.

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Just now, JayPSU said:

I’m sure there is, I’m more excited that our typically overly warm and north models are not too far away from a perfect hit.

I think the FV3 is north. Trend so far not good on 12z suite

Inside 24 hours so can’t imagine the King jumping that much. It’s been so consistent 

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I think it actually has something to do with the 40th parallel, (which is where i-70 goes across central OH), and the subterranean geothermal coupling of the earth's crust where the gravitational vectors align with the lunar path.

 

 

....at least that's what Angry told me.

Lol. Should me re-named Helms Deep Hwy.  I've been worried about these 850's all week.  I don't have the advantage of any phasing over here just to your west, it's all gonna be defo or go home over here.  Hopefully I can squeeze 6 out of this maybe another 8 before I get rained on next week.  Definitely think better totals as it moves East.  May have to put up with some slop in the beginning . Of course last weekend the models slashed totals right up to the event and we basically got what they were spitting out 72 hours prior.  

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50 minutes ago, buckeye said:

ukie goes from central KY/TN line to Philly.    Don't know what happens between there, if it doesn't climb north before heading east it's probably a good hit.  If it climbs north first, we probably taint.

Haven't seen snow map yet. But it appears to be s/w - CORRECTION SE 

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