pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, buckeye said: things definitely look better than they did 24hrs ago, but damn, I'm still not confident at all on a total snow event for CMH area. Confidence boosted that we'll have a lot more frozen than wet, but per usual we are so damn close to the line it's insane. Looping through these runs, most of them have the 850 line literally lining up along the 40degree lat line which basically cuts through Columbus, for at least a few hours. I don't think freezing rain is a big threat simply because it's hard to get good accretion with 30 degrees and heavy rain. Sleet to some degree or another is definitely in the cards though for probably most of Franklin County. So here's my gut call on this looking back at similar situations and based on years of watching this stuff unfold here. If we can hold this current look or something razor close to it through 00z, then I think odds favor a good surprise vs. a bad one. Typically* on close calls like this, (4th and goal ball on the 1" line), we find away to get it in ugly, whether that may be aided by high precip rates or an underestimated push of cold. Now if models start going nw, (delay of game call), well you know.... *Typically, but I still wear the scars from Feb 13 2007, a very similar set up. cue Hoosier in 3...2...1... How did 6z Euro compare to 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, NTXYankee said: What station is he on? He used to be on that ONN station which is no more WBNS 10TV. He did a facebook live about the storm last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, pondo1000 said: How did 6z Euro compare to 0z? very close, I don't think I saw a snowfall output since WB doesn't carry 6z 0r 18z. I'm thinking if it was further nw it was still in the 'noise' range. Maybe someone else has that info. SV snowmaps are horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, dilly84 said: I70 crew cutting it close but what a run. Temps never go above freezing. This is the closest it gets. that's good but the 2m temp line isn't really going to be our potential problem. Find that 850 line, that will tell a lot more. Like I said in the other post, it practically sit on i-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: very close, I don't think I saw a snowfall output since WB doesn't carry 6z 0r 18z. I'm thinking if it was further nw it was still in the 'noise' range. Maybe someone else has that info. SV snowmaps are horrible 0z was a near blizzard and perfect for us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: that's good but the 2m temp line isn't really going to be our potential problem. Find that 850 line, that will tell a lot more. Like I said in the other post, it practically sit on i-70. Did. Very similar spot. Maybe a nudge north. Extreme se Franklin. Coshocton county it's over the eastern half but isnt there for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dilly84 said: 0z was a near blizzard and perfect for us all. But I think euro maps include sleet, frz rain in snowfall maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 the canadian group, (gem rgem), are probably going to be the nw amped ceiling on runs. Not too concerned...yet...I think Will(met) over in the NE forum once said he doesn't use the rgem outside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, buckeye said: the canadian group, (gem rgem), are probably going to be the nw amped ceiling on runs. Not too concerned...yet...I think Will(met) over in the NE forum once said he doesn't use the rgem outside of 24 hours. Not sure why he doesn't. It's the greatest model of all time. I mean it was dead on yesterday bringing the low through central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy02 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: How did 6z Euro compare to 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cincy02 said: looks about the same.... I like the fact that it's showing more of a 'fade' to lower amounts north and south. Leads me to believe the backside might perform better once temps crash, spreading the wealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Putting this storm aside for a sec... ....there is growing concensus for a storm on most of the models next week, (5-6 days out). Looks like a possible app runner. Euro has a monster that crushes seastern OH/WV, GEM is further west, and it looks like the ICON is throwing it's hat in too. Interesting times ahead. Might have to go to costco and pick up the 50 gallon drum of Folgers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Warning now! When was last one in CMH area? Anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, buckeye said: that's good but the 2m temp line isn't really going to be our potential problem. Find that 850 line, that will tell a lot more. Like I said in the other post, it practically sit on i-70. DARPA built some kind of weather machine inside I70. It's uncanny how many times the battle of good and evil is right along that road lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, pondo1000 said: Warning now! When was last one in CMH area? Anyone know? Franklin County's last Warning was 3/1/2015, snapping the streak of 1,419 days. I believe all surrounding counties (unsure of Licking actually) have had Warnings since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: DARPA built some kind of weather machine inside I70. It's uncanny how many times the battle of good and evil is right along that road lol. I think it actually has something to do with the 40th parallel, (which is where i-70 goes across central OH), and the subterranean geothermal coupling of the earth's crust where the gravitational vectors align with the lunar path. ....at least that's what Angry told me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow, even with the overly warm thermals, the GEM gives CMH 10” of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, JayPSU said: Wow, even with the overly warm thermals, the GEM gives CMH 10” of snow. Would imagine there’s taint in that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Would imagine there’s taint in that I’m sure there is, I’m more excited that our typically overly warm and north models are not too far away from a perfect hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, JayPSU said: I’m sure there is, I’m more excited that our typically overly warm and north models are not too far away from a perfect hit. I think the FV3 is north. Trend so far not good on 12z suite Inside 24 hours so can’t imagine the King jumping that much. It’s been so consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, JayPSU said: I’m sure there is, I’m more excited that our typically overly warm and north models are not too far away from a perfect hit. This one takes into account zr at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: I think the FV3 is north. Trend so far not good on 12z suite Inside 24 hours so can’t imagine the King jumping that much. It’s been so consistent Not good? I think the 12z runs have looked great or did I miss something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, pondo1000 said: I think the FV3 is north. Trend so far not good on 12z suite It appears the axis shifted and the low is stronger. Puts the low in the OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: I think it actually has something to do with the 40th parallel, (which is where i-70 goes across central OH), and the subterranean geothermal coupling of the earth's crust where the gravitational vectors align with the lunar path. ....at least that's what Angry told me. Lol. Should me re-named Helms Deep Hwy. I've been worried about these 850's all week. I don't have the advantage of any phasing over here just to your west, it's all gonna be defo or go home over here. Hopefully I can squeeze 6 out of this maybe another 8 before I get rained on next week. Definitely think better totals as it moves East. May have to put up with some slop in the beginning . Of course last weekend the models slashed totals right up to the event and we basically got what they were spitting out 72 hours prior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 FV3 is not huge diff, but slightly nw. I've noticed as we've tracked this over the past week, for some odd reason, (probably coincidence), the 12z runs like nw bumps and the 18-z-00z runs like the southeast bumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Not good? I think the 12z runs have looked great or did I kiss something Did u kiss something? LOL Appear a little warmer/north of 0z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, pondo1000 said: Did u kiss something? LOL Appear a little warmer/north of 0z runs? blame it on 3am nam watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 ukie goes from central KY/TN line to Philly. Don't know what happens between there, if it doesn't climb north before heading east it's probably a good hit. If it climbs north first, we probably taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Did u kiss something? LOL Appear a little warmer/north of 0z runs? I think they all look a lot better. They're a bit stronger hence a tad north but I'd rather risk getting a foot than being happy with 5". Just realized I typoed. Smarta*s lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 50 minutes ago, buckeye said: ukie goes from central KY/TN line to Philly. Don't know what happens between there, if it doesn't climb north before heading east it's probably a good hit. If it climbs north first, we probably taint. Haven't seen snow map yet. But it appears to be s/w - CORRECTION SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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