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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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Just now, osubrett2 said:

The deform band merely passes through W-E instead of pivoting NE as the trough stays positively titled. But with the colder trends, not sure it's totally needed to get moderate/large accumulations.

Where do you see ice being an issue? ILN doesn't seem too concerned about it for now.

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3 minutes ago, Steve said:

Is channel 4 in Columbus even relative anymore... calling for 1-3!!

I saw that this morning too.  Ben last night at 7:00 said 7-10 and this morning was a dramatic drop.  Bob’s animated map this morning showed Columbus in all snow too with some rain south so nothing added up

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It's that David mazza I was telling buckeye about. He said on video that no where in Ohio would see more than 8" and thatd be in nw ohio and any model that showed more was wrong. Guy is a moron.

1 minute ago, Steve said:

Is channel 4 in Columbus even relative anymore... calling for 1-3!!

 

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2 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

I saw that this morning too.  Ben last night at 7:00 said 7-10 and this morning was a dramatic drop.  Bob’s animated map this morning showed Columbus in all snow too with some rain south so nothing added up

Fat black (Bob N.) hates snow so he always undercuts amounts. He has a history of doing that. 

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1 minute ago, NTXYankee said:

He’s on ABC 6 now I think.  I don’t watch that channel though as I don’t have a tolerance for their news anchors 

Yeah, I don't care for 6 either. Saw Ganahl in person over the summer. He's not looking well. Love his enthusiasm for winter weather. He inspired me to build several backyard ice rinks when my kids were younger. I'm afraid the days of backyard ice rinks in central Ohio are long gone. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherzen said:

Yeah, I don't care for 6 either. Saw Ganahl in person over the summer. He's not looking well. Love his enthusiasm for winter weather. He inspired me to build several backyard ice rinks when my kids were younger. I'm afraid the days of backyard ice rinks in central Ohio are long gone. 

Oh gosh I remember him talking about that during his weather segments.  I left CMH and lived in DFW for 6 years.  I came back and every weather personality switched stations except Mike Davis it seemed like.

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things definitely look better than they did 24hrs ago, but damn, I'm still not confident at all on a total snow event for CMH area.   Confidence boosted that we'll have a lot more frozen than wet, but per usual we are so damn close to the line it's insane.   

Looping through these runs,  most of them have the 850 line literally lining up along the 40degree lat line which basically cuts through Columbus, for at least a few hours.   I don't think freezing rain is a big threat simply because it's hard to get good accretion with 30 degrees and heavy rain.   Sleet to some degree or another is definitely in the cards though for probably most of Franklin County.

So here's my gut call on this looking back at similar situations and based on years of watching this stuff unfold here.    If we can hold this current look or something razor close to it through 00z, then I think odds favor a good surprise vs. a bad one.    Typically* on close calls like this, (4th and goal ball on the 1" line),  we find away to get it in ugly, whether that may be aided by high precip rates or an underestimated push of cold.   Now if models start going nw, (delay of game call), well you know....

*Typically, but I still wear the scars from Feb 13 2007, a very similar set up.   cue Hoosier in 3...2...1...

 

 

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