OHweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This storm has been extremely challenging for all of the areas I've had to worry about from MA/NH to NJ to OH, that's for sure. Here's my first map attempt for Ohio, may tweak tomorrow... The models are still struggling with the interaction between our storm and the lobe of the polar vortex swinging in from the Northwest, but, there have been some discernable trends over the last few cycles... -The lobe of the polar vortex over Labrador/Newfoundland has trended to lift northeast noticeably faster, allowing heights to rise more in front of the storm as it moves east -The southern shortwave has trended noticeably faster, which makes an earlier phase and hard cutter very unlikely. The low track will at worst be along the Ohio River. -The later phase/more progressive storm lowers the ceiling some in Ohio, and also limits the backside snow potential for areas that don't snow ahead of and during the storm. Although the Euro and UK still show significant snow well into central and even southern Ohio and the risk for a low track well into eastern Ohio has diminished since yesterday, the higher heights ahead of the storm kind of counteracts that and may allow for a stronger push of mid-level warmth. Due to that, I favored more ice/sleet along I-70 and lower snow totals. Given the strong high to the north with anomalous cold seeping south at the surface, there will almost certainly be a corridor of sleet/freezing rain, and it may be locally significant. I-70 is as usual on the diving line, so I can't rule out more snow if the UK and Euro are correct with their weaker push of mid-level warmth, but I'd hedge against that unless they hold and other models trend towards that idea. Some models are even warmer than what this forecast would imply though. There is 12"+ potential where it stays all snow, but until we get an idea on when the progressive trend will stop didn't want to pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Still snowing here... starting to stick on the sidewalks and roads and cars... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 44 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Yea, good thing is though at this point it is a possibility. This cake hasn't set yet. This has been my thoughts all day too--- weren't the 12z runs the first to really sample? Or am I wrong on this...if just one run...let's roll trhu a couple of runs before we set things as all she wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 22 minutes ago, OHweather said: This storm has been extremely challenging for all of the areas I've had to worry about from MA/NH to NJ to OH, that's for sure. Here's my first map attempt for Ohio, may tweak tomorrow... The models are still struggling with the interaction between our storm and the lobe of the polar vortex swinging in from the Northwest, but, there have been some discernable trends over the last few cycles... -The lobe of the polar vortex over Labrador/Newfoundland has trended to lift northeast noticeably faster, allowing heights to rise more in front of the storm as it moves east -The southern shortwave has trended noticeably faster, which makes an earlier phase and hard cutter very unlikely. The low track will at worst be along the Ohio River. -The later phase/more progressive storm lowers the ceiling some in Ohio, and also limits the backside snow potential for areas that don't snow ahead of and during the storm. Although the Euro and UK still show significant snow well into central and even southern Ohio and the risk for a low track well into eastern Ohio has diminished since yesterday, the higher heights ahead of the storm kind of counteracts that and may allow for a stronger push of mid-level warmth. Due to that, I favored more ice/sleet along I-70 and lower snow totals. Given the strong high to the north with anomalous cold seeping south at the surface, there will almost certainly be a corridor of sleet/freezing rain, and it may be locally significant. I-70 is as usual on the diving line, so I can't rule out more snow if the UK and Euro are correct with their weaker push of mid-level warmth, but I'd hedge against that unless they hold and other models trend towards that idea. Some models are even warmer than what this forecast would imply though. There is 12"+ potential where it stays all snow, but until we get an idea on when the progressive trend will stop didn't want to pull the trigger. Thanks OH,, all makes good sense. I appreciate your insight and stopping in to let us know... I imagine you're slightly busy right now. . Good luck with all your forecasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, NoDoppler4TnySandz said: This has been my thoughts all day too--- weren't the 12z runs the first to really sample? Or am I wrong on this...if just one run...let's roll trhu a couple of runs before we set things as all she wrote. And heck, I am still optimistic to get several quality inches out of this...and we are slop central as that suggested sub forum for SDF-PIT....boy, talk about a miserable thread....we get screwed so bad, you would need some meds if you dared to participate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Brian Wilkes, Indy met, says there might be a secondary band of heavy snow develop over E-SE Indiana and SW Ohio as the phasing starts. The GFS somewhat shows this... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 42 minutes ago, buckeye said: Thanks OH,, all makes good sense. I appreciate your insight and stopping in to let us know... I imagine you're slightly busy right now. . Good luck with all your forecasts! Thanks...it'll be a fun/long weekend at work. Would certainly be less annoying if it was all snow. If we can rip off something cool here snow/ice wise I won't complain about the long week though. I'll hope for a colder trend for Ohio! (would probably help me too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, OHweather said: Thanks...it'll be a fun/long weekend at work. Would certainly be less annoying if it was all snow. If we can rip off something cool here snow/ice wise I won't complain about the long week though. I'll hope for a colder trend for Ohio! (would probably help me too) So are you in private forecasting now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, buckeye said: So are you in private forecasting now? Yes. Can't complain about it coming out of college, and it's much easier to get into the private sector than say the NWS or broadcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Nam looks to be coming in a good bit south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 0z NAM has a low traveling through TN and rain up to I-70. Just don't buy the rain/snow line that far north with that low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, snowlover2 said: 0z NAM has a low traveling through TN and rain up to I-70. Just don't buy the rain/snow line that far north with that low position. Especially since it has the freezing line at the Ohio river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Typical nam move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Last night we worried about a north trend now we may worry too suppressed and moisture lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 35 minutes ago, OHweather said: Yes. Can't complain about it coming out of college, and it's much easier to get into the private sector than say the NWS or broadcast. You need to eventually open your own forecasting biz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dilly84 said: Last night we worried about a north trend now we may worry too suppression and moisture lol. Could see this change begin at 18z even though it wasn't apparent on the surface. Way less phasing and a more pos. tilted trough = weaker, faster, more south. Quite honestly this looks like the nam starting to align with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: Could see this change begin at 18z even though it wasn't apparent on the surface. Way less phasing and a more pos. tilted trough = weaker, faster, more south. Quite honestly this looks like the nam starting to align with the euro. On the bright side we all get 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That's a lot like what the Euro's been trying to sell on the NAM...though a bit quicker so a little less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, dilly84 said: On the bright side we all get 3-4" Wouldn't worry about snow amounts. The takeaway is whether we're going to start seeing a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Liking the 3km NAM much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, buckeye said: You need to eventually open your own forecasting biz Had the brief thought a couple of years ago...due to various reasons went with the much safer option of just working for a well-established company instead. Certainly fun to think about though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like deform band starts cranking up sooner on the 3k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, OHweather said: Had the brief thought a couple of years ago...due to various reasons went with the much safer option of just working for a well-established company instead. Certainly fun to think about though. I took the plunge 20 years ago....best decision of my life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 20 minutes ago, buckeye said: Wouldn't worry about snow amounts. The takeaway is whether we're going to start seeing a trend. Eh just commenting on how ridiculous it is. Both 12k and 3k are too far south for me. That's my initial thought. It's just amazing this close and the changes. Would like a mix of gfs and euro tbh lol. This reminds me of another system model-wise but I can't remember the one. Models waffled until the night before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Icon wagons south too it looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: Icon wagons south too it looks like. I have a sneaky suspicion the Euro is going to cut down qpf significantly tonight. It won’t wobble on the track but it will change qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, pondo1000 said: I have a sneaky suspicion the Euro is going to cut down qpf significantly tonight. It won’t wobble on the track but it will change qpf. We can still score very nice with a few realistic tweaks on that nam run. Euro probably already had it figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Rgem is a nice hit now ....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, buckeye said: Rgem is a nice hit now ....lol Well from extreme NW Franklin county on north, yes. But that’s one hell of an “adjustment!” Edit: Nevermind. Beyond 48 hours, still hammer time so yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, buckeye said: Rgem is a nice hit now ....lol Impressive deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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