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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

Yep, I'm sure there's gonna be some sort of taint in there for a few hours but so far looks to be mostly snow for cmh and nearby.

Yea but hey, you aas wrong about ukie and euro. They're actually almost the same. So now you can go back to being an optimist lol

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Just now, dilly84 said:

Yea but hey, you aas wrong about ukie and euro. They're actually almost the same. So now you can go back to being an optimist lol

No doubt.  I'm as surprised about this euro run as I was with the gfs run.  Neither budged.    I don't know if a compromise wins or one folds to the other. 

 

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

No doubt.  I'm as surprised about this euro run as I was with the gfs run.  Neither budged.    I don't know if a compromise wins or one folds to the other. 

 

Think we should keep this system today in mind. Gfs has consistently showed a mix or plain rain. I'm getting moderate snow. And it could also be screwing with models still.

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Just now, osubrett2 said:

Based on this map issued by CLE, it appears ILN is backing down on the higher totals for I-70 and shifted the heaviest totals north. 

 

probably a good move.    I'd still go with 4-8" for CMH...    2-4 if we mix significantly.     I'll be curious if ILN hoists any watches.  I could see them maybe going with the northern tier counties and holding til tomorrow for Franklin on south....which could end up advisories too

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35 minutes ago, osubrett2 said:

Based on this map issued by CLE, it appears ILN is backing down on the higher totals for I-70 and shifted the heaviest totals north. 

6D78F82C-5623-4ABE-B74C-9222B5B9CD11.jpeg

I saw this.  Then I saw the weird cutoff at Licking County.  They may just be trying to highlight their zone.  Point and click forecast for near Westerville still has totals from this morning of total storm accumulation around 12 inches for higher end possibilities.

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3 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

I saw this.  Then I saw the weird cutoff at Licking County.  They may just be trying to highlight their zone.  Point and click forecast for near Westerville still has totals from this morning of total storm accumulation around 12 inches 

The cutoff between Licking and Muskingum County is the difference in forecasts between ILN and PBZ. The CWA border is also ID'ed south of Millersburg/Canton/Youngstown.

ILN issued 2 banks of WSW. First, 4-8" along I-70 and I-71. Second, 6-10" for the typical far NW counties south of Lima. I agree with their "initial" assessment.

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although 18z nam looks pretty similar on the surface as 12z, there were subtle enough differences, (trend?) on the 500h map that if it were to continue would probably lead to a flatter solution similar to the euro.   Less phasing of the northern stream and a broader trough. 

frustrating I can't post maps/images

for us central ohioans.... subtle = HUGE    In the end it's going to be those tiny nuances in the northern and southern stream and the development of the trough that could sink this 20 miles one way or another.

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2 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Icon with it's best run for us yet. Low through south central KY. Keeps i70 north all snow. Less moisture but at this point maybe it's best. Think we'll see better than 10:1 regardless if we get snow.

Whether it's correct or not, it's snow area is finally making sense with the track of the low.    There would probably be a sleet/frz rain zone along there somewhere.

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