Let's Talk Winter!!

[Aleksey]

Ratios will be a lot higher, closer to 15:1 even up to 18:1, so totals will be higher

[dilly84]

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

I'll gladly choke down some crow and you guys can bump troll me if this all turns around...just keeping it real.  My pessimism is only wrt the uk and euro which I've lost faith in.

Keep in mind the NAM wasn't horrible. None of them were horrible. Its literally a mb or 2 change to shift these all 25 miles southeast which is all we need. Still 3 days out, I'm not too concerned yet. 

[buckeye]

here's my happy thoughts:

1.it's snowing out

2.ggem is trying to throw together an app runner at 168...has some gfs support but its much futher east.

there ya go 

[dilly84]

Just now, buckeye said:

here's my happy thoughts:

1.it's snowing out

2.ggem is trying to throw together an app runner at 168...has some gfs support but its much futher east.

there ya go 

I honestly think this weekend will be an i70 special. You'll end up with 8-12" of wind blown snow.. FWIW the fv3 is slower and a tad further south. 

[JayPSU]

11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Sorry in advance for this but:

I fully expect to lose the euro wrt a big snowstorm.    I won't pull the trigger on what I expect until I see the euro, but right now if you're being honest with yourself and you live in CMH area the forecast probably is going to be some version of a period of snow to sleet to start with a possible complete changeover to plain rain for several hours before turning back to a period of sleet/snow.   Whatever we get after the change back is what's on the ground for the arctic air incoming.  

It sucks but if you dial down now and set your expectations according to what the models are telling us and what we know climo is around here with regard to these close call storms out of the sw.... you won't be disappointed, only surprised.   Frankly I think this is a congrats CLE, Mansfield and Findlay deal.

If the euro only slightly ticks north or holds and ukie holds....   then I give up, my god we're like 48 hrs away from precip and the euro is suppose to be the sharpest tack in the shed.  

Conversely, I remember many, many, MANY times where the GFS was being stubborn until the very end and we were all rooting for it to be right only to see it quickly cave to the Euro on a run at the very end.  I’d still want the Euro to be on our side.

[dilly84]

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

here's my happy thoughts:

1.it's snowing out

2.ggem is trying to throw together an app runner at 168...has some gfs support but its much futher east.

there ya go 

Happy thoughts for you buckeye. Name that storm

 

Four days before the storm, neither the NWS nor the television forecasters were calling for a significant event. The winter of __________ had brought several storm busts, and none of them seemed ready to buy into another one. So right up to 24-36 hours before the event began, forecasters were calling for 6″ maximum north and west of the I-71 corridor with a mix along the corridor and mostly rain to the south and east. So, right up until the end, many Ohioans were led to believe that this would be a large, but still a run-of-the-mill, snow event.

[buckeye]

Just now, JayPSU said:

Conversely, I remember many, many, MANY times where the GFS was being stubborn until the very end and we were all rooting for it to be right only to see it quickly cave to the Euro on a run at the very end.  I’d still want the Euro to be on our side.

oh no doubt, if there were only one model that we could have on our side....absolutely it would be the euro.   What bothers me is the gfs and ggem not moving in the slightest direction towards it, in fact the gem got worse.  It makes me fairly confident the euro is going to crack north at 12z.   Hope I'm wrong.

[buckeye]

2 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Happy thoughts for you buckeye. Name that storm

 

Four days before the storm, neither the NWS nor the television forecasters were calling for a significant event. The winter of __________ had brought several storm busts, and none of them seemed ready to buy into another one. So right up to 24-36 hours before the event began, forecasters were calling for 6″ maximum north and west of the I-71 corridor with a mix along the corridor and mostly rain to the south and east. So, right up until the end, many Ohioans were led to believe that this would be a large, but still a run-of-the-mill, snow event.

that's hard because when they say forecasters were calling for somethinig, it's subjective.   I usually don't listen to forecasters.  I do remember model runs.

[buckeye]

the ukie is out.  Not sure what to think without seeing snowfall maps but it takes a 997 low to central KY then east northeast.   Could very well be warmer than 00z I suspect.

[dilly84]

6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

that's hard because when they say forecasters were calling for somethinig, it's subjective.   I usually don't listen to forecasters.  I do remember model runs.

March 08

[dilly84]

4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

the ukie is out.  Not sure what to think without seeing snowfall maps but it takes a 997 low to central KY then east northeast.   Could very well be warmer than 00z I suspect.

Seems like itd be a good track

[buckeye]

in the "scraping the bottom of the barrel file".... the navgem is a safe hit....also weaker.

[Cincy12]

Just now, dilly84 said:

Seems like itd be a good track

Track is good. Looks like the cold is not there though 

[buckeye]

Just now, dilly84 said:

March 08

hmmmm,   I remember the really big accum numbers starting to show up 2 days out.  Granted, no one was taking  them seriously including Ganahl, but I do remember very well some clown maps showing 2' right up i-71.

[Cincy12]

Actually the UKmet appears to be a really good run for us? 

 

[iluvsnow]

The GFS3 seems a tick north too.....not a terrible track....but the WTOD does take rain to I-70 for a few hours.....looks decent on the back side. Low hits the wall just south of the river....and scoots int WVA.

[dilly84]

Fv3 has a perfect track. Brings mixing though. Same issue we've been having... here's the map.

[osubrett2]

I assume ILN will update this, dependent on the Euro. In their AFD as someone mentioned earlier, they sided strongly with the Euro. Or we can see a repeat of the 1/3/14 storm with egg on their face. With as little as 12 hours before the storm, they had warnings issued along the 71 corridor for an all snow accumulation of ~8" when NO model supported that.

 

[JayPSU]

1 minute ago, osubrett2 said:

I assume ILN will update this, dependent on the Euro. In their AFD as someone mentioned earlier, they sided strongly with the Euro. Or we can see a repeat of the 1/3/14 storm with egg on their face. With as little as 12 hours before the storm, they had warnings issued along the 71 corridor for an all snow accumulation of ~8" when NO model supported that.

 

Wow, ballsy.  

[buckeye]

5 minutes ago, osubrett2 said:

I assume ILN will update this, dependent on the Euro. In their AFD as someone mentioned earlier, they sided strongly with the Euro. Or we can see a repeat of the 1/3/14 storm with egg on their face. With as little as 12 hours before the storm, they had warnings issued along the 71 corridor for an all snow accumulation of ~8" when NO model supported that.

 

Yes!  That is the storm I could not recall.   I remember we were on the line with every model and the nam was not playing ball, it kept showing the 850 go north of us.   I made a big deb downer post that morning .   It ended up being a nowcast and we got thumped overnight with like 9 or 10".   If I recall it stayed snow even in places in southern OH.

[dilly84]

So let's be optimistic. Here are 4 main runs for 12z. I dont have access to ukie snow maps but, we know most show a mix aside the nam, but the snow map alone shows how close we are to a big snow. We dont need much wobble for these to be accurate 

[buckeye]

gefs is bad.  You'd expect it to be almost a carbon copy of the OP at this range but man, most of the members take a track right up the ohio river.    Just more plot thickner if the euro holds.

[JayPSU]

5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Yes!  That is the storm I could not recall.   I remember we were on the line with every model and the nam was not playing ball, it kept showing the 850 go north of us.   I made a big deb downer post that morning .   It ended up being a nowcast and we got thumped overnight with like 9 or 10".   If I recall it stayed snow even in places in southern OH.

I think I remember that one!  That was the one where even though we live like 10 minutes from each other it started absolutely ripping at my house and you were still Debbie downing it because it hadn’t started there yet, then bang it snowed at about 2” an hour for 5 hours.  That was awesome.  I remember a big gust of wind that accompanied the start of the snow…it knocked over my front porch chairs.  Man that storm was sweet.

[buckeye]

ok so Dilly is good cop.... I'm bad cop 

[buckeye]

Just now, JayPSU said:

I think I remember that one!  That was the one where even though we live like 10 minutes from each other it started absolutely ripping at my house and you were still Debbie downing it because it hadn’t started there yet, then bang it snowed at about 2” an hour for 5 hours.  That was awesome.  I remember a big gust of wind that accompanied the start of the snow…it knocked over my front porch chairs.  Man that storm was sweet.

yes, you and pondo kept telling me it was coming and when it hits it'll be like a wall.....that was an understatement.    I honestly think the precip rates never letting up may have helped it stay snow.

[pondo1000]

Just now, buckeye said:

yes, you and pondo kept telling me it was coming and when it hits it'll be like a wall.....that was an understatement.    I honestly think the precip rates never letting up may have helped it stay snow.

Hah, I remember that. Flakes were tiny in the beginning!

[Steve]

So watching The Local News Channel 10 1 to 3 inches for Central Ohio...

[Cincy12]

[dilly84]

1 minute ago, Cincy12 said:

Does it take into account mixing? If not that's a great run for us.

[buckeye]

Just now, Cincy12 said:

Look at that warm tongue going up the river valley.   WVU is right at the tip of the tongue.  I remember more than once being a student in Morgantown and watching that exact scenario above play out.   We were raining  and Ohio was snowing.