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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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5 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Still brings the r/s line up to cmh. I'd assume, because like the NAM, it reaches 996mb. But the surface low doesn't get as far north as it did on the nam. So id take the rs line 25 miles southeast due to icon being icon.

the path of that low from hr 54-66 is insane.    Interesting because on SV it's more of a straight path east

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

gem looks about the same too.

I'm starting to wonder if the euro is going to be the caver.    I mean we're inside 60 hours now and are still as confused as to what's going to fall from the sky on Saturday as we were 5 days ago. :arrowhead:

 

Icon highest snow total in Ohio is 6". That also makes little sense 

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Just now, osubrett2 said:

Eh, I don't know what I think about this. It's definitely drier. SLP from Louisville to south of Pittsburgh (before a wonky jaunt SE) is concerning. Resolution is obviously not helping with definition of the thermals.

yea, lost a lot of our back end love on this run....   kind of opposite of what the nam showed

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3 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

It you work for ILN NWS office you probably are reaching for the Maalox....

If I was a forecaster...I would never have put that map out they did in the early morning run. Too many unknowns to put that out there. 

Oh trust me, there are a lot folks walking around here carrying rumors of a foot of snow on Saturday.   Some of the local mets are at fault too for planting the seed.   Of course the book on this has yet to be written.....soooo

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Just now, dilly84 said:

CLE did the same lol

I was surprised to see CLE put out a snow map this early, and given the different model solutions. CLE leaned heavily on the euro for their forecast... apparently because it handles storms coming out the southwest the best. I had thought the Euro had a bias of holding energy back in the southwest. 

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8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Gem appears to have gone further north actually.

its' all up to a 12 hour old euro run now.

The low made it further north into WV, but not really any further north into Ohio. Just brings the rain maybe 20 miles further north. Snow location is pretty much the same just less moisture. Still has a swath of 10"

todays:gem_asnow_neus_13.thumb.png.63d0088251366ae059b354199bd99bc0.png

last nights

gem_asnow_neus_15.thumb.png.6d9c1a6585de4ec47541900c45f5bc84.png

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Sorry in advance for this but:

I fully expect to lose the euro wrt a big snowstorm.    I won't pull the trigger on what I expect until I see the euro, but right now if you're being honest with yourself and you live in CMH area the forecast probably is going to be some version of a period of snow to sleet to start with a possible complete changeover to plain rain for several hours before turning back to a period of sleet/snow.   Whatever we get after the change back is what's on the ground for the arctic air incoming.  

It sucks but if you dial down now and set your expectations according to what the models are telling us and what we know climo is around here with regard to these close call storms out of the sw.... you won't be disappointed, only surprised.   Frankly I think this is a congrats CLE, Mansfield and Findlay deal.

If the euro only slightly ticks north or holds and ukie holds....   then I give up, my god we're like 48 hrs away from precip and the euro is suppose to be the sharpest tack in the shed.  

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Just now, buckeye said:

Sorry in advance for this but:

I fully expect to lose the euro wrt a big snowstorm.    I won't pull the trigger on what I expect until I see the euro, but right now if you're being honest with yourself and you live in CMH area the forecast probably is going to be some version of a period of snow to sleet to start with a possible complete changeover to plain rain for several hours before turning back to a period of sleet/snow.   Whatever we get after the change back is what's on the ground for the arctic air incoming.  

It sucks but if you dial down now and set your expectations according to what the models are telling us and what we know climo is around here with regard to these close call storms out of the sw.... you won't be disappointed, only surprised.   Frankly I think this is a congrats CLE, Mansfield and Findlay deal.

If the euro only slightly ticks north or holds and ukie holds....   then I give up, my god we're like 48 hrs away from precip and the euro is suppose to be the sharpest tack in the shed.  

Good ol pessimism lmao. 

 

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Just now, buckeye said:

I'll gladly choke down some crow and you guys can bump troll me if this all turns around...just keeping it real.  My pessimism is only wrt the uk and euro which I've lost faith in.

JMA further south lol 

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