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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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13 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

You work for any field offices?

Unfortunately no. Just some PT work for a financial institution. Hopefully FT soon.

But regarding the NAM, the snows for the I-70 crew come Saturday night into Sunday morning. Late afternoon and evening, the mix line is just north of I-70 before crashing.

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Man I just ran through the 6z and what a disappointment to see the gfs 6z hold serve....I would have bet 10" of seasonal snowfall it was going to trend south.

thing to watch for is that magical time just around 48-56 hrs on the models.  That's the time when you get that initial move north northeast out of OK and we are at our most vulnerable for the wtod.    Nam  had some good and bad.   Bad was it came further north, but good was it's starting to show snow wrap around right as the temps crash.  You can see it really well on the snowfall maps.  

We really don't want to see this low get too close to the OH river, that's almost an assured recipe for mixing here.  Central KY is about the farthest north we want it.    I have a sinking feeling that we won't feel any more confident after the 12z runs....    The lead up to this is soooooo classic for our area....and there's a history of both good and bad outcomes

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1 minute ago, osubrett2 said:

Unfortunately no. Just some PT work for a financial institution. Hopefully FT soon.

But regarding the NAM, the snows for the I-70 crew come Saturday night into Sunday morning. Late afternoon and evening, the mix line is just north of I-70 before crashing.

People ask me all the time why I didnt go to meteorology school, I always tell them look at the Mets that struggle to find jobs as it is. Great field if you can find work in it. Unfortunately its not an easy task.

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Just now, buckeye said:

We really don't want to see this low get too close to the OH river, that's almost an assured recipe for mixing here.  Central KY is about the farthest north we want it.    I have a sinking feeling that we won't feel any more confident after the 12z runs....    The lead up to this is soooooo classic for our area....and there's a history of both good and bad outcomes

Im not too concerned with the NAM. Biggest thing is that it was significantly stronger. A couple mb higher and r/s line is less likely to reach i70. Still appeared to be near a perfect run. And the storm is being sampled now. Hope we dont see too many wobbles after today's runs.

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3 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Im not too concerned with the NAM. Biggest thing is that it was significantly stronger. A couple mb higher and r/s line is less likely to reach i70. Still appeared to be near a perfect run. And the storm is being sampled now. Hope we dont see too many wobbles after today's runs.

that can also work against us.... stronger storm has a stronger wtod...plus a stronger storm is more likely to gain more latitude.

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Just now, buckeye said:

that can also work against us.... stronger storm has a stronger wtod...plus a stronger storm is more likely to gain more latitude.

I think he means like if the storm is weaker say 1000 instead of 996 it wont the push the r/s line as far north. 

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Just now, buckeye said:

that can also work against us.... stronger storm has a stronger wtod...plus a stronger storm is more likely to gain more latitude.

Yes, but the 3k was about 2mb weaker and the low is in south central KY. Because of that I'd guess the 12k was overly ramped. BUT, I'd rather have the 12k where it is 3 days out than the low to be cutting through Columbus lol

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

icon definitely south looking at the snow maps.   Let's see how that translates on TT

Still brings the r/s line up to cmh. I'd assume, because like the NAM, it reaches 996mb. But the surface low doesn't get as far north as it did on the nam. So id take the rs line 25 miles southeast due to icon being icon.

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