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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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5 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

I think we have the general track, now it's up to how the models handle the thermals. One false move and we will be in a bad ice storm. Fingers crossed.

I think for us,anyone within 30 miles either way of I70 are safe form any ice.  Fingers crossed 

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I tend to think the 6z/18z runs being bad rule is over-emphasized once inside of a couple of days, but for some reason the "off hour" Euro runs have bumped north the last two days only for the next 12z or 0z run to come back south.  The 6z Euro was a tick north but will be curious to see if the 12z holds. 

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2 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

I think we're all collectively holding our breaths for today's runs knowing the storm is now being sampled lol. I know I'm a tad nervous.

That's the problem with being in the bullseye 2 days out - - nowhere to go but down... 

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4 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Very tiny tick. But the rain/snow line makes it closer to i70 but never gets there. Exhale lol.

It's also much stronger. 996mb in central KY this run compared to 1001mb on 6z

Was just about to comment on the strength. We'll see if that is a trend with the others or NAM being NAM.

Going to analyze the 2m, 850, and 925 temps in a second, but I'm at least liking the deform band that is now showing.

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